Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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1946. Gorty
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
StormW about to talk on the Barometer Bob Show.

Link???
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
Oh, thanks for clarifying that for me! I thought that came out of a forecast office. I am never surprised what comes out of the mouths of tv mets. I hear all kinds of crap from the Tampa tv mets!

Quoting atmoaggie:
Well, just recognize that it is a TV met, some of which are promoted sports-casters.
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Quoting kmanislander:
If this is correct then 93L has a very serious problem with its vertical structure. The 700 and 500 mb vorticity is similarly skewed to the same position as the 850 and well removed from where the surface low would appear to be.



The 850 MB. Vorticity map has been screwy over the past few days, I wouldn't put much stock into it.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
1943. Patrap
Quoting atmoaggie:
Well, just recognize that it is a TV met, some of which are promoted sports-casters.


I bet his Hair was Perfect @ the 6 pm broadcast though.

: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
StormW about to talk on the Barometer Bob Show.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
1941. Patrap
Quoting atmoaggie:



Nasty stuff..that Happened once before in the 80's as well if my mem is working
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
If this is correct then 93L has a very serious problem with its vertical structure. The 700 and 500 mb vorticity is similarly skewed to the same position as the 850 and well removed from where the surface low would appear to be.

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I couldn't help myself.....just typed it out....lol

Quoting Thrawst:


I was thinking this in my head before I even saw this post. LOL.
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Quoting Goldenblack:
It just seems so anti-responsible for a forecast office to say something like that headed into this time in the season.

Well, just recognize that it is a TV met, some of which are promoted sports-casters.
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1937. ncstorm
What happened to Dr. Master's show?
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Quoting Patrap:
http://www.wafb.com/story/15291057/deq-responsibl e-party-comes-forward-in-fish-kill
...
The material causing the low dissolved oxygen was paper mill effluent with excessive "black liquor" as a result of an equipment malfunction. Black liquor contains lignin separated from wood pulp. Wood pulp is used to make paper. It is produced by cooking wood chips and adding sodium hydroxide, which has a high pH. The process breaks down lignin and makes the liquor easily digested by bacteria in the water. The digestion robs the water of oxygen and suffocates fish.

While there are no indications that persistent chemicals are involved in the fish kill, DEQ is waiting on sample results to confirm that the cause of the fish kill was low dissolved oxygen alone. Initial sample results are scheduled to be back from the lab on Friday, with additional results coming later.
...

Thanks, that's what I hadn't yet seen.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
I think we are entering a ~3 week period of staple-eye-lids-open:

/em>


I believe you are correct.
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Hey PR,

Seems like here in the FL that people on the beaches actually GO INTO the water when they see a storm. I just usually shake my head and go find an adult beverage.

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
"If you hear thunder, GET THE HELL OUT OF THE WATER!"
LOL Just heard that on the BB show.
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1933. Drakoen
Hopefully we get a good ASCAT pass, tonight a tropical depression. May be what the NHC is waiting on since the recon had mechanical issues.
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Quoting coffeecrusader:
I guess the forecasters in Beaumont TX have not seen the latest runs of the GFS and European models. Texas bound in these runs.


yeah, not saying I believe that will pan out, but you never know.....who knows maybe in a few days they will change their tone.

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1931. Thrawst
Quoting Goldenblack:
And so are you, you, you....POOF



I was thinking this in my head before I even saw this post. LOL.
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1930. Gorty
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Looked to me that 93L is on a WNW track,after watching that RAMDIS Loop.


Looks like it to me too.
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
1929. angiest
Quoting coffeecrusader:
Looks like the GFS has shifted way west and is headed for Texas in its latest run. I don't wish a hurricane on anyone but if anyone could use 15 inches of rain its Texas.


That scenario was likely at least a cat 4, and ridiculously large. At the time of landfall it would probably be affecting the weather in Dallas.
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"If you hear thunder, GET THE HELL OUT OF THE WATER!"
LOL Just heard that on the BB show.
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Quoting Drakoen:


He already is
nope don't think so
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
It just seems so anti-responsible for a forecast office to say something like that headed into this time in the season.

Quoting atmoaggie:
Patrick Vaughn. Apparently, that guy is nuts or "mailed it in".
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Looked to me that 93L is on a WNW track,after watching that RAMDIS Loop.
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:


great discription, Chicklit...lol....seriously, it's intimidating looking out there to these eyes

How many times has a wave with the structure and size of 98L emerged off Cape Verde? Looks like it's drawing on those cooler bay waters as discussed might aid cyclogenesis earlier in the season.
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Quoting Goldenblack:
Wow, that is one brave long term forecaster(s). I would not be so bold...

Patrick Vaughn. Apparently, that guy is nuts or "mailed it in".
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Station 42057 - Western Caribbean

‎Today, ‎August ‎18, ‎2011, ‏‎1 minute ago
August 18, 2011 8:50 pm EDT
Location: 17.003N 81.501W
Wind Direction: E (80°)
Wind Speed: 21.4 knots
Wind Gust: 25.3 knots
Significant Wave Height: 5.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Average Period: 4.8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (106°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.78 in (1008.6 mb)
Pressure Tendency: +0.02 in (+0.6 mb)
Air Temperature: 82.6°F (28.1°C)
Dew Point: 76.5°F (24.7°C)
Water Temperature: 84.9°F (29.4°C)


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Quoting Twinkster:
bastardi about to be on barometer bob show. come listen Link


Hmmm, I wonder what he will say? The same thing he's been saying for the past 5 years. The SE US Coast, especially FL is going to get slammed by a major hurricane. I guess eventually he will be right.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 930
I guess the forecasters in Beaumont TX have not seen the latest runs of the GFS and European models. Texas bound in these runs.
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1919. Patrap
DEQ: Responsible party comes forward in fish kill


Information provided by the Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality

BATON ROUGE, LA - On Wednesday, Aug. 17, DEQ received a letter from the Temple-Inland Bogalusa Paper Mill that stated that the facility had an exceedance of its maximum permit limit for biological oxygen demand, which the company believes may have led to the depleted oxygen level that killed thousands of fish in the Pearl River in Washington and St. Tammany Parishes.

This statement is consistent with what the department has witnessed, and what early water monitoring data, beginning on Sat., Aug. 13, indicated. The department received word of a large fish kill on the river near Bogalusa from a media source on Saturday morning, several hours before the company reported a fish kill in the Pearl River.

"We received word of a fish kill event Saturday morning and dispatched water quality experts to the Pearl River," said Secretary Peggy Hatch. "This quick response helped us to identify the probable source of a slug of poorly treated wastewater that can produce low dissolved oxygen conditions in the river. The low DO, coupled with the historic low flow in the river led to an extensive fish kill. That's the bad news. The good news is the dissolved oxygen levels in the river show signs that it is already beginning to recover."

The material causing the low dissolved oxygen was paper mill effluent with excessive "black liquor" as a result of an equipment malfunction. Black liquor contains lignin separated from wood pulp. Wood pulp is used to make paper. It is produced by cooking wood chips and adding sodium hydroxide, which has a high pH. The process breaks down lignin and makes the liquor easily digested by bacteria in the water. The digestion robs the water of oxygen and suffocates fish.

While there are no indications that persistent chemicals are involved in the fish kill, DEQ is waiting on sample results to confirm that the cause of the fish kill was low dissolved oxygen alone. Initial sample results are scheduled to be back from the lab on Friday, with additional results coming later. When DEQ's investigation is complete, the agency will take appropriate enforcement action. Louisiana law also requires restitution to the state for loss of the fish as a public resource.

Evidence of the fish kill extends south to the US Highway 90 bridge over the West Pearl River. No dead fish have been confirmed south of this point, but normal stream flow is expected to carry some carcasses downstream. However, thousands of dead fish remain in the river system. Officials at Temple-Inland have hired workers to clean up dead fish and have established a reporting line for areas in need at 985-516-9192. The DEQ asks that citizens witnessing the fish kill use common sense and avoid handling or eating fish that are already dead or acting abnormally.

The Temple-Inland letter and a timeline of how the events took place are available at www.deq.louisiana.gov.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Quoting Drakoen:


He already is


He's not a featured blogger from what I can see on the main blog page...
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10209
And so are you, you, you....POOF

Quoting weatherjr:
Good NIGHTS TROPICS ARE QUIET, QUIET, QUIET....
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I think we are entering a ~3 week period of staple-eye-lids-open:

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Brought this point up on the BB show and I think I should bring it up here.

Last year, as of August 18th, 2010..

The 2010 was at 3-1-0.. 1 hurricane, no majors.

That season cranked out 12 hurricanes.

Be vigilant, the fact that so many storms are developing in these conditions should tell people straight out that systems are going to be cranking out very soon.
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Wow, that is one brave long term forecaster(s). I would not be so bold...

Quoting TexasHurricane:

From our locals in Beaumont,TX

The tropical wave, southwest of Jamaica, in the Caribbean continues to organize and a tropical depression could form shortly. Regardless, with upper-level high pressure over Texas, this system is meaningless to Southeast Texas. The system will continue its westward course into Honduras, Belize and finally to the Yucatan.

Another system in the Central Atlantic is showing also showing signs of organization. The reliable European Model takes this system just north of Puerto Rico, over the Bahamas next Thursday where is strengthens into a tropical storm. By next weekend, the storm may be a hurricane and Northeast Florida to South Carolina may see a landfall. The system will be kept out of the Gulf of Mexico as a trough of low pressure in the upper-levels will recurve the system.

The next 10 days will be storm free in the Gulf of Mexico.
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1912. hamla
they think its pulp and chems.will know more tommorow
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1911. Drakoen
93L looks like it is on the verge of becoming a Tropical Depression based on the satellite imagery and the surface observation. Using NOWCOAST, some readings to the south of tthe system out of the westerly direction. Looks like it will skirt the coastline.
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:

why does the gfs have 93l turning southeast?

More importantly, why does the GFDL have 93 putting in at Brownsville? I guess this just happened. Wow, changes a lot of things.
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Looks like the GFS has shifted way west and is headed for Texas in its latest run. I don't wish a hurricane on anyone but if anyone could use 15 inches of rain its Texas.
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1908. Gorty
Quoting Thrawst:


Nah nah nah ... the 1914 hurricane season. :P
Link


LOL. So far no season beat that :D
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
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From our locals in Beaumont,TX

The tropical wave, southwest of Jamaica, in the Caribbean continues to organize and a tropical depression could form shortly. Regardless, with upper-level high pressure over Texas, this system is meaningless to Southeast Texas. The system will continue its westward course into Honduras, Belize and finally to the Yucatan.

Another system in the Central Atlantic is showing also showing signs of organization. The reliable European Model takes this system just north of Puerto Rico, over the Bahamas next Thursday where is strengthens into a tropical storm. By next weekend, the storm may be a hurricane and Northeast Florida to South Carolina may see a landfall. The system will be kept out of the Gulf of Mexico as a trough of low pressure in the upper-levels will recurve the system.

The next 10 days will be storm free in the Gulf of Mexico.
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Quoting hamla:
black stuff in pearl river killing fish wildlife,bad discharge from papermill in bogalusa la.
gonna take boat and help with cleanup 6 am fri
another freakin mess to our eco system
Yeah, that's pretty disturbing.

Any report about what it actually is? I know a number of toxic chemicals are used in papermills.
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1903. Thrawst
Quoting Gorty:


You mean the 2006 season? I agree.


Nah nah nah ... the 1914 hurricane season. :P
Link
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1902. Drakoen
Quoting MississippiWx:


Agreed. When is Levi going to become a featured blogger?


He already is
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
1841. TheNewGuy 8:46 PM EDT on August 18, 2011

Looks like the apocalyptic global warming induced mega cane folks have been hinting at...........


LOL. The cure for global warming is stop paying grant money to study it. It is a self generating theory. The more money they get to study it the more evidence they find.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
LOL
Levi just said "weathernerds" live on the Barometer Bob Show! LOL
Weathernerds, never met one of them. LOL
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1899. hamla
black stuff in pearl river killing fish wildlife,bad discharge from papermill in bogalusa la.
gonna take boat and help with cleanup 6 am fri
another freakin mess to our eco system
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why does the gfs have 93l turning southeast?
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1897. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting IKE:
192 hour 18Z GFS.....


into the rocket fuel it goes
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1896. Thrawst
Quoting MississippiWx:


Agreed. When is Levi going to become a featured blogger?


Hopefully soon. With all the work he's put into those tidbits and the knowledge he possesses.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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