Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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1996. Drakoen
Quoting Skyepony:


I agree & I don't often question those charts but even looking at 500mb vort~ the mid level.. that's nowhere near where we see it on Satellite..


Those vorticity maps are not perfect. They are done using a finite difference scheme. We need to remember that numerical solutions produce more errors than the analytic ones. In addition, part of the analysis involves using data from numerical model where data is sparse. They take output primarily from the NOGAPS and this data may be from model forecasted projections.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
That perfect hair infliction is apparently a Texas thing...

Hopefully not communicable across state lines.


LOL. I'm glad y'all like his hair. This has got to be the worst place for hair on the planet! Humidity reigns supreme!
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Don't quote me on this, but I think that is what they are supposed to do based on when the new full suite of forecast models are available after the 0Z and 12Z runs.....but I am just an enthusiast/weather hobby person, so there might be a better explanation.

However, I do live for those detailed forecast discussions!

blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting angiest:


Houston does two long discussions per day, and two or more brief updates in between. At 6:40, as the GFS was producing this solution, they were putting out the evening update. Sometime overnight they *may* mention that the run brought a storm here and that it as least needs to be watched. The graveyard shift seems to be a tad more interesting to read.
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Rita reminds me soooooo much of katrina
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1992. angiest
Quoting atmoaggie:
GFS ensemble members updated:



Operational shifted towards where most of the ensembles are. I think the ensembles have shown further west most of the day.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting vital1:
Thank you for posting that. I live on the Reservoir in MS and we upped our water output to send more down that way to help with the fish kill.
Well, that's good of you. Thanks!
(From St Tammany)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Rita and Humberto went through TX. Humberto made landfall in TX.



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GFS ensemble members updated:

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
1988. amd
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
My thoughts exactly ...

It appears to be sheared from the north, but by what, I wonder?


I was checking the 850 mb imagery on CIMSS by going back for the previous 24 hours, and I think the problem is actually from the south. I think the lower-level circulation of 93L was too close to the monsoonal trough off South America, and it looked like they actually merged today in the lower levels. This completely distorted the lower-levels of 93L, and caused the low-level circulation to elongate in a north-south direction for much of the day.

On recent ramsdis imagery, it looks like 93L is trying to close a small LLC just north of 15 N, but I think it is happening too close to Honduras to matter too much. IMO.
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LOL....it must be spreading too. All the tv mets back in St. Louis, before my Fl move had the perfect hair!

Quoting atmoaggie:
That perfect hair infliction is apparently a Texas thing...
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1986. angiest
Quoting Goldenblack:
You know, sometimes I wish they would talk on the forecast discussion about the potential, but I am happy when they have something sound and more definite to describe....so I just sigh...and wait.



Houston does two long discussions per day, and two or more brief updates in between. At 6:40, as the GFS was producing this solution, they were putting out the evening update. Sometime overnight they *may* mention that the run brought a storm here and that it as least needs to be watched. The graveyard shift seems to be a tad more interesting to read.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1985. vital1
Quoting Patrap:
DEQ: Responsible party comes forward in fish kill


Information provided by the Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality

BATON ROUGE, LA - On Wednesday, Aug. 17, DEQ received a letter from the Temple-Inland Bogalusa Paper Mill that stated that the facility had an exceedance of its maximum permit limit for biological oxygen demand, which the company believes may have led to the depleted oxygen level that killed thousands of fish in the Pearl River in Washington and St. Tammany Parishes.



Thank you for posting that. I live on the Reservoir in MS and we upped our water output to send more down that way to help with the fish kill.
Member Since: June 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 35
You know, sometimes I wish they would talk on the forecast discussion about the potential, but I am happy when they have something sound and more definite to describe....so I just sigh...and wait.

Quoting angiest:


Our WFO (Houston) is silent. Beaumont is served by WFO Lake Charles, and they are so far silent as well, at least in the most recent discussion.
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Quoting weatherh98:
Isnt it true that stronger storms are controlled by low level steering while the weakers are steered by the upper level, if this is the case, ccouldnt the nhc just base the intensity maps offof the steering maps


other way around, weaker storms are controlled by the low levels

the stronger a storm gets the higher up in the atmosphere it reaches, therefore it is steered by the upper levels
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1982. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Goldenblack:
Wow. You poor Texans- no rain and an infamous tv met with perfect hair (quoting Pat).

That perfect hair infliction is apparently a Texas thing...

Hopefully not communicable across state lines.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting angiest:
Posted earlier today on NWS Houston's Facebook page:

"Twenty-eight years ago Hurricane Alicia made landfall along the Southeast Texas Coast. For a summary of Alicia, click on the link."

The Southeast Texas coast has not received a direct landfall from a category three hurricane or higher since.*

I don't think this part of Texas had a hurricane hit again until 1989 (Jerry). Depending on how you count them, the next hurricane landfall here was either Rita or Humberto. (if I am missing one, please let me know).

* Rita's eye crossed the coast just inside Louisiana. For all intents and purposes, you could consider that a cat 3 landfall in Southeast Texas.


Yep! There's a little sliver of Louisiana that sticks out just below Sabine Lake which is just below my county. That's where she came in. So basically she made TX landfall in Orange Co. Even though we aren't a coastal county. Lol.
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1979. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting kmanislander:


The problem is that the vort is well to the SW of the system's current position.


I agree & I don't often question those charts but even looking at 500mb vort~ the mid level.. that's nowhere near where we see it on Satellite..
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Isnt it true that stronger storms are controlled by low level steering while the weakers are steered by the upper level, if this is the case, ccouldnt the nhc just base the intensity maps offof the steering maps
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Quoting roatangardener:
people keep asking me what's happening with the 'storm' and i dont have an answer. i can only assure people here on roatan island that we will get rain. maybe lots of rain and some wind. wish i had more info to go on. anyone who would like to predict what 93L will drop on us im all ear. :) for those that dont know where roatan is exactly we are roughly 16 x 86 or 30 miles north off the coast of honduras.
Hey, roatangardener,

right now it looks like 93L is supposed to pass just over or slightly to the north of your location. There's been no renaming of the system, but NHC is saying to expect tropical storm conditions tomorrow and possibly into Saturday. I hope you get some good rain, but not too much flooding or destructive wind from this.

All the best!
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Joe is on right now
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Link

That is the link to the Barometer Bob Show where Joe Bastardi is currently speaking about the active Tropical Atlantic.
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1973. angiest
Quoting Goldenblack:
Oh, thanks for clarifying that for me! I thought that came out of a forecast office. I am never surprised what comes out of the mouths of tv mets. I hear all kinds of crap from the Tampa tv mets!



Our WFO (Houston) is silent. Beaumont is served by WFO Lake Charles, and they are so far silent as well, at least in the most recent discussion.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1972. BA
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Telling people: JB will be on at 9:00 PM.


you don't tell us where?
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Quoting Drakoen:
93L looks like it is on the verge of becoming a Tropical Depression based on the satellite imagery and the surface observation. Using NOWCOAST, some readings to the south of tthe system out of the westerly direction. Looks like it will skirt the coastline.
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Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
My thoughts exactly ...

It appears to be sheared from the north, but by what, I wonder?


North Easterly steering flow
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
Quoting kmanislander:


The problem is that the vort is well to the SW of the system's current position.
oh. Well that would most likely be an issue with the CIMSS product...it's not perfect.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Wow. You poor Texans- no rain and an infamous tv met with perfect hair (quoting Pat).

Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Oh boy. Looks like our infamous met has made it back onto the blog. Lol. I didn't start it this time. Spent all morning explaining my way out of that situation. :)
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1967. vital1
Quoting MTWX:

Where at in MS may I ask?


Brandon. Originally from Hattiesburg.
Member Since: June 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 35
1966. angiest
Posted earlier today on NWS Houston's Facebook page:

"Twenty-eight years ago Hurricane Alicia made landfall along the Southeast Texas Coast. For a summary of Alicia, click on the link."

The Southeast Texas coast has not received a direct landfall from a category three hurricane or higher since.*

I don't think this part of Texas had a hurricane hit again until 1989 (Jerry). Depending on how you count them, the next hurricane landfall here was either Rita or Humberto. (if I am missing one, please let me know).

* Rita's eye crossed the coast just inside Louisiana. For all intents and purposes, you could consider that a cat 3 landfall in Southeast Texas.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting kmanislander:
If this is correct then 93L has a very serious problem with its vertical structure. The 700 and 500 mb vorticity is similarly skewed to the same position as the 850 and well removed from where the surface low would appear to be.

My thoughts exactly ...

It appears to be sheared from the north, but by what, I wonder?
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Quoting TexasHurricane:

From our locals in Beaumont,TX

The tropical wave, southwest of Jamaica, in the Caribbean continues to organize and a tropical depression could form shortly. Regardless, with upper-level high pressure over Texas, this system is meaningless to Southeast Texas. The system will continue its westward course into Honduras, Belize and finally to the Yucatan.

Another system in the Central Atlantic is showing also showing signs of organization. The reliable European Model takes this system just north of Puerto Rico, over the Bahamas next Thursday where is strengthens into a tropical storm. By next weekend, the storm may be a hurricane and Northeast Florida to South Carolina may see a landfall. The system will be kept out of the Gulf of Mexico as a trough of low pressure in the upper-levels will recurve the system.

The next 10 days will be storm free in the Gulf of Mexico.


isn't that a bit pre-mature?
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1963. Skyepony (Mod)
NASA got a 2nd THEMIS satellite into the moon's orbit. The other 3 are going to stay on their earth orbit weather monitoring tasks.

Back to posting & updating my blog regularly..here's my random thoughts on storms from right to left..

98L just stepped off Africa, looks fairly organized but it's not fully over water yet.

97L is mid Atlantic. Models want to make it a monster...Look out Hispaniola & neighboring countries.

Latest TRMM pass of 93L (second pass today). It may just hit Honduras like some models say but it's a little storm so I say that with a good deal of uncertainty. Recon went out there today, began to decent, turned around & left. I'm assuming there was some technical difficulties.

Half expecting a invest off the east coast in the next few days. Rolling up along the Carolinas, blowing up on the gulf stream. One for Newfoundland to watch.

Fernanda is in the Central Pacific now. Outside chance it could make it to Hawaii.

95W looks impressive in structure & size. It's way out in the middle of the Pacific.
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StormW was supposed to be on the show but it sounds like he is having problems with SKYPE
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Quoting TomTaylor:
hmm, not sure what you aren't liking about those CIMSS vorticity charts, but it looks to me like the low level vorticity has strengthened and consolidated, which is far better than it was earlier (-3hrs ago) when the vort signature was weaker and elongated. The mid level circulation isn't perfectly stacked and it is slightly weaker on the analysis maps, but the dramatic improvement in the low level vorticity is what stands out imo.


The problem is that the vort is well to the SW of the system's current position.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Nope, now its Joe.


First thing he says is FL or the SE Coast is going to get hit. Same story for the past 5 years.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 984
Quoting Goldenblack:
It just seems so anti-responsible for a forecast office to say something like that headed into this time in the season.



Oh boy. Looks like our infamous met has made it back onto the blog. Lol. I didn't start it this time. Spent all morning explaining my way out of that situation. :)
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Quoting Ryuujin:
So what did Levi and MississippiWX say on Bastardi's show? I missed it because I just logged back on.


Lol...As far as I know, I wasn't speaking. I just had some questions answered.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting kmanislander:
If this is correct then 93L has a very serious problem with its vertical structure. The 700 and 500 mb vorticity is similarly skewed to the same position as the 850 and well removed from where the surface low would appear to be.

hmm, not sure what you aren't liking about those CIMSS vorticity charts, but it looks to me like the low level vorticity has strengthened and consolidated, which is far better than it was earlier (-3hrs ago) when the vort signature was weaker and elongated. The mid level circulation isn't perfectly stacked and it is slightly weaker on the analysis maps, but the dramatic improvement in the low level vorticity is what stands out imo.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
looking at the steering currents for 97L 700-850mb or the500-850mb, it loos like that the system will continue west.
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Nope, now its Joe.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32257
Quoting kmanislander:
If this is correct then 93L has a very serious problem with its vertical structure. The 700 and 500 mb vorticity is similarly skewed to the same position as the 850 and well removed from where the surface low would appear to be.



Its been wrong a lot the last few days
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1951. Ryuujin
So what did Levi and MississippiWX say on Bastardi's show? I missed it because I just logged back on.
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1949. hamla
tks patrap
i got hired 2 day
but its in the rigolets/lake bornge so who knows,also they opened up ross barnnet today 2 flush it out to gom
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1948. Grothar
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STILL ROLLING after that that comment Pat...lol

Quoting Patrap:


I bet his Hair was Perfect @ the 6 pm broadcast though.

: )
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1946. Gorty
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
StormW about to talk on the Barometer Bob Show.

Link???
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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