Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Thrawst:


............ or this:

Just check the archives. 2005 was the year the blog was started, and the comments are still there... mostly.
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Quoting amd:


agreed. although, i suppose that land interaction may get rid of all the nonsense on the southern side that has distorted the LLC, and maybe the LLC becomes more co-located with the MLC, but I would have waited to see if 93L stayed offshore long enough to have recon investigate it tomorrow morning.

Exactly. This is why I am questioning the decision. And convection seems to be waning, which 93L or TD8 has been doing over the last week. Back and forth.
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2094. Thrawst
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Bob has mentioned:

* Me
* Levi32
* MississippiWx
* CybrTeddy

And others...You should head over to the Barometer Bob show and get any questions you have answered.


How do you ask a question again?? :/
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Hey bama long time no see, I hope you still remember my greediness for snow! LOL


..yep...and I am still wishcasting some white stuff!..lol
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The NHC will have it up soon, within the next 45-50 minutes.


could you link the site you got it from ive waited a week to seethis wave get a status
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
TD#8? Wow! That thing is sickly looking.. Oh well
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I don't know what the cause was after Rita but it was hellishly hot after she passed through. Not a place to be with no power. And it was out for weeks in some places. Gives me the chills just thinking about it.


No kidding! Post Rita was horrible hot.
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2089. GetReal
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Quoting weatherh98:
where can i find info on 8


The NHC will have it up soon, within the next 45-50 minutes.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31537


And this 4-day OPC forecast may be of interest, since it shows the projected shape / extent of the AB high....

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Quoting EYEStoSEA:

What's that odd pulse of blue in the gif?
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3183
Quoting AllyBama:
Hey Taco! I have been fine - just getting more meaner and honery by the day!..lol


Nope I'm sorry I just don't believe that at all....

Just Better by the day :o)
hehehehe

Taco :o)
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2084. xcool
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where can i find info on 8
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
This one drove us nuts





I think Ivan was one of the worst to track. He just didn't want to die.
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2081. Thrawst
Quoting dfwstormwatch:

what would bloggers do with a storm like this?


............ or this:

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2080. Patrap
Quoting P451:
TD8



Devoid of deep convection.


A merry go round with no riders.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
earthlydragonfly - ROFL

I paid close attention to my typing
and spelling!..lol


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Bob has mentioned:

* Me
* Levi32
* MississippiWx
* CybrTeddy

And others...You should head over to the Barometer Bob show and get any questions you have answered.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31537
2077. Gearsts
WeathernerdPR lol nice job
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Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Clearly, the NHC thinks its going to miss.

Looks to me on loop like its heading west..... which if I have the COC in the right spot, means it should be riding the edge of the Honduras soon. JMO
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Its going through DMIN.
Yah, I know. But, I don't see 93L/08 being a real threat to anyone. Possibly not even enough rain for mudslides...
So, what's the point?
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2073. amd
Quoting tornadolarkin:
Are you kidding? 93L is renumbered right before it hits land? And it doesnt even look that great right now.


agreed. although, i suppose that land interaction may get rid of all the nonsense on the southern side that has distorted the LLC, and maybe the LLC becomes more co-located with the MLC, but I would have waited to see if 93L stayed offshore long enough to have recon investigate it tomorrow morning.
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Quoting AllyBama:
Hey Taco! I have been fine - just getting more meaner and honery by the day!..lol


Hey did you see my previous comment (I quoted you) about the snow?
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Barometer Bob

Worried Weathernerd ?

Aussie -- did you really ask that ?
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
Quoting AllyBama:
Hey Taco! I have been fine - just getting more meaner and honery by the day!..lol


WOW that was close... LOL
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Quoting atmoaggie:
lol.
Gets a renumber at the same time it loses the deepest convection it's ever had:


Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/lo op_timestamp_640.asp?data_folder=rmtc/rmtcsasec4ir 404


Its going through DMIN.
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2068. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Drakoen:


Those vorticity maps are not perfect. They are done using a finite difference scheme. We need to remember that numerical solutions produce more errors than the analytic ones. In addition, part of the analysis involves using data from numerical model where data is sparse. They take output primarily from the NOGAPS and this data may be from model forecasted projections.


It's right where the 12zNOGAPS forecast it. I think you've nailed the error on the head.

As for 93L NOGAPS has showed a little skill the last few days. HWRF, GFDL & LGEM is fighting for the lead. No models have shown any real skill beyond three days.
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Quoting taco2me61:
I have a new laptop so I donot have the Link for Barometer Bob Show could someone send it to me or even the web address.... TIA

Taco :o)
Link
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2065. Gorty
We have TD 8
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Quoting atmoaggie:
lol.
Gets a renumber at the same time it loses it deepest convection:


Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/lo op_timestamp_640.asp?data_folder=rmtc/rmtcsasec4ir 404


8 hours ago sure, now no way
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Quoting tornadolarkin:
Are you kidding? 93L is renumbered right before it hits land? And it doesnt even look that great right now.


93L (TD #8) is forecast to pass to the north of Honduras, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31537
2062. angiest
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I don't know what the cause was after Rita but it was hellishly hot after she passed through. Not a place to be with no power. And it was out for weeks in some places. Gives me the chills just thinking about it.


It may or may not have been hotter than normal, but if you can't get to relief, it could certainly seem worse.

Last October our A/C went out (so glad it was then and not now!) Even then it was still very hot, and all the more miserable from not being able to get relief at home. We spent a fair amount of time with some friends those days.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Hey Taco! I have been fine - just getting more meaner and honery by the day!..lol
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About time eh? Chances are that 08L becomes Harvey before making landfall (which I firmly believe will be over Belize).
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
we have renumber

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al932011_al082011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108190146
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
lol.
Gets a renumber at the same time it loses the deepest convection it's ever had:


Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/lo op_timestamp_640.asp?data_folder=rmtc/rmtcsasec4ir 404
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Quoting tornadolarkin:
Are you kidding? 93L is renumbered right before it hits land? And it doesnt even look that great right now.


Clearly, the NHC thinks its going to miss.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23619
tropical anylist where at homes
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Are you kidding? 93L is renumbered right before it hits land? And it doesnt even look that great right now.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
GFS ensemble members updated:




Pretty definitive steering, wherever the weakness resides, yabang....
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im guessing a 10 pm central time advisory
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Quoting tornadolarkin:

93L? No way? Seriously?


yes, ATCF has a renumber.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23619
invest_RENUMBER_al932011_al082011.ren
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but I think the coordinates are very wrong sa I said just couple of seconds ago location at 16.9N 81.5W
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
TD #8!!!!!!!!!!!

93L? No way? Seriously?
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Quoting angiest:
Something else scary about the 18Z run, about three days after landfall it shows ridging building back into areas that will be without power for quite some time (based on the strength of the storm depicted).





It is normally still in the 90s for afternoon highs in early September here.


I don't know what the cause was after Rita but it was hellishly hot after she passed through. Not a place to be with no power. And it was out for weeks in some places. Gives me the chills just thinking about it.
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Quoting FLdewey:
Worse than any tropical system this year in MO right now...

AT 826 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 100 MPH...AND PING
PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF
GALLATIN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

Ship it!


Building partially on road
Radio Reference live audio
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.