Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting FLdewey:
Worse than any tropical system this year in MO right now...

AT 826 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 100 MPH...AND PING
PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF
GALLATIN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

Ship it!


Building partially on road
Radio Reference live audio
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Tropical Depression #8.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
TD #8!!!!!!!!!!!



We have what now?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
TD #8!!!!!!!!!!!


Navy????
Quoting tornadolarkin:

Great point. This thing is almost on land too, which is one reason I think they downgrade it, but they wont do that until its on land.


There goes our thoughts... Right out the window
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6469
Quoting TexasHurricane:

From our locals in Beaumont,TX

The tropical wave, southwest of Jamaica, in the Caribbean continues to organize and a tropical depression could form shortly. Regardless, with upper-level high pressure over Texas, this system is meaningless to Southeast Texas. The system will continue its westward course into Honduras, Belize and finally to the Yucatan.

Another system in the Central Atlantic is showing also showing signs of organization. The reliable European Model takes this system just north of Puerto Rico, over the Bahamas next Thursday where is strengthens into a tropical storm. By next weekend, the storm may be a hurricane and Northeast Florida to South Carolina may see a landfall. The system will be kept out of the Gulf of Mexico as a trough of low pressure in the upper-levels will recurve the system.

The next 10 days will be storm free in the Gulf of Mexico.
The whole tone of this is annoyed. lol.... as in "everybody else is getting a storm, but will TX??? Oh, no! 'The next 10 days will be storm free in the Gulf of Mexico.'".... lol

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Quoting angiest:


Nice. A cyclonic loop inside of an anticyclonic loop.
Isn't that nutz?

Bloggers would try figure out how to inflict pain to each other if we had one today, I think.
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we have renumber

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al932011_al082011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108190146
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have a new laptop so I donot have the Link for Barometer Bob Show could someone send it to me or even the web address.... TIA

Taco :o)
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This one drove us nuts

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
TD #8!!!!!!!!!!!


invest_RENUMBER_al932011_al082011.ren

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al932011_al082011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108190146
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We Have 08L!
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5672
Quoting lucreto:
Here are my predictions 3 named storms the remainder of the season with 1 hurricane, that would give 10/1/0 I believe


YOUR JOKING RIGHT!!! Ill go with 18/6/4
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6469
Quoting weatherh98:


Mhm wouldnt be surprised if the nhc pulls back to 60 % but they wont do it to much cuz im sure they want a recon on it they tstorms look ragid and the vorticity is off... but on the other hand bouy reports from a few hrs ago suggest ts

Great point. This thing is almost on land too, which is one reason I think they downgrade it, but they wont do that until its on land.
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2033. angiest
Quoting atmoaggie:
My favorite whack-track:


Nice. A cyclonic loop inside of an anticyclonic loop.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TD #8!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31883
2031. hahaguy
Here's a good motto for all the models , You think you know but you just don't know.
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2030. IKE
12Z CMC @ 144 hours....


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Quoting AllyBama:
good grief! I just wish that these systems rolling across the atl bore luggage tags, stating their destination!...sure would save some of us from endless hours of anxiety!..lol

I agree Ally :o)

Good to see you on tonight How have you been?

Taco :o)
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Quoting angiest:
Something else scary about the 18Z run, about three days after landfall it shows ridging building back into areas that will be without power for quite some time (based on the strength of the storm depicted).





It is normally still in the 90s for afternoon highs in early September here.
Good point.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
My favorite whack-track:


I wish!!!!
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6469
2025. vital1
Quoting atmoaggie:
Well, that's good of you. Thanks!
(From St Tammany)


Anytime :). We had some severe storms this afternoon that actually messed up the control tower at the Rez (Ross Barnett) and took out some transformers.

I briefly lived in Slidell in the late 80's. Boy, I feel old saying that!
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2024. Patrap
Watching Rita and holding breath we were,,

..like a minnie Main Blog in our room,

,,was that a N jog?

west its iz.

Its stalled?

that cant be right.

what?

Fresca

Phew.......
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Quoting tornadolarkin:

Yeah really, it just doesnt look good right now. At least not as good as earlier.


Mhm wouldnt be surprised if the nhc pulls back to 60 % but they wont do it to much cuz im sure they want a recon on it they tstorms look ragid and the vorticity is off... but on the other hand bouy reports from a few hrs ago suggest ts
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6469
Quoting dfwstormwatch:

what would bloggers do with a storm like this?


God! I hope that never happens again!
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:

what would bloggers do with a storm like this?
My favorite whack-track:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2020. angiest
Something else scary about the 18Z run, about three days after landfall it shows ridging building back into areas that will be without power for quite some time (based on the strength of the storm depicted).





It is normally still in the 90s for afternoon highs in early September here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
And Rita "made landfall" on LA, but just barely:



She was a monster alright. Sigh. She knocked the radar out for a while. But they braved the storm and fixed it. Memories.
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what would bloggers do with a storm like this?
Member Since: July 31, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 862
repeat and confirming 93L's coc on ir2,rgb,jsl at 16.9N 81.5W moving WNW with joging to the NW last few frames
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Quoting AllyBama:
good grief! I just wish that these systems rolling across the atl bore luggage tags, stating their destination!...sure would save some of us from endless hours of anxiety!..lol


Hey bama long time no see, I hope you still remember my greediness for snow! LOL
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Quoting hahaguy:
Seems like the models are like a sprinkler. They go from right to left and repeat the same motion.
Yup, like a high pressure hose, let go of.

Expecting a "swing back" on the 00 GFS.
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Quoting weatherh98:


kinda agree i dont think its a storm yet because the tstorms have weekend slitely suggesting d min

Yeah really, it just doesnt look good right now. At least not as good as earlier.
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

What the heck?!


More interesting than any ts this year
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6469
Quoting FLdewey:
Worse than any tropical system this year in MO right now...

AT 826 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 100 MPH...AND PING
PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF
GALLATIN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

Ship it!
Hope there aren't any oblivious people on stages...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2011. Matt74
Quoting Goldenblack:
Wow, that is one brave long term forecaster(s). I would not be so bold...

Very trresponsible. He is usually pretty good.
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2010. hahaguy
Seems like the models are like a sprinkler. They go from right to left and repeat the same motion.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tornadolarkin:
IMO, 93L is not looking good right now. It is running out of room, and probably wont get named. JMO.


kinda agree i dont think its a storm yet because the tstorms have weekend slitely suggesting d min
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6469
Wow, the radar has gone purple!



Quoting FLdewey:
Worse than any tropical system this year in MO right now...

AT 826 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 100 MPH...AND PING
PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF
GALLATIN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

Ship it!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLdewey:
Worse than any tropical system this year in MO right now...

AT 826 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 100 MPH...AND PING
PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF
GALLATIN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

Ship it!

What the heck?!
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 2311
good grief! I just wish that these systems rolling across the atl bore luggage tags, stating their destination!...sure would save some of us from endless hours of anxiety!..lol
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IMO, 93L is not looking good right now. It is running out of room, and probably wont get named. JMO.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Rita and Humberto went through TX. Humberto made landfall in TX.



And Rita "made landfall" on LA, but just barely:

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2002. Patrap
Quoting hamla:
tks patrap
i got hired 2 day
but its in the rigolets/lake bornge so who knows,also they opened up ross barnnet today 2 flush it out to gom


Congratulations.

Thanx for the flow too!

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Actually it appears to me they arent sheard at all but the lower level circulation appears to far south to make it
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6469
looks like 93L's COC is now at 16.9N 81.4W usin ir4
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1997. Patrap
Quoting vital1:
Thank you for posting that. I live on the Reservoir in MS and we upped our water output to send more down that way to help with the fish kill.



Every bit helps with that,the River and Lake are stressed.

Thanks for the Water influx.


Some species like that Sturgeon are endangered,,as they Go up the River for cooler waters and found this stuff.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
1996. Drakoen
Quoting Skyepony:


I agree & I don't often question those charts but even looking at 500mb vort~ the mid level.. that's nowhere near where we see it on Satellite..


Those vorticity maps are not perfect. They are done using a finite difference scheme. We need to remember that numerical solutions produce more errors than the analytic ones. In addition, part of the analysis involves using data from numerical model where data is sparse. They take output primarily from the NOGAPS and this data may be from model forecasted projections.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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