Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting redwagon:

After landfall 93 will be forced to surrender its moisture to the vapor wheel spinning around the TX high.
This is great: this wheel is the only thing providing rain right now to TX.


Yea thats great!!!! hope its beneficial
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
Quoting redwagon:

After landfall 93 will be forced to surrender its moisture to the vapor wheel spinning around the TX high.
This is great: this wheel is the only thing providing rain right now to TX.


The wheel in the sky keeps on turning?
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grrr



i oder the NHC too update
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1643. bwi
Quoting violet312s:
I love the buoy postings on pressure changes but when you post the image if you could also say where the buoy is located that would be super helpful. Some of you do that, some do not :)

Going to become even more important with all the invests out there. Hard to have to pull up the buoy link to cross reference locations.

Merci beaucoup!


I'm old fashioned, but I prefer the old or "recent" website of the National Data Buoy Center. Then just click on a region and then a buoy...
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/rmd.shtml
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Quoting charlottefl:
Wow, that's a change, look at the flow over the N US and Canada:



Really zonal? Yeah.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32039
Wow, that's a change, look at the flow over the N US and Canada:

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Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
1639. angiest
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


who put the historical storm tracks in gfs? That's the 1900 storm. Earlier we kept getting Donna.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1638. Patrap
What was it P.T. Barnum used to say ?,, Gro should know,, he sold him a lotta tents.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128279
Well I'm off for tonight.See ya'll tomorrow.Oh and ignore my post of beating Katrina I don't condone physical violence.Night.
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Quoting weatherh98:
looks like a little weekness in the gulf might pull 93l north a bit NOT MUCH tho

After landfall 93 will be forced to surrender its moisture to the vapor wheel spinning around the TX high.
This is great: this wheel is the only thing providing rain right now to TX.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3243
Quoting wxmobilejim:
I got it now the second link worked. Thanks Taz!



your welcome
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Quoting hotrods:
Levi, KmanIsl, Drak, P451,Tropical, and the rest of you and you know who you are have explain very well as to what is going on with 97L. Patterns, upper air dynamics, the whole 9 yards and its help me to learn as well, thanks guys! The system hasn't even developed yet so models will be models until it developes.


Feel free to check out my blog...
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Quoting sailingallover:
Hi Everyone!
So I sailed last week for Trinidad..had a great sail until Saturday 30nm north of Grenada when a tanker ship ran into me..didn't sink amazingly enough but a fair amount of damage.

So now I'll be in Grenada marine out of range of all the storms( hope) instead of Trinidad..



What sorta boat are you on?
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Quoting Tazmanian:
ugh


sorry some times am good some times am not good in posting links


may be some one els can post it for you
I got it now the second link worked. Thanks Taz!
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1631. angiest
Quoting washingtonian115:
Andrew is in the post. That's funny.


it's ha ha only serious. I drew the short straw for hurricane rideout this year.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1630. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Still no renumber...Gang, don't think 93L will be declared until 11PM at the earliest.

Could be wrong though, JMO.




new two will come out at any time
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Quoting jimhondo:
once i get my weather station working...i will try to figure out how to direct feed the thing...it hooks into my usb port...i suppose there is a way to broadcast it....help required with that for sure


Link
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ugh


sorry some times am good some times am not good in posting links


may be some one els can post it for you
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Still no renumber...Gang, don't think 93L will be declared until 11PM at the earliest.

Could be wrong though, JMO.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32039
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
those emails have been floating around a few years now funny i wonder if anybody ever really falls for them anymore


I suspect we'd be surprised how many folks fall for them...
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Quoting PELSPROG:
And Andrew!
Andrew is in the post.
Quoting angiest:
btw, if the 18z gfs somehow were actually to verify, I will be liveblogging the event from the Texas Medical Center, until we get blown away.

Snark flag: ON
That's funny.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Why? September is supposed to be more active than August, and there is a good chance we see 6/7 named storms this month, so...

I doubt we'll only have one named storm in October also though.
I'm not saying it's not possible. I'm just saying I'd be surprised if we saw 6 storms in September. It's a pretty rare occurrence.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
oops



Link

Thanks this one works
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Hi Everyone!
So I sailed last week for Trinidad..had a great sail until Saturday 30nm north of Grenada when a tanker ship ran into me..didn't sink amazingly enough but a fair amount of damage.

So now I'll be in Grenada marine out of range of all the storms( hope) instead of Trinidad..

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1620. Patrap
Quoting jazzygal:



Thanks. I remember that one. I got in town at 10AM Sat. and had the house done and the parents and I were on the road by 1PM. Took us 8 hours to get to N. Miss. but it was OK. Now it is only Mom and want to be able to get to her. I'm off to read the evac. order. Thanks again.


Your a Great example of reacting with a solid Plan jazzygal.

Thanx for the sharing.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128279
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24021
Quoting Levi32:
This is where the GFS may be pulling one of its odd stunts. At 228 hours the Texas ridge is directly northwest of the storm, with the weakness east of it to the north of the storm. However, the GFS plows the storm northwest right towards the center of the high, something that would be unlikely to happen. I would expect more of a northward turn there.



It's simple, they are taking into account my forecast of Aug 15th, 2011.

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Quoting wxmobilejim:

That link didn't work.


The page won't display error? It does work, you just have to keep refreshing until it comes up, LOL.

I have the same problem, and it annoys me.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32039
oops



Link
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1615. nigel20

Invest 93L, later guys.
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trash any of these things,
trolls,
dumb information,
and,
MODEL RUNS OVER 144 HOURS OUT THEY WILL BE WRONG
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
1613. angiest
btw, if the 18z gfs somehow were actually to verify, I will be liveblogging the event from the Texas Medical Center, until we get blown away.

Snark flag: ON
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting Patrap:


As with Gustav,,this place was like a Kansas Bar at 1 am..

Empty.




They a fine group and I met with the creator a week ago.


evacuteer.org



Thanks. I remember that one. I got in town at 10AM Sat. and had the house done and the parents and I were on the road by 1PM. Took us 8 hours to get to N. Miss. but it was OK. Now it is only Mom and want to be able to get to her. I'm off to read the evac. order. Thanks again.
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quote me now if the storm makes it in the gulf, landfall lake charles, LA. to many storms have a very similar path that is projected
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


He did...

That link didn't work.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Sometimes i wish Katrina was a person so that I could whoop the crap out of her.The same goes for Ike,and Andrew.And for other storms to.
And Andrew!
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Quoting Patrap:
Experience on Majors,,well sometime ,like with GEorges and few others,,they can carve a path

Kinda like Jr. behind Gordon
so whatever follows 97L will blow a tire and hit the wall ?
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
1607. Patrap
93L Rainbow

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128279
1606. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting presslord:


glad to help, buddy
those emails have been floating around a few years now funny i wonder if anybody ever really falls for them anymore
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Quoting gugi182:
We have a new Invest98 off AFRICA



your a little late lol
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once i get my weather station working...i will try to figure out how to direct feed the thing...it hooks into my usb port...i suppose there is a way to broadcast it....help required with that for sure
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Quoting wxmobilejim:

Why won't you send me the link?




no one can take a joke lol


Link
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I'll let the others give you an in-depth update, but here is the short story:

Unfavorable environment right now, with a lot of dry air. However, near 50W-55W, it will enter a favorable environment, and may have enough time to strengthen into a tropical depression or storm. It is likely the Lesser Antilles will be affected, with possible impacts in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas/Cuba. It is still a little too early to know for sure, but the pattern supports a USA landfall whenever it gets there.


this pattern wont be here long though, the mjo is returning along with moisture we shouldreally have a nice peak this hurricane season
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
lol when the gfs was hitting florida 5 runs in a row. noone cared a whole lot now that it is texas panicc.. haha. Guys just remember Even the NHC is hundreds of miles off 5 days out. We are talking ten days out.
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Quoting wxmobilejim:

Why won't you send me the link?


He did...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32039
1599. gugi182
We have a new Invest98 off AFRICA
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Quoting Tazmanian:



no but sure here you go



Link

Why won't you send me the link?
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Quoting hotrods:
Levi, KmanIsl, Drak, P451,Tropical, and the rest of you and you know who you are have explain very well as to what is going on with 97L. Patterns, upper air dynamics, the whole 9 yards and its help me to learn as well, thanks guys! The system hasn't even developed yet so models will be models until it developes.


I'll let the others give you an in-depth update, but here is the short story:

Unfavorable environment right now, with a lot of dry air. However, near 50W-55W, it will enter a favorable environment, and may have enough time to strengthen into a tropical depression or storm. It is likely the Lesser Antilles will be affected, with possible impacts in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas/Cuba. It is still a little too early to know for sure, but the pattern supports a USA landfall whenever it gets there.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32039
1596. angiest
Quoting PELSPROG:
Looks like it might be Fargo.


looking forward to watching this on my laptop instead of my phone. Looks likea very entertaining run.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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