Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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AT 646 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CONROE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...WOODLOCH...THE
WOODLANDS...CONROE...AND CHATEAU WOODS.

IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS AND HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE OR
NON-CONVERTIBLE AUTOMOBILE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.


This is how desperate we are for rain. One can barely see the storm cell on the radar.
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Chances of becoming a tropical storm within 48 hours (IMO):

93L: ~100%

97L: 30%

98L: 50%
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32832
T-numbers on the next analysis for 93L could even be at TS strength already...
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Quoting jrweatherman:


I think 93L will develop into TS before coming ashore. 98L will develop pretty quickly and become a major hurricane. Storms that form this quickly are just about guaranteed to curve out to sea. Because of the influence of 98L, I am not so confident that 97L will develop. 98L just might suck all of the heat and energy from 97L.


97L and 98L have a lot of space between them for them to both develop.
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1742. txjac
Sailingallover ...happy to see you one ...I've posted several messages asking if anyone had seen you as last time I saw you you were in some mangroves! Hope all is well with you
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Quoting vital1:
Hi everyone. I've been lurking for a couple of years and decided to sign up so I could ignore the trolls and ask questions from time to time. I love reading everything you contribute to this blog and have learned quite a bit from all of you. I'm in MS so I have an interest in weather from hurricanes to tornadoes to ice storms.


I live in Hattiesburg and have been lurking a while. I have posted a few times but forgot my login so had to get another, LOL. 97L is making me nervous. I have plenty of food but not enough water. I will have enough by next week if this thing keeps coming this way.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
yea Levi

didn't realize he was gonna be on the show too


Sitting here watching the show...got my pom-poms in hand. LOL.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting asgolfr999:


B
C
C


WE realy have to be true to ourselves, this is no more than an average rain storm.
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yea Levi

didn't realize he was gonna be on the show too
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
So between the 80%, the 30% and 20% areas, there is a 130% chance that Harvey will come from one of them! LOL


I think 93L will develop into TS before coming ashore. 98L will develop pretty quickly and become a major hurricane. Storms that form this quickly are just about guaranteed to curve out to sea. Because of the influence of 98L, I am not so confident that 97L will develop. 98L just might suck all of the heat and energy from 97L.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1063
1736. JLPR2
97L has been progressively humidifying its surroundings.

Slowly 97L should begin to organize, 98L seems to have a nice chance at becoming a named storm first.

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Hi There, 1703. vital1
Welcome to what a few understand and a lot more wish they did/could.
Well I just signed in and evening everybody, it seems we have a bit of a train of storms of interest, pulling across the Atlantic at the moment and probably for the foreseeable future! I cant help wondering where the buffers are for these ones?
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Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening

Obs near 93L indicate a surface circulation but not definitive as to whether it is closed. Buoy 42057 near 17 N and 81 W has a pressure of 1008.5 and falling with East winds.

Puerto Lempira near the NE coast of Honduras has a pressure of about 1009 mbs and N winds.

In any event the system looks fairly disorganized and the 850 mb vorticity is as poor as it's ever been in several days and nowhere near as impressive when it was near 70W.

The odds of this sytem becoming a TS look slim at the moment and even TD status could be in doubt if it brushes up against the coast of Honduras.

The real action may be out in the Atlantic near 55W in a couple of days.


Well, if it goes ashore Honduras in a few hours, then it won't be classified. If it hits Belize, then I don't see any reason why it couldn't become a TS.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
93L needs to pass well offshore, not just offshore. Too close to the coast and it will ingest dry air and that will be that for its chances at ramping up
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting gugi182:
1. 93L (80%) MOVING WEST 10-15MPH
2. 98L (30%) MOVING NORTHWEST 10-15MPH
3. 97L (20%) MOVING WEST 15MPH

Where do you see these 3 invest by 2am update?


93L 90% Possibly inland or very close

98L 40%

97L 30%
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1731. gugi182
97L is batting dry air once it reaches 55W it will explode in intensity probably as a depression or a moderate Tropical Storm.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
NHC is expecting 93L to pass north of Honduras.


Without much certainty...looks to be a close call, but I think it will pass just slightly north of the coast.
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Quoting CaneHunter031472:
Latest GFS run now point at LA / TX landfall proving what many of us have being saying here since yesterday. Too early to tell and everyone from the East Coast to Texas Mexico border need to be in alert but not alarmed.

It may not even develop. These 10 day models are HIGHLY unreliable.
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The Barometer Bob Show this week August 18, 2011. We will hear from Joe Bastardi from WeatherBell.Com, and the up coming hurricane frenzy that the models are indicating.
Rob from RainmanWeather.Com will have another giveaway. Also Weather Undergrounds very own Levi..... Whats happening in the Tropics, and more. .
We will be talking Tropics and our Weather 101 segment!

The Barometer Bob Show aires every Thursday night at 8PM/ET.
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1726. gugi182
I believe 98L will be named first before we see 97L become a depression and if 93L can't form a close circulation because it running out of time due to proximity to land i see 98L as Harvey and 97L as Irene before reaching the Antilles. 98L will be a fish storm as it's moving northwest it reminds me of hurricane Julia (2010)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
NHC is expecting 93L to pass north of Honduras.

Model consensus show it grazing the coast.
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Looks to me like 93L will probably pass within just miles from the coast. Any deviation could have significant impact on the systems future.
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Poll:
What will 93L peak at?
A.TD
B.TS
C.Hurricane

What will 97L peak at?
A.TD
B.TS
C.Hurricane

What will 98L peak at?
A.TD
B.TS
C.Hurricane


B
C
C
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Quoting Ameister12:
Good evening.

30% already?


Looks really good.
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1721. angiest
MH09, you know how gfs has rerun Donna several times lately? This time it reran the 1900 storm.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1720. gugi182
This year we already have a Atlantic hurricane season "record" at least we achieve something this year. The first 7 named storms and no hurricanes.
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Good evening

Obs near 93L indicate a surface circulation but not definitive as to whether it is closed. Buoy 42057 near 17 N and 81 W has a pressure of 1008.5 and falling with East winds.

Puerto Lempira near the NE coast of Honduras has a pressure of about 1009 mbs and N winds.

In any event the system looks fairly disorganized and the 850 mb vorticity is as poor as it's ever been in several days and nowhere near as impressive when it was near 70W.

The odds of this sytem becoming a TS look slim at the moment and even TD status could be in doubt if it brushes up against the coast of Honduras.

The real action may be out in the Atlantic near 55W in a couple of days.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting atmoaggie:
Further west. So where will the pendulum stop and go back east some... (a common occurrence in track models)



You're right. It has already been west once and then east and now back west. Where it stops, well we shall see.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
If recon were in 93L, we would already have TD8 or TS Harvey. Hopefully 93L doesn't strengthen quickly into a minimal hurricane because the people of Belize will have no warning time.


The NHC, Univ of Co. and the other Major "CASTERS" have made there predictions for the 2011 hurricane season. Naming Harvey would help to keep the predictions in check. They dont want to revise there predictions in Sept. as they have done in the past several years.
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NHC is expecting 93L to pass north of Honduras.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32832
So between the 80%, the 30% and 20% areas, there is a 130% chance that Harvey will come from one of them! LOL
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Further west. So where will the pendulum stop and go back east some... (a common occurrence in track models)

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
1713. gugi182
Welcome

Quoting vital1:
Hi everyone. I've been lurking for a couple of years and decided to sign up so I could ignore the trolls and ask questions from time to time. I love reading everything you contribute to this blog and have learned quite a bit from all of you. I'm in MS so I have an interest in weather from hurricanes to tornadoes to ice storms.
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1712. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting sailingallover:

42 Bavaria..
www.sailingallover.com


Outstanding!!
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1710. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Ameister12:
Good evening.

30% already?
got a nice s shape to it may get named before anything else in the basin
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1709. wn1995
Quoting vital1:
Hi everyone. I've been lurking for a couple of years and decided to sign up so I could ignore the trolls and ask questions from time to time. I love reading everything you contribute to this blog and have learned quite a bit from all of you. I'm in MS so I have an interest in weather from hurricanes to tornadoes to ice storms.


Welcome! I'm new myself
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1708. gugi182
1. 93L (80%) MOVING WEST 10-15MPH
2. 98L (30%) MOVING NORTHWEST 10-15MPH
3. 97L (20%) MOVING WEST 15MPH

Where do you see these 3 invest by 2am update?
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Good evening. How you folks been dorin? I see we got lotsa colors today
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1706. Patrap
Quoting vital1:
Hi everyone. I've been lurking for a couple of years and decided to sign up so I could ignore the trolls and ask questions from time to time. I love reading everything you contribute to this blog and have learned quite a bit from all of you. I'm in MS so I have an interest in weather from hurricanes to tornadoes to ice storms.


Welcome to the fold.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129853
Tropical Cyclone wind scales
For those of us that want to see how strong a storm is in the models and other info. link to page at bottom



Beaufort Wind Scale
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Dvorak Current Intensity Chart
Fujita Tornado Scale

Weather Map Wind Symbols



Link
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latest 97l floater image
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1703. vital1
Hi everyone. I've been lurking for a couple of years and decided to sign up so I could ignore the trolls and ask questions from time to time. I love reading everything you contribute to this blog and have learned quite a bit from all of you. I'm in MS so I have an interest in weather from hurricanes to tornadoes to ice storms.
Member Since: June 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 35
It's too far out for anyone to panic or be convinced it will hit Tx or LA or anywhere else yet. But it's not too far out that you shouldn't have your supplies mainly in and ready and know what you'll do or where you'll go. It's time to be realistic, not dramatic.
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1701. Patrap
Quoting presslord:


Aw man! I'm so ecited! My bak just installed one in the lobby...And they don't charge a fee!! Bet I've got $1000 in the jar in my bedroom


Watch yer back lifting dat, Dude.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129853
Good evening.

30% already?
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Quoting Patrap:



I had a Coinstar machine do that once..

: )


Aw man! I'm so ecited! My bak just installed one in the lobby...And they don't charge a fee!! Bet I've got $1000 in the jar in my bedroom
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Quoting Mucinex:
NHC is going to wait for 93L to get in the EPac before naming since EPac is has fallen behind on named storms.;)


Oh, no, dear. Steering is going to strip 93 down like an East L.A. chop shop. All the EPAC is going to inherit is a tiny naked swirl, if that.
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Quoting Levi32:


That would be governed more directly by the Indian Ocean Dipole.
La Nina might have a slight effect.




Regardless, the IOD is positive now. Which should mean more rain for East Africa.





...Also mean less dust, and greater moisture for developing AEWs...
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Quoting Tazmanian:



sure it have DOOM for TX lol


It's had doom on the menu for the gulf coast the past couple days. And you know what they say about portion control nowadays. I certainly don't think I'd like the full plate. Personally, I'd take a half-order of doom medium-rare and a side of working traffic lights.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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