Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Tazmanian:



sure it have DOOM for TX lol


It's had doom on the menu for the gulf coast the past couple days. And you know what they say about portion control nowadays. I certainly don't think I'd like the full plate. Personally, I'd take a half-order of doom medium-rare and a side of working traffic lights.
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Quoting presslord:


What sorta boat are you on?

42 Bavaria..
www.sailingallover.com
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Quoting snotly:
Is the drought in Somalia caused by La Nina?


Nope, it's from a lack of rain.. LOL Joking
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1693. Patrap
Quoting charlottefl:


Well that's all it gave me anyways...



I had a Coinstar machine do that once..

: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
1692. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
iam going to throw something out there maybe 97 is the decoy for real deal 98l behind


and as of now with 98l at a medium chance it is hereby given a designation of poss T.C.F.A. before 97 and if 93 don't be name which it should unless closeness to land begins to affect it then 98 may become harvey and irene 97 will follow
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1691. Mucinex
NHC is going to wait for 93L to get in the EPac before naming since EPac is has fallen behind on named storms.;)
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Quoting Clearwater1:
That's not the end of the run, goes on to cross the gulf and hit tx.


Well that's all it gave me anyways...
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1689. P451
Quoting 12george1:

Well, that may leave the possibility of it never being classified as TD8/Harvey


Sure it would. It would be upgraded to Hurricane Harvey if such an event would unfold. It would be known as a system that rapidly made the transition from 93L to TD 8 to TS Harvey to HU Harvey. They would just clarify as much in the post season analysis.

It wouldn't just exclude TD or TS status. The next storm after it wouldn't be called TD 8 it would be TD 9.

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
Quoting charlottefl:


End of the run:

That's not the end of the run, goes on to cross the gulf and hit tx.
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I have to ditto P451.. models past a week are just to inaccurate to base anything on..
And this year the models have not be so great..
Emily was supposed to hit STT for 4 days as a Cat 1 from Wednesday until Sunday afternoon..
Ended up south of PR as a Tropical Storm on Tuesday
Gert was supposed to go over STM and STT but ended up way NE as a fish storm..
93L was forecast to be a TS to my East by last Saturday and go over Martinique.. I have the weather fax from last Saturday as I was sailing down still...
The models a week out are ok for general weather and once a storm has developed but for undeveloped waves a week out they are only good to show potential is there.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Can anyone brief me on what happened on the 18z GFS? Thanks in advance.


End of the run:

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1685. P451
Quoting nofailsafe:


Heard on the 6 o'clock news on KHOU the HH flight that was scheduled for 93L ran into mechanical troubles. Can anyone confirm that?


Yes, it did. Almost made it there then quickly turned around and went back.

Never got to sample the center.

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
Quoting MississippiWx:
If recon were in 93L, we would already have TD8 or TS Harvey. Hopefully 93L doesn't strengthen quickly into a minimal hurricane because the people of Belize will have no warning time.

Well, that may leave the possibility of it never being classified as TD8/Harvey
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1683. Patrap
Im listening to Hall and Oats,.."Maneater".

For the Lady in L.A.



..watch out boy's she'll chew u up..

LoL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Can anyone brief me on what happened on the 18z GFS? Thanks in advance.



sure it have DOOM for TX lol
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1681. P451
Well, goodnight 93L, you will possibly wake up as Harvey.

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
93L does indeed look to be closed off now. It's not a very strong low level circulation, but it does appear to be finally closed. However, CIMSS 850mb vorticity map still showing an elongated area of vorticity with 93L.




Meanwhile, over in Africa the CIMSS 850mb vort map is showing three strong vorticity maximums associated with our waves. That one over around -10E will be the next one to come off Africa and currently looks stronger than the other two ahead of it (97L & 98L).




That wave is also the one the ECMWF and GFS pretty much have as a depression before exiting Africa in 5 days.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
If recon were in 93L, we would already have TD8 or TS Harvey. Hopefully 93L doesn't strengthen quickly into a minimal hurricane because the people of Belize will have no warning time.


Heard on the 6 o'clock news on KHOU the HH flight that was scheduled for 93L ran into mechanical troubles. Can anyone confirm that?
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1678. Patrap
..earlier


18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Can anyone brief me on what happened on the 18z GFS? Thanks in advance.
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Could someone post the 8PM TWO. Really?
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Poll:
What will 93L peak at?
A.TD
B.TS
C.Hurricane

What will 97L peak at?
A.TD
B.TS
C.Hurricane

What will 98L peak at?
A.TD
B.TS
C.Hurricane


hey jr b cc
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
If recon were in 93L, we would already have TD8 or TS Harvey. Hopefully 93L doesn't strengthen quickly into a minimal hurricane because the people of Belize will have no warning time.
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1664. SQUAWK 7:40 PM EDT on August 18, 2011 +0
Quoting presslord:


I suspect we'd be surprised how many folks fall for them...

Nope. There are a lot of stupid people out there.






tru dat!
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If you look at the most recent gfs, it has 98L moving off to the N pretty quick. That one came off Africa to large to move due west like 97L imo
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1614. weatherh98 11:26 PM GMT on August 18, 2011 +0
trash any of these things,
trolls,
dumb information,
and,
MODEL RUNS OVER 144 HOURS OUT THEY WILL BE WRONG

This fuels the blog.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1670. Patrap
..earlier

18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest97
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
80%, 20%, 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING
BETTER-DEFINED AND A SURFACE LOW COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 100 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE GRACIAS A DIOS NICARAGUA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AS
LONG AS THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. TROPICAL-STORM-CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...GUATEMALA
AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 MPH.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA
ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
WAVE IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN


thats rediculous they must just want a recon the i like the 30 already
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting charlottefl:
Wow, that's a change, look at the flow over the N US and Canada:



THAT explains todays west wind...
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Quoting hotrods:
Weakness still seems to be over Florida, is that correct?


Pretty much, for the moment anyways.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
80%, 20%, 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING
BETTER-DEFINED AND A SURFACE LOW COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 100 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE GRACIAS A DIOS NICARAGUA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AS
LONG AS THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. TROPICAL-STORM-CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...GUATEMALA
AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 MPH.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA
ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
WAVE IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN


Wow, that third one sounds like it could be a good bit of fun at this point.

Though the GFS ensemble run for the 20% system is also a bit spooky looking.
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3 colors again!
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
1664. SQUAWK
Quoting presslord:


I suspect we'd be surprised how many folks fall for them...


Nope. There are a lot of stupid people out there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Most important parts of the two from each section:

ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AS
LONG AS THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS OFFSHORE.

HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS.

THIS
WAVE IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
Poll:
What will 93L peak at?
A.TD
B.TS
C.Hurricane

What will 97L peak at?
A.TD
B.TS
C.Hurricane

What will 98L peak at?
A.TD
B.TS
C.Hurricane
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 2509
1661. P451
Quoting TomTaylor:
Mostly because global upper air soundings are done only at 0z and 12z. Upper air soundings are just about the most important thing that goes into those models...they provide the wind speed, wind direction, temperature, dew point, and pressure heights for the entire atmosphere.


That is what it was, thanks Tom. I knew it was significant.

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
1660. Levi32
Quoting snotly:
Is the drought in Somalia caused by La Nina?


That would be governed more directly by the Indian Ocean Dipole.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1659. wn1995
NHC already went 30% on 98L, impressive!
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98L wow 30% not bad
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Quoting nofailsafe:


The wheel in the sky keeps on turning?
Hopefully.
As the high moves NW, the water currently being dumped in the GOM will be dumped into centex, which needs it the most right now. I guess there's not a wx term for this vapor Ferris water wheel.
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1656. hotrods
Weakness still seems to be over Florida, is that correct?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yikes, well I struck out big time with the TWO lol. Thought it would be 100, 10, 10.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1654. snotly
Is the drought in Somalia caused by La Nina?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING
BETTER-DEFINED AND A SURFACE LOW COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 100 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE GRACIAS A DIOS NICARAGUA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AS
LONG AS THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. TROPICAL-STORM-CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...GUATEMALA
AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING
BETTER-DEFINED AND A SURFACE LOW COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 100 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE GRACIAS A DIOS NICARAGUA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AS
LONG AS THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. TROPICAL-STORM-CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...GUATEMALA
AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 MPH.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA
ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
WAVE IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
Member Since: July 31, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 891
Latest tropics video update
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Really zonal? Yeah.


Yeah you would think it would have been more like that a few weeks ago and less like that now. I guess that falls into the "things that make you go hmmm." category. But then again climatology hasn't been very useful lately.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nofailsafe:


The wheel in the sky keeps on turning?



I was just listening to that!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING
BETTER-DEFINED AND A SURFACE LOW COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 100 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE GRACIAS A DIOS NICARAGUA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AS
LONG AS THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. TROPICAL-STORM-CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...GUATEMALA
AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 MPH.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA
ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
WAVE IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
80%, 20%, 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING
BETTER-DEFINED AND A SURFACE LOW COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 100 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE GRACIAS A DIOS NICARAGUA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AS
LONG AS THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. TROPICAL-STORM-CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...GUATEMALA
AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 MPH.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA
ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
WAVE IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
Quoting redwagon:

After landfall 93 will be forced to surrender its moisture to the vapor wheel spinning around the TX high.
This is great: this wheel is the only thing providing rain right now to TX.


Yea thats great!!!! hope its beneficial
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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