Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TheNewGuy:


Great find.

normally they require a password to view these loops, although the individual images can be found without a password such that you can make your own loop.

Might just be temporarily allowing the public to use the loops since Bob is using it on the show
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Haboob near Phoenix live shot.

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Quoting atmoaggie:
93L is doing a much better job sustaining convection near it's core.


DMAX is firing up for the WATL nicely. Including the WV spinning around TX.
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1843. Gorty
Quoting CybrTeddy:

Emily did not have this strong and this powerful of model support, people really need to stop comparing this to Emily.. we're getting in the time of season that hurricanes have to happen. They're not going to be all duds. The SAL is causing storms to weaker, but that's causing systems to get closer to the USA just like in 2005. I rarely compare any season to 2005, but the dry air is very similar to that year.. actually its less dry air.


Impossible.

The only way to get that many named storms, in 2005 (and storms in general, one was unnamed) was to have little to no wind shear and dry air and warm waters for the entire season. That's why '05 was a rare season because it is rare you get conditions to be that perfect for the whole season. So 2011 has more dry air and wind shear than '05 did.
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32003
Quoting TomTaylor:
Woah look at this Link

RAMMB CIRA finally decided to let none CIRA personnel look at their African satellite imagery.

Loop


Great find.

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Still a "disturbance", meaning no closed circulation:

AL, 93, 2011081900, , BEST, 0, 154N, 815W, 30, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 140, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13526
1839. MTWX
I-29 corridor is getting hammered rigtt now!!

Link
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Woah look at this Link

RAMMB CIRA finally decided to let none CIRA personnel look at their African satellite imagery.

Loop 1

Loop 2

Loop 3
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357


The face of future DOOOOOOOOOOM!!
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1836. LBAR
I don't think I've seen this TV station's (MyFox out of Tampa, FL) satelite pictures shown here, but they are the best I've ever seen (no offense to anyone here, of course!). You can even see the bulge of the oceans from the tides. How'd they do that?
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Anyone know how to send a question in to the show?
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10244
Looks like a diesel truck honking wave stage right.

30% already

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Emily did not have this strong and this powerful of model support, people really need to stop comparing this to Emily.. we're getting in the time of season that hurricanes have to happen. They're not going to be all duds. The SAL is causing storms to weaker, but that's causing systems to get closer to the USA just like in 2005. I rarely compare any season to 2005, but the dry air is very similar to that year.. actually its less dry air.
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Quoting Gorty:
Idk why the NHC marked 98L so early for. Part of it is still over Africa, it can easily fall apart once it is fully over water. We all know most waves fall apart when they enter the water.


I asked the same question but I suppose they have some model support for development and can't ignore that...I would have waited but you also have to consider a possible threat to the Cape Verde Islands if it did "instant" hurricane off the coast.........
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Quoting Gorty:
Idk why the NHC marked 98L so early for. Part of it is still over Africa, it can easily fall apart once it is fully over water. We all know most waves fall apart when they enter the water.


Well, not all waves fall apart. This axis is over water now and holding steady.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Telling people: JB will be on at 9:00 PM.
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Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
people keep asking me what's happening with the 'storm' and i dont have an answer. i can only assure people here on roatan island that we will get rain. maybe lots of rain and some wind. wish i had more info to go on. anyone who would like to predict what 93L will drop on us im all ear. :) for those that dont know where roatan is exactly we are roughly 16 x 86 or 30 miles north off the coast of honduras.
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00z ICVN brings 97L to 87 knots. Pretty impressive if that were to pan out.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Shoutout to CybrTeddy from Barometer Bob! Lol. Go Teddy!
lol
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting blsealevel:
Tropical Cyclone wind scales
For those of us that want to see how strong a storm is in the models and other info. link to page at bottom



Beaufort Wind Scale
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Dvorak Current Intensity Chart
Fujita Tornado Scale

Weather Map Wind Symbols



Link


Awesome link blsealevel. Thanks for putting that together :)
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Shoutout to CybrTeddy from Barometer Bob! Lol. Go Teddy!
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Don't tell me 98L hasn't been designated! GRRRR
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Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
97L and 98L both have too be watch



97L is start too show that t-storm are starting too refire some
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. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA
ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
WAVE IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

Already 30% and designated 98L
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1818. Gorty
Idk why the NHC marked 98L so early for. Part of it is still over Africa, it can easily fall apart once it is fully over water. We all know most waves fall apart when they enter the water.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



where the update for 93L?


Not updated yet.
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Quoting PlazaRed:

Evening Eyes, I think you should post this animation of yours again for those who missed, or mist it before, this one looks like it could be the nasty of the month.


Hey there Plaza...good to see you :) This is the WV loop.....maybe this is the one you're talking about..lots of tropical moisture out there...I'm certainly a watcher....not much of a discussor...
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1815. ncstorm
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You did not see the 18Z GFS take Texas off the map.

LOL


LOL..I saw a BOOOMMBBBB!
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Quoting jrweatherman:


I agree that 97L will not develop. I do believe that 98L will develop. If it develops quickly which it looks like it is, it will curve out to sea.


I dont see why 97L won't develop. As it approaches the islands we should see some decent development begin to occur.
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1813. MTWX
Quoting vital1:
Hi everyone. I've been lurking for a couple of years and decided to sign up so I could ignore the trolls and ask questions from time to time. I love reading everything you contribute to this blog and have learned quite a bit from all of you. I'm in MS so I have an interest in weather from hurricanes to tornadoes to ice storms.

Where at in MS may I ask?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
97L:

AL, 97, 2011081900, , BEST, 0, 136N, 414W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 240, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,



where the update for 93L?
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Quoting weatherjr:
I think Invest 97 will not develop. It will pass without glory as Emily, 93 and others this year. About the T. wave (Invest 98) near the African coast is way too early to say.


I agree that 97L will not develop. I do believe that 98L will develop. If it develops quickly which it looks like it is, it will curve out to sea.
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Quoting Grothar:
Quite the consensus. Intensity models also bring it up to a category 2.
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Quoting Grothar:

Watch out PR if these are right, lot of model convergence.
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00z SHIPS/DSHPS and LGEM run brings 97L up to 86kt and 85kt respectively. Fairly impressive.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
97L:

AL, 97, 2011081900, , BEST, 0, 136N, 414W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 240, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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1806. Grothar
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Quoting ncstorm:
Someone please tell me that I just didnt see the 18Z GFS take Texas off the map?


You did not see the 18Z GFS take Texas off the map.

LOL
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32003
1804. xcool
WHXX01 KWBC 190032
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0032 UTC FRI AUG 19 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972011) 20110819 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110819 0000 110819 1200 110820 0000 110820 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.6N 41.4W 14.2N 44.6W 15.3N 48.3W 16.5N 52.4W
BAMD 13.6N 41.4W 14.4N 44.7W 15.4N 48.1W 16.4N 51.7W
BAMM 13.6N 41.4W 14.3N 44.7W 15.5N 48.6W 16.6N 52.7W
LBAR 13.6N 41.4W 14.2N 44.6W 15.2N 48.0W 16.1N 51.5W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110821 0000 110822 0000 110823 0000 110824 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.8N 56.7W 20.1N 64.8W 21.4N 72.2W 21.4N 78.3W
BAMD 17.4N 55.1W 19.3N 61.0W 20.9N 65.3W 22.7N 68.7W
BAMM 17.8N 56.8W 19.7N 64.5W 20.3N 71.4W 19.7N 76.4W
LBAR 17.1N 54.8W 18.6N 61.3W 21.0N 65.6W 20.2N 60.7W
SHIP 53KTS 74KTS 86KTS 88KTS
DSHP 53KTS 74KTS 86KTS 74KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.6N LONCUR = 41.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 13.5N LONM12 = 38.4W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 13.2N LONM24 = 35.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 120NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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93L is doing a much better job sustaining convection near it's core.

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1802. ncstorm
Someone please tell me that I just didnt see the 18Z GFS take Texas off the map?
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Quoting avthunder:
Good evening. I see the Cape Verde season is starting to heat up. I have seen a few posts lately about the paths changing where the storms are less likely to go out to sea and more likely to head towards CONUS. Is this a short term or long term pattern? Either way, this is the weekend where we test the generator and check the battery (and wine) supply - we are in SE FLA. Just curious as to how it looks for our luck (nothing since Wilma 2005) holding up this year. Love reading posts from all the well informed folks out there - I am just an ovserver enjoying the enlightenment.


My friends and parents are in SE Florida and I would say one storm at a time. I sounded the alarms last year in the pre-season (based upon the projected number of storms) and many of the Buds laughing at me now when nothing hit last year down there based on the many trofs that sent most of the CV storms out to sea.

I could not tell you what is going to happen to every storm this year. Best thing to do is to keep an eye on the long-term models and then pay real close attention if a storm gets into the Northern Antilles. Let NHC take over after that and prepare accordingly if you are threatened by any particular storm in their 3 day cone. But, by all means stock up and have your supplies and plans in place just in case......Sound like you are on the way with the wine restock.......
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1799. Gorty
is the center just west of 80N and by 16W?
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I just got to the Barometer Bob show.. Who is the guy in the blue shirt?
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
In 2 days:
At the NHC:
What have we got everyone?
We have 93L who has 80mph winds and is slamming into Belize.
Lets not classify it just yet. What else
97L and 98L have dissipated.
Issue advisories on both!
LOL


was i this confusing last year
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Woah! That's awesome that Levi is on Barometer Bob.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.