Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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Woah! That's awesome that Levi is on Barometer Bob.
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Quoting catastropheadjuster:
Levi is on Barometer Bob right know.
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Quoting extreme236:


Probably meant hurricane...he's be talking too much about TD's today :p


LOL...Exactly. My brain is shot...
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting EYEStoSEA:

Evening Eyes, I think you should post this animation of yours again for those who missed, or mist it before, this one looks like it could be the nasty of the month.
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Quoting Gorty:


It already looks like a TD. Should be interesting to see if it will be a TD at 11 PM.


TD should be hurricane. Lol. I'm getting all confused with these systems we have.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting MississippiWx:


I meant to say hurricane...it's corrected.


Okay.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32721
1790. Gorty
Quoting MississippiWx:


At this point, the low level circulation would have to strengthen way more than it is now to get close to a TD.


It already looks like a TD. Should be interesting to see if it will be a TD at 11 PM.
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
Quoting jrweatherman:


I just watched Levi's Tropical Tidbit from today. How in the world does he not even mention 98L? It is way more developed than 97L
can't expect him to always catch everything.

Besides, this morning it was not an invest and the NHC hadn't mentioned it...I don't think many people expected 98L to come up so quickly.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Didn't you just say you would be mad if the NHC didn't declare this at 8PM?

Now you think it will struggle to reach TD status?


Probably meant hurricane...he's be talking too much about TD's today :p
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In 2 days:
At the NHC:
What have we got everyone?
We have 93L who has 80mph winds and is slamming into Belize.
Lets not classify it just yet. What else
97L and 98L have dissipated.
Issue advisories on both!
LOL
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Didn't you just say you would be mad if the NHC didn't declare this at 8PM?

Now you think it will struggle to reach TD status?


I meant to say hurricane...it's corrected.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
If 98L takes a northerly track it could become a hurricane, but probably wouldn't exceed cat 1.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


At this point, the low level circulation would have strengthen way more than it is now to get close to a TD.


Didn't you just say you would be mad if the NHC didn't declare this at 8PM?

Now you think it will struggle to reach TD status?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32721


26C isotherm reaching quite far east in SSTs of Atlantic, which could set up conditions for a Vince-like storm late-season.

20C line reaching close to W. North American coast.
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Quoting extreme236:


97L and 98L have a lot of space between them for them to both develop.
Good evening. I see the Cape Verde season is starting to heat up. I have seen a few posts lately about the paths changing where the storms are less likely to go out to sea and more likely to head towards CONUS. Is this a short term or long term pattern? Either way, this is the weekend where we test the generator and check the battery (and wine) supply - we are in SE FLA. Just curious as to how it looks for our luck (nothing since Wilma 2005) holding up this year. Love reading posts from all the well informed folks out there - I am just an ovserver enjoying the enlightenment.
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Quoting jrweatherman:


I just watched Levi's Tropical Tidbit from today. How in the world does he not even mention 98L? It is way more developed than 97L



be come we did not get 98L in tell this PM he made the video in the AM
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Quoting jrweatherman:


I just watched Levi's Tropical Tidbit from today. How in the world does he not even mention 98L? It is way more developed than 97L


Because it hasn't been off the coast of Africa for 24 hours now, and 98L wasn't declared until this afternoon.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32721
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Call me crazy but I still see hurricanes out of every invest out there now. If 93L can gain enough latitude.


At this point, the low level circulation would have to strengthen way more than it is now to get close to a Hurricane.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Call me crazy but I still see hurricanes out of every invest out there now. If 93L can gain enough latitude.


crazy 97l and 98l yes93 l no
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1774. Gorty
Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol...At this point, I have no idea when the NHC will be satisfied enough to declare it a TD.


Yeah I know it. And do I see two bands on it?
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
Call me crazy but I still see hurricanes out of every invest out there now. If 93L can gain enough latitude.
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Quoting Gorty:
Invest in the SW Carrib is looking very good, really tightening up. Probably TD for 11 PM and then TS 2 AM. Looks like it is going west to wnw.


Lol...At this point, I have no idea when the NHC will be satisfied enough to declare it a TD.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
A : I'm leaving.

B : I cant take this anymore.

C : GoodBye.
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1770. Patrap

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129457
1769. Gorty
Invest in the SW Carrib is looking very good, really tightening up. Probably TD for 11 PM and then TS 2 AM. Looks like it is going west to wnw.
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
The fix file for 93L hasn't updated all day so I have no idea how high it's data T-numbers are.
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The future of 93L depends on, if it goes into, or north of Honduras. If it heads into Honduras, 93L wouldn't be able to become much at all, a weak tropical storm at most, but if it goes north, expect a moderate (50-60mph) tropical storm.
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Good evening everyone. Not liking the model tracks but at least I am prepared just in case.
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Direct link to Barometer Bob talk show:

Link
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1764. Grothar
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27125
98L does look impressive but, as always, we would like to see how it does after clearing west of the Cape Verde Islands to see if it can maintain after getting it's feet wet........At least it would have a better chance at not affecting land (possible fish per the initial model runs)the sooner it develops if that is the case.
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Levi talking on the Barometer Bob show right now
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
1761. wn1995
Quoting extreme236:


I know right? The fact that this system still has good convective organization near the dmin period, unlike the past several nights, suggests to me that this system is more than an average disturbance...


That may be, but I think they are just waiting on more data, anyway, I find it likely that they will name it TD 8 at the 11 pm adv
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Levi is on Barometer Bob right know.
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18/2345 UTC 15.7N 81.3W T2.0/2.0 93L -- Atlantic

EDIT: Beat
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1758. xcool



18z GFS Ensembles
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And I was wrong, but still solid TD

18/2345 UTC 15.7N 81.3W T2.0/2.0 93L -- Atlantic
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Ithink and am fairlyconfident that Harvey will become of 93l and i quiet honestly think it hasalready been a ts for a while now and although it will be weak it willbe the eighth tropical storm setting a record ibelieve. next I think that as long as 98l maintains its conection,there is no reason the nhc wont declare it by saturday and sunday. thrd 97l looks to be gaining convecttion and i also see no reason that this one wont form apart from dry air issues which can be overcome, looks like we are in for a active month
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Tell it to the NHC. LOL.


I know right? The fact that this system still has good convective organization near the dmin period, unlike the past several nights, suggests to me that this system is more than an average disturbance...
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Don't mean to waste blog space with images, but rainfall anomalies over Africa are showing signs of strong, healthy wave train. Notice the rain anomalies pushed further north, which implies the monsoon trough is stronger and further north than normal, which would imply stronger African Easterly waves. Also note the anomalously north rainfall which means that the Sahel region is receiving anomalous rainfall, which means less SAL coming out into the Atlantic.







Interestingly enough, however, SST anomalies over the Gulf of Guinea region are now around average, if not slightly above average.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Quoting sailingallover:
Hi Everyone!
So I sailed last week for Trinidad..had a great sail until Saturday 30nm north of Grenada when a tanker ship ran into me..didn't sink amazingly enough but a fair amount of damage.

So now I'll be in Grenada marine out of range of all the storms( hope) instead of Trinidad..

Geez! Glad u r ok and ur boat is not sunk.... hope the tanker owner pays for the repair work...

Pity u aren't holed up in Trini, though; Pottery has rum there.... lol
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Should we get healthy satellite estimates for 93L at 00z, that would probably be the go-ahead for classification.
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Two magnitude 3.1 earthquakes today: one south of San Francisco and another in the Los Angeles area.
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everyone come watch the barometer bob show Link


Levi32 will be speaking in first hour and Joe Bastardi will be calling in after 9. His take on the tropics should be interesting
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Haboob towards Phoenix.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32721
Quoting extreme236:
T-numbers on the next analysis for 93L could even be at TS strength already...


Tell it to the NHC. LOL.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
AT 646 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CONROE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...WOODLOCH...THE
WOODLANDS...CONROE...AND CHATEAU WOODS.

IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS AND HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE OR
NON-CONVERTIBLE AUTOMOBILE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.


This is how desperate we are for rain. One can barely see the storm cell on the radar.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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