Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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1896. Thrawst
Quoting MississippiWx:


Agreed. When is Levi going to become a featured blogger?


Hopefully soon. With all the work he's put into those tidbits and the knowledge he possesses.
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1895. Gorty
Quoting weatherjr:
Good nights. Back Tomorrow. Tropics are rather QUIET.


You mean the 2006 season? I agree.
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
Quoting Gorty:
Do we have a new TD or not?


Not yet.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30292
1893. Gorty
Do we have a new TD or not?
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
Wow great job Levi caught the whole show with u and John u were great!
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bastardi about to be on barometer bob show. come listen Link
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Boy ! Levi did a terrific job..... Did WU proud....I'd say :)) Go Levi !!!!


Agreed. When is Levi going to become a featured blogger?
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10157
FWIW, 93L was designated an invest on Monday, August 8 at 1800Z, 10 days and 6 hours ago. It was designated at 10.0N/18.0W, and is now at 15.4N/81.5W, meaning it's (obviously) traveled 5.4 degrees north and 63.5 degrees west, never varying in pressure more than six millibars. The little blob deserves an award for persistence, if nothing else.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13306
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Boy ! Levi did a terrific job..... Did WU proud....I'd say :)) Go Levi !!!!
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That system coming of Africa at the moment according to the still shot has got to be over 1000 miles across, this isn't going to be dismissed as another nearly made it for sure, or no!
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Congrats to Levi and the crew......Long day and turning in.....See Yall tomorrow.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8310
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


My friends and parents are in SE Florida and I would say one storm at a time. I sounded the alarms last year in the pre-season (based upon the projected number of storms) and many of the Buds laughing at me now when nothing hit last year down there based on the many trofs that sent most of the CV storms out to sea.

I could not tell you what is going to happen to every storm this year. Best thing to do is to keep an eye on the long-term models and then pay real close attention if a storm gets into the Northern Antilles. Let NHC take over after that and prepare accordingly if you are threatened by any particular storm in their 3 day cone. But, by all means stock up and have your supplies and plans in place just in case......Sound like you are on the way with the wine restock.......
HA - yep, never hurts to have a little extra on hand. Always prepared. Next 2 months are the prime season.
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1877. Thrawst
Good job on the show, Levi!
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Quoting TheNewGuy:


That's not JB.


OK OK I got on late
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Go MississippiWx!!!


LOL...Thanks.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10157
Quoting CybrTeddy:

Emily did not have this strong and this powerful of model support, people really need to stop comparing this to Emily.. we're getting in the time of season that hurricanes have to happen. They're not going to be all duds. The SAL is causing storms to weaker, but that's causing systems to get closer to the USA just like in 2005. I rarely compare any season to 2005, but the dry air is very similar to that year.. actually its less dry air.


I disagree. Based off of 500mb and 700mb July 2005 - July 2011 relative humidity, the eastern tropical Atlantic was moister in 2005.





Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
1872. Patrap

00z Invest97y Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest97 Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamical still loading lines




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Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Way to go LEVI!! You sound just like you do on your update! Well done..

Joe Bastardi.... Nice weiner dog


That's not Joe Bastardi lol. He's not on yet.
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:
i think as soon as 93l gets a closed center it will be a t.s judging by the pressure of 1006 mb...


You can't judge strength off of pressure. Hurricane Alex had pressures of Category 3-4, but winds were only at Category 2 strength.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30292
i think as soon as 93l gets a closed center it will be a t.s judging by the pressure of 1006 mb...
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1868. IKE
192 hour 18Z GFS.....


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1866. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Way to go LEVI!! You sound just like you do on your update! Well done..

Joe Bastardi.... Nice weiner dog
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1864. IKE
10 day 12Z ECMWF....


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AL, 93, 2011081900, , BEST, 0, 154N, 815W, 30, 1006, DB,
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Is that a dog or a bunny?
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1861. Gorty
98L is in a favorable environment.
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
LOL
Levi just said "weathernerds" live on the Barometer Bob Show! LOL
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Pressure up on 98L.

AL, 98, 2011081900, , BEST, 0, 127N, 183W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 300, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30292
Quoting Gorty:


Then no one can explain why 05 was so active.


Exactly right.
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00z SHIPS run is less aggressive on 98L...only up to 56kts this time.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1854. Gorty
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Wrong.

2005 did indeed have more dry air than this season does, and so did last year. Wind shear across the basin is very low, a lot below normal.


Then no one can explain why 05 was so active.
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
Quoting Chicklit:
Looks like diesel truck honking wave exiting stage right Eyes to Sea.


great discription, Chicklit...lol....seriously, it's intimidating looking out there to these eyes
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1841. TheNewGuy 8:46 PM EDT on August 18, 2011

Looks like the apocalyptic global warming induced mega cane folks have been hinting at...........
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1851. bohonkweatherman
12:49 AM GMT on August 19, 2011
Quoting FrankZapper:
It may not even develop. These 10 day models are HIGHLY unreliable.
About as reliable as a 10 day forecast. No one knows where 97L will go right now until it develops and gets closer.
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
1850. Tazmanian
12:49 AM GMT on August 19, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:
Still a "disturbance", meaning no closed circulation:

AL, 93, 2011081900, , BEST, 0, 154N, 815W, 30, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,




not really i have seen many storm in the E PAC that says DB got upgrade too a TD or TS even overe here i seen storms get upgrade even if it say DB i think the nhc is this waiting for the recon too get in there
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1849. stormwatcherCI
12:49 AM GMT on August 19, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:
Still a "disturbance", meaning no closed circulation:

AL, 93, 2011081900, , BEST, 0, 154N, 815W, 30, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Pressure dropping but imo it still looks disorganized. Lots of lightning here.
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1848. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:48 AM GMT on August 19, 2011
Quoting Gorty:


Impossible.

The only way to get sooo many named storms (and storms in general, one was unnamed) was to have little to no wind shear and dry air and warm waters for the entire season. That's why '05 was a rare season because it is rare you get conditions to be that perfect for the whole season. So 2011 has more dry air and wind shear than '05 did.


Wrong.

2005 did indeed have more dry air than this season does, and so did last year. Wind shear across the basin is very low, a lot below normal.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30292
1847. atmoaggie
12:48 AM GMT on August 19, 2011
Quoting LBAR:
I don't think I've seen this TV station's (MyFox out of Tampa, FL) satelite pictures shown here, but they are the best I've ever seen (no offense to anyone here, of course!). You can even see the bulge of the oceans from the tides. How'd they do that?
Sorry, cannot tell you. ;-)

But the OMNI source page here: https://www.baronservices.com/broadcast/display/o mni
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1846. TomTaylor
12:48 AM GMT on August 19, 2011
Quoting TheNewGuy:


Great find.

normally they require a password to view these loops, although the individual images can be found without a password such that you can make your own loop.

Might just be temporarily allowing the public to use the loops since Bob is using it on the show
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.