Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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1596. angiest
Quoting PELSPROG:
Looks like it might be Fargo.


looking forward to watching this on my laptop instead of my phone. Looks likea very entertaining run.
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looks like a little weekness in the gulf might pull 93l north a bit NOT MUCH tho
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Quoting gugi182:
On Friday it's expected that 93L passes really close to the coast of northern Honduras and on Saturday Belize or the southern portion of Mexico on the Yucatan Peninsula what will be the classification of 93L?

A. Invest
B. Tropical Depression
C. Tropical Storm
D. Hurricane

On Saturday is expected that 97L passes by the Lesser Antilles. Monday threw or north of Puerto Rico or on Tuesday threw or north of the Dominican republic before it reaches Puerto Rico what do you expect 97L will be classified and with what intensity if any?

A. Invest
B. Tropical Depression
C. Tropical Storm
D. Hurricane


CC
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31455
1593. Patrap
Quoting jazzygal:


Hi Pat, That sounds great. Does NOLA still have a mandatory evacuation for a Cat 2 or higher? Not saying it will happen, just need to have a plan to get there if I need to. Thanks


As with Gustav,,this place was like a Kansas Bar at 1 am..

Empty.




They a fine group and I met with the creator a week ago.


evacuteer.org
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127547
i live on the north coast of Honduras...i will let you know what the deal is...based on what i saw last year with predictions...i expect a sunny day with a few clouds....no matter what the models or the radar show...i think they have the rez turned up too much
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Quoting angiest:
gfs seems to show a hurricane hitting Oklahoma at 312 hours. ;)
Looks like it might be Fargo.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hey press i got 100 million locked up in a swiss bank account only problem i need a small 10,000 release charge for the funds while you are at it maybe if you can u can help me out i will give you half of funds if you help me


:)


glad to help, buddy
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
1589. gugi182
On Friday it's expected that 93L passes really close to the coast of northern Honduras and on Saturday Belize or the southern portion of Mexico on the Yucatan Peninsula what will be the classification of 93L?

A. Invest
B. Tropical Depression
C. Tropical Storm
D. Hurricane

On Saturday is expected that 97L passes by the Lesser Antilles. Monday threw or north of Puerto Rico or on Tuesday threw or north of the Dominican republic before it reaches Puerto Rico what do you expect 97L will be classified and with what intensity if any?

A. Invest
B. Tropical Depression
C. Tropical Storm
D. Hurricane
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxmobilejim:
can you post a link to the site?



no but sure here you go



Link
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114719
Quoting Neapolitan:

2005. There was a weak, little-remembered storm called "Katrina", followed by TS Lee on the 31st. ;-)
Sometimes i wish Katrina was a person so that I could whoop the crap out of her.The same goes for Ike,and Andrew.And for other storms to.
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1586. nigel20
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Only 5/6 in September?

I don't believe it.

Didn't 2010 have 10/11 named storms from late august through September?
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been gone all afternoon looks like the models are trending west pretty soon texas
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Quoting wxmobilejim:
can you post a link to the site?


Link
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31455
1581. hotrods
Levi, KmanIsl, Drak, P451,Tropical, and the rest of you and you know who you are have explain very well as to what is going on with 97L. Patterns, upper air dynamics, the whole 9 yards and its help me to learn as well, thanks guys! The system hasn't even developed yet so models will be models until it developes.
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1580. Patrap
We were in the Upper 9th Ward doing Tear outs as I got back from Memphis with the Fam who evaced there for K,,when we rode out to the Industrial Canal and saw the Water a foot from the Top from Rita as she cruised by South of here,,one can pack a Budget 16ft really fast when one needs to.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127547
Here is the rapid scan on 93l Link
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1578. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

:)
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i oder the atcf too update
can you post a link to the site?
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Quoting Patrap:
Im gonna,in time in a few days,,put together a co-blog to my Prep page with Model tutorials and such.

That can fill a need I feel.

Feel free to wu-mail me any Links and tutorials one has.



Hi Pat, That sounds great. Does NOLA still have a mandatory evacuation for a Cat 2 or higher? Not saying it will happen, just need to have a plan to get there if I need to. Thanks
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Quoting weatherh98:
we need to buy some more troll food


They prefer cabrito'.
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Quoting P451:


That is because the 6Z and 18Z runs aren't complete runs. They don't incorporate the volume of data the 00z and 12z runs do. I forget exactly what the difference is but it's a pretty big one.

This is also why 6z and 18z runs will be similar - and 0z and 12z runs will be similar. While any attempt to find continuity between a 6z or 18z AND a 0z or 12z run will be difficult.

Mostly because global upper air soundings are done only at 0z and 12z. Upper air soundings are just about the most important thing that goes into those models...they provide the wind speed, wind direction, temperature, dew point, and pressure heights for the entire atmosphere.
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Quoting presslord:
I just got the nicest e-mail from the loveliest Nigerian widow lady. Seems she wants to transfer half her late husband's $60 million estate into my personal checking account...guess my troubles are over...

oh, you got one as well. Funny that, I get one everyday from a different old lady. I didn't know Nigeria was so wealthy. Oh and I get emails from yahoo and Microsoft telling me i have won 2-4million almost everyday in my junk mail.
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1572. HarryMc
Quoting P451:
While everyone is zeroing in on details of 276 and 360 hour model runs - taking every little bit from them as a potential situation - the wise thing to do is to step back and do the following.

Realize model runs outside of three days are not realistic.

What you can do is see that for a couple of days now these models have been attempting to develop a major hurricane and have it striking anywhere from Texas to South Pressolina.

In that what you take from these runs is this:

The models are picking up on the fact that the atmosphere has been predicted to be conducive to major hurricane development. Steering is such that the Gulf Coast and SE US coastline could potentially see a system steered in this direction. If a system were to find itself in this modeled atmosphere then it would be expected to develop significantly and be steered in the general direction of the US in the 12-16 day period of time.

AND?

That's it!

Nothing more. NOTHING.

I see a lot of folks looking for precision in what they see in these model runs. That's not what they are meant to be used for - at all!



ACTUALLY... Glad you brought that up. I'm helping as a Ready Sponsor and I have been doing press releases and stuff. This is National Preparedness Month.

Visit Link

TIA
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Quoting Neapolitan:

2005. A weak, little-remembered storm called "Katrina".


Also made it to Rita a month later, the fourth-most intense Atlantic hurricane ever recorded and the most intense tropical cyclone ever observed in the Gulf of Mexico.
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Quoting Patrap:


Wasnt it TD-13 that was written off at one time ?



yup forgotten then known
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Latest GFS run now point at LA / TX landfall proving what many of us have being saying here since yesterday. Too early to tell and everyone from the East Coast to Texas Mexico border need to be in alert but not alarmed.

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1568. JGreco
Quoting weatherh98:
we need to buy some more troll food


They sell some organic stuff over a Pet Land:)
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Quoting TomTaylor:
5/6 is a lot lol, I'd be surprised if we got 6.

I was just surprised that they would only call for one October storm after calling for a very active September.


Why? September is supposed to be more active than August, and there is a good chance we see 6/7 named storms this month, so...

I doubt we'll only have one named storm in October also though.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31455
1566. angiest
gfs seems to show a hurricane hitting Oklahoma at 312 hours. ;)
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i oder the atcf too update

Wow, 1000 posts since i went to bed at 3:30am this morning, 5.5hr and 1000 posts later. I wonder how many a useless **** and how many are worthwhile info.

It's 09:00 here in Sydney and a bone chilling 48.0°F. Shooting for a balmy high of 62°F.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you are not falling for that one are ya


haven't gotten one in a while...but this week I've gotten a couple...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
we need to buy some more troll food
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
1562. Patrap
Quoting Neapolitan:

2005. A weak, little-remembered storm called "Katrina".


Wasnt it TD-13 that was written off at one time ?

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127547
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Only 5/6 in September?

I don't believe it.
5/6 is a lot lol, I'd be surprised if we got 6.

I was just surprised that they would only call for one October storm after calling for a very active September.
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1560. nigel20
Isn't the present track forecast for 98L incorrect, as the ships intensity forecast shows 45MPH in 24Hours?
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This latest GFS run must be mistake, because I'm quite positive the "twins" definitely said that a late August storm, cat 4 or so, would impact FL, Ga and several other east coast states.

Who are you going to believe, a complex hurricane model or a couple of hot psychics?
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1547
Hawaii - .....ummm I think the storms followed me here.....
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Whoa, I left this morning and there wasn't even Franklin. So Franklin is here and Harvey as well? Busy day downt there!


No, No.

We had Franklin and Gert a few days ago. And we do not have Harvey yet, but we should soon.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31455
1556. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting presslord:
I just got the nicest e-mail from the loveliest Nigerian widow lady. Seems she wants to transfer half her late husband's $60 million estate into my personal checking account...guess my troubles are over...
you are not falling for that one are ya
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Hi, Shedman. Sept. should give us a better opportunity to forecast major weather systems.
Now it looks like the blog posters are in pre-season.
And as usual, when storms ramp up, so will the TROLLS
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
If the invests and the wave behind 98L develops, then we would get to K before the end of august.
When has that ever happened?


Ummm....2005.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31455
Quoting aislinnpaps:
So we do have Franklin yet?
You mean Harvey?.No.
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
If the invests and the wave behind 98L develops, then we would get to K before the end of august.
When has that ever happened?

2005. There was a weak, little-remembered storm called "Katrina", followed by TS Lee on the 31st. ;-)
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Quoting presslord:


Midwest DOOM


Typical Midwestcaster!!!
Watch out Des Moines!!
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1549. wpb
Quoting hotrods:
To much teasing going on for Florida from the model runs, take each run with a grain of salt.
agree
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Franklin? You mean Harvey?


Whoa, I left this morning and there wasn't even Franklin. So Franklin is here and Harvey as well? Busy day downt there!
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1546. emcf30
Quoting presslord:
I just got the nicest e-mail from the loveliest Nigerian widow lady. Seems she wants to transfer half her late husband's $60 million estate into my personal checking account...guess my troubles are over...


LOL, just don't forget to send her $5200.00 to make the transfer.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.