Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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3545. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.W.
08L/TD/XX
mark
16.63N/83.63W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54623
Quoting SavannahStorm:



This is not a scenario I'm too thrilled with...


Lets ask the GFS model what it means by a 979 MB storm near Savannah. What is it saying the conditions will be at that time? Tornadoes and Flooding would probably be a given. I live in South West Georgia and so I am not sitting well with it either.
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3543. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
POSS T.C.F.A.
INV/XX/97L
MARK
13.49N/48.18W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54623
3542. CJ5
Quoting tiggeriffic:


and i bet you store raw meat on the top shelf of your fridge, use a sponge to wash dishes, and towel dry your dishes as well...you can do as you please, however, safety is always first and in all good conscience how can you tell people it is ok to wash a milk jug and drink the water knowing they may not do it properly and could get sick? The handle, the rim and the cap harbor protien bacteria after reaching certain temperatures...I have taken all the food prep courses and safety courses due to my position at work...i deal with kids...we have rules...i follow those rules...my kids don't get sick...restraunts and such that dont follow rules have high tendancy for food poisoning...i rarely eat out as i have gotten sick from one of those establishments...and they had the A rating on the door...if someone does NOT have experience in the proper way to do something...dont chance it...period...


I would imagine most people can wash a milk jug and reuse properly. It is not rocket science, but then again, in todays society I may be wrong.
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Quoting Relix:
97L won't amount to much I am beginning to think. Very similar case to Emily.
Why do you think that?
Quoting bigeasystormcaster:
TROPICAL FORECAST UPDATE FOR THE ATLANTIC, CARRIBEAN & GOM 9:30AM 8-19-11:

TD 8 center of circulation about to make landfall near the Nicaraguan/Honduran border. This system should begin to diminish once further inland into the country of Honduras. Heavy rains could fall in this region should it's movement to the W/WSW significantly slow resulting in flooding and mudslides in this mountaninous region of Central America. This will be the final statement on this system.

97L continuing to move W/WNW and beginning to develop more thunderstorms around it's apparent low-level circulation. This sytem may increase to a TD or minimal TS before it begins to encounter unfavorable ULL winds in the Puerto Rico vicinity. Furthermore based upon it's projected path it will encounter the larger islands of the Carribean which will significantly disrupt it's organization and likely dissipate over the mountains of Hispanola. Will be no threat to the US coastline.

98L has a much better chance to become a much more powerful system perhaps a hurricane in 3-5 days from now as it moves WNW and then eventually NW into the open Atlantic as it recurves eventually to the NE. This sytem poses no threat to land.

Elsewhere no other threats for the next 7-10 days.
You're a wishful thinker buddy...
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3540. angiest
Quoting HCW:



Are you giving away prizes for the person that guesses correctly ?


Nope, just avoiding mentioning the name in public.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
3539. NASA101
Quoting Relix:
97L won't amount to much I am beginning to think. Very similar case to Emily.


Agree..., or even similar fate to 93L! 93L just like 97L had a naked swirl and never get going..

My guess is that models are developing this too fast west of 55W
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All this talk about filling milk jugs, bath tubs with water, buying powdered milk, and canned goods, and so on reminds me of when I was a kid and Donna stormed in. My dad and mom taped the window and filled the tub (plus 1 cup chlorine), bought those little cans of sterno heat (I still remember the awful smell) and they got out the real glass hurricane lamps (wish I still had one of those, if only because they were so cool and exciting).

And of course, before everyone tells me "Hey dude, taping the window does not work", well I know. In fact, my brothers and I spent days scraping the sticky tape of the picture window days later, along with cleaning up the yard and debris.

We all were made to sleep in the main part of the house, away from doors and windows ... good and exciting times for a 12 year old kid, but I'm sure my Dad and Mom were terrified for us. After it was over, we drove a few miles to the beach, or what was left of it.

Sorry for the stroll down memory lane, but if you lived in FLA at that time and date, you will know what I mean.

Oh, now I use heavy plywood and evacuate if warranted. My Dad was a great person, but maybe back then people didn't have the same respect for the weather as we do now. Or maybe he was like myself; liked the thrill of it all.
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3537. nigel20
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Quoting MahFL:


Ignore him, he's a troll.


What is a troll?
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Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
3533. Relix
97L won't amount to much I am beginning to think. Very similar case to Emily.
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3532. MahFL
Quoting utilaeastwind:



Looking at the current satellite data makes me very doubtful of this forecast. Any agreement?


Ignore him, he's a troll.
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Good morning, all! First looks like TD8 is about to become Harvey, based on what recon found--- 40mph winds and 1005mb pressure.

Second, 97L looks better today, with more thunderstorms around it. Models are not looking all that good for the Carib Islands and South Florida, and even perhaps the northern Gulf Coast, eventually. But that is still several days off and plenty of time to watch.

Third 98L is also looking very nice on satellite, dont think it will pose any threat to land.
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Quoting angiest:

I suspect I know who this is, or who this person is pretending to be. If you know of the legends around here, look at the handle and figure out who it seems to be...


Name: Steve Dankewich
Location: Utila, Bay Islands, Honduras


I no pretend.
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3529. HCW
Quoting angiest:

I suspect I know who this is, or who this person is pretending to be. If you know of the legends around here, look at the handle and figure out who it seems to be...



Are you giving away prizes for the person that guesses correctly ?
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Interesting..
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Quoting Abacosurf:


As I said before tigger....leave it to the professionals...

You can actually use a gallon Roundup container to store water if cleansed and neutralized properly.

But I understand your point.

Geez...can we beat this to death a bit more....

I have a 500 gallon cistern at my house in Fl. as well as a 12,000 gallon cistern in Abaco.

I am covered.

Don't understand why more people in the states don't have cisterns or at least a 55 gal container attached to a gutter......




Because water comes out of the tap without fail (or so most people think). Here we keep a fair supply of water on hand in the event that the planets align incorrectly and the tap ceases to function...
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3525. angiest
Quoting utilaeastwind:



Looking at the current satellite data makes me very doubtful of this forecast. Any agreement?

I suspect I know who this is, or who this person is pretending to be. If you know of the legends around here, look at the handle and figure out who it seems to be...
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
97L looks innocent enough at the moment...


Looks like RoatanGardener is going to catch quite a bit of TD 8.

off for mid-morning nap.
L8R.<
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



This is not a scenario I'm too thrilled with...
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Quoting aprinz1979:


I think he did get banned something about toes or something like that If I recall.


Toes? Whatever
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3520. angiest
Quoting stormpetrol:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 14:17Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Tropical Depression: Number 8 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 17
A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 13:57:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°04'N 83°27'W (16.0667N 83.45W)
B. Center Fix Location: 262 miles (421 km) to the SSW (211°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,459m (4,787ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the N (356°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 103° at 40kts (From the ESE at ~ 46.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the N (354°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,538m (5,046ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) in the north quadrant at 13:44:20Z

TS Harvey at 11am est 45-50mph.


I suspect, if they use this to name it, they will go with the 35kt.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
3519. NASA101
Quoting wolftribe2009:
ECMWF at 240 hours shows a Major Hurricane in the Central Gulf of Mexico

Link


That the 12Z run from yesterday - 24 hours old!
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Quoting bigeasystormcaster:
TROPICAL FORECAST UPDATE FOR THE ATLANTIC, CARRIBEAN & GOM 9:30AM 8-19-11:

TD 8 center of circulation about to make landfall near the Nicaraguan/Honduran border. This system should begin to diminish once further inland into the country of Honduras. Heavy rains could fall in this region should it's movement to the W/WSW significantly slow resulting in flooding and mudslides in this mountaninous region of Central America. This will be the final statement on this system.

97L continuing to move W/WNW and beginning to develop more thunderstorms around it's apparent low-level circulation. This sytem may increase to a TD or minimal TS before it begins to encounter unfavorable ULL winds in the Puerto Rico vicinity. Furthermore based upon it's projected path it will encounter the larger islands of the Carribean which will significantly disrupt it's organization and likely dissipate over the mountains of Hispanola. Will be no threat to the US coastline.

98L has a much better chance to become a much more powerful system perhaps a hurricane in 3-5 days from now as it moves WNW and then eventually NW into the open Atlantic as it recurves eventually to the NE. This sytem poses no threat to land.

Elsewhere no other threats for the next 7-10 days.



Looking at the current satellite data makes me very doubtful of this forecast. Any agreement?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3517. scott39
Quoting ncstorm:
hate it do this but our NWS..yes the National Weather Service is depicting doom in the GOM..P451, you might want to shoot them that map.

BY THURS A TROPICAL SYSTEM
SHOULD BE MOVING UP FROM THE WESTERN CARIB INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
WHILE A FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM THE NW INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THURS
NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES AND THE
BERMUDA HIGH PUSHING BACK WESTWARD TOWARD OUR AREA. OVERALL EXPECT
INCREASE OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT
THURS INTO FRI AND GREATER CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS.
Does this solidify the track of 97L more?
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3516. NASA101
Quoting cloudburst2011:



i agree totally


I doubt that it'll be a TD by 55W as it is very close to 50W right now there is ZERO convection where most of the vorticity is... my guess West of 60W
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ECMWF at 240 hours shows a Major Hurricane in the Central Gulf of Mexico

Link
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Quoting ncstorm:
hate it do this but our NWS..yes the National Weather Service is depicting doom in the GOM..P451, you might want to shoot them that map.

BY THURS A TROPICAL SYSTEM
SHOULD BE MOVING UP FROM THE WESTERN CARIB INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
WHILE A FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM THE NW INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THURS
NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES AND THE
BERMUDA HIGH PUSHING BACK WESTWARD TOWARD OUR AREA. OVERALL EXPECT
INCREASE OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT
THURS INTO FRI AND GREATER CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS.


Front coming down as a Storm moves north.....seen that before in Port Charlotte, Fl........NO THAT AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN ....besides i live in the protected city of Tampa now.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
3513. angiest
Quoting NASA101:


First of all, it's not named yet and will probably remain TD!


The VDM indicates it *may* be able to get a name.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
3512. nigel20

98L is really looking impressive.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 14:17Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Tropical Depression: Number 8 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 17
A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 13:57:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°04'N 83°27'W (16.0667N 83.45W)
B. Center Fix Location: 262 miles (421 km) to the SSW (211°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,459m (4,787ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the N (356°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 103° at 40kts (From the ESE at ~ 46.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the N (354°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,538m (5,046ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) in the north quadrant at 13:44:20Z

TS Harvey at 11am est 45-50mph.
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3510. srada
Quoting FLdewey:


Know this... if I see ants going for ma Cheetos we're gonna have issues.


I think the ants are evacuating so you should be straight
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3509. Grothar
What dry air? Looks like the convection is far removed from the last reported center.

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TROPICAL FORECAST UPDATE FOR THE ATLANTIC, CARRIBEAN & GOM 9:30AM 8-19-11:

TD 8 center of circulation about to make landfall near the Nicaraguan/Honduran border. This system should begin to diminish once further inland into the country of Honduras. Heavy rains could fall in this region should it's movement to the W/WSW significantly slow resulting in flooding and mudslides in this mountaninous region of Central America. This will be the final statement on this system.

97L continuing to move W/WNW and beginning to develop more thunderstorms around it's apparent low-level circulation. This sytem may increase to a TD or minimal TS before it begins to encounter unfavorable ULL winds in the Puerto Rico vicinity. Furthermore based upon it's projected path it will encounter the larger islands of the Carribean which will significantly disrupt it's organization and likely dissipate over the mountains of Hispanola. Will be no threat to the US coastline.

98L has a much better chance to become a much more powerful system perhaps a hurricane in 3-5 days from now as it moves WNW and then eventually NW into the open Atlantic as it recurves eventually to the NE. This sytem poses no threat to land.

Elsewhere no other threats for the next 7-10 days.
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3507. Gorty
TD 8 looks like it could become a TS today. Henry said HH found TS force winds. And it looks more like a TS now.
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3506. NASA101
Quoting utilaeastwind:
IMO

Harvey is sitting in the pocket ready for rapid intensification.

16N 83.3W


First of all, it's not named yet and will probably remain TD!
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3505. Grothar
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Quoting bythegraceofgod:


Thanks for the link. I used to have it but my computer crashed and I lost everything.

Also, I thought he didn't get banned. He just got fed up and left.


I think he did get banned something about toes or something like that If I recall.
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3503. ncstorm
hate it do this but our NWS..yes the National Weather Service is depicting doom in the GOM..P451, you might want to shoot them that map.

BY THURS A TROPICAL SYSTEM
SHOULD BE MOVING UP FROM THE WESTERN CARIB INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
WHILE A FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM THE NW INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THURS
NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES AND THE
BERMUDA HIGH PUSHING BACK WESTWARD TOWARD OUR AREA. OVERALL EXPECT
INCREASE OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT
THURS INTO FRI AND GREATER CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS.
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3502. Skyepony (Mod)
91E
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IMO

Harvey is sitting in the pocket ready for rapid intensification.

16N 83.3W
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3500. NASA101
Little strange BUT the 00Z Euro ensembles point to central Gulf towards Texas... but the operational run i towards Miami and then Carolinas... hmmmm!!
Seems like lots of uncertainty!

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Quoting wolftribe2009:
GFS has became the DOOM forecaster with "Irene".

It shows Irene rapidly intensifying near Cuba at 168 Hours

Link

Then at 204 hours it is a 982 MB storm near Key West Florida

Link

When the storm gets to 228 Hours, it is a 976 MB Storm slamming into Tampa Bay

Link

240 Hours out the storm is still at 979 MB storm near Savannah, Georgia

Link

252 Hours out and the storm is a 982 MB storm over the Carolinas.

Link

The storm then begins to intensify once it nears Maine at 274 Hours

Link

Now the model is probably going to change it's mind but a 982 MB storm from Georgia to Maine is very BAD! There will be major flooding along it's path; especially in the Maryland/Virginia area.



Good God, Magnum!!!!
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3497. angiest
Quoting Chicklit:
Am looking forward to a new blog by Dr. Masters to address the 97L, 98L issue. Not discouting #8; however, all eyes are on these big CV waves which the NHC and models are all developing!
p.s. now that DoomCon is rising where is DJ?~!


Check your wumail.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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