Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting EastTexJake:
Had a problem with the blog. Whenever I refresh and the "Budget rental" banner ad loads up top, the blog fails to load, the page says "Done" and I have to refresh repeated times until some other banner ad loads up top. Is there a better place to report this than here?


There's a link to support at the bottom of the page. Prob. not worth the time, just get AdBlock Plus and get rid of all the ads.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
looks like 93L's COC is now at 16.9N 81.4W usin ir4
if thats true, 93L is going to Belize or Yucatan
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Quoting lucreto:
Looks like the season is in bust territory at this point.


yea 7 named storms so far what a bust

some of you wont be satisfied until a hurricane destroys some town

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2143. Patrap
Quoting presslord:


well........nope......I just can't .....


..resistance is futile.

concentrate, you must
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
Quoting Gorty:


Another reference to 2006.


Why are you quoting that idiot who thinks Charley was a Cat 2 at landfall?
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2141. Drakoen
Quoting presslord:


well........nope......I just can't .....


LOL
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2139. Gorty
Quoting lucreto:
Looks like the season is in bust territory at this point.


Another reference to 2006.
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Guys why should we focus on the 18z Run of the GFS. First of all it's an off model run. I would be more concerned if the 00z Run show this change.
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Quoting redwagon:

What's that odd pulse of blue in the gif?


Hey Redwagon...it's just reflection coming from the radar sites. It's a beauty of a visual isn't it....:)
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Quoting presslord:


well........nope......I just can't .....
Press.... behave!

LOL
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Memories.


The strangest memory of Rita I have is that while we were riding the storm out at the shelter in Colmesneil, my son (who was 17 at the time) decided that it would be a good idea to go outside of the high school gym we were in, hold on to one of the poles along the walkway, and let the wind literally lift him off the ground. I wanted to kill that kid when I finally got him to come back inside.
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Quoting presslord:


well........nope......I just can't .....


LMAO!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting presslord:


well........nope......I just can't .....


Just step back and leave it alone. Lol.
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Quoting presslord:


well........nope......I just can't .....


AWWWWW.....come on...you know you wanna....
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could TD 8 center re from
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





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Quoting Thrawst:



I'll take a look at it... this could be loooooong.
BTW
I see you were a member since October 25,2005... did you by any chance join WU because of Hurricane Wilma? :P
What made you think that??? ;o)

Do you remember how West End got almost washed away and nobody was really expecting it? Wilma was a beast.
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Quoting NavarreMark:


Why does it take em 45-50 minutes to get it up?


well........nope......I just can't .....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Center of 93l TD#8 roughly 210-230 miles due south of Grand Cayman.Getting some slight showers here periodically on the southwest side of the Island.
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2126. Dennis8
Quoting P451:
Official 0000Z center fix on a 0015Z image.



Right on the money..thanks
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2124. Dennis8
Quoting PlyWoodNative2011:
Hi


Evening
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2122. Dennis8
Quoting aspectre:
Because it's quite possible that a TropicalCyclone will be making landfall ~9hours from now...

15.3n76.5w, 15.4n78.0w, 15.4n79.4w, 15.4n80.4w have been re-evaluated&altered for 93L's_[]mGMT_ATCF
15.2n76.6w, 15.3n78.1w, 15.3n79.4w, 15.4n80.4w, 15.4n81.5w are now the most recent positions
Starting 18August_12amGMT and ending 19August_12amGMT

The 4 short line-segments represent TS.Gert's path and
the longest line-segment is the straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
93L's travel-speed was 12.2mph(19.6k/h) while heading dueWest.
As of 12amGMT, 93L's center position was 139miles(234kilometres) from Cauquira,Honduras

Copy&paste gcm, 15.2n76.6w-15.3n78.1w, 15.3n78.1w-15.3n79.4w, 15.3n79.4w-15.4n80.4w, 15.4n80.4w-15.4n81.5w, cdd, bgk into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 18August_6pmGMT)


Very nice..thanks
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Had a problem with the blog. Whenever I refresh and the "Budget rental" banner ad loads up top, the blog fails to load, the page says "Done" and I have to refresh repeated times until some other banner ad loads up top. Is there a better place to report this than here?
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Quoting PlyWoodNative2011:
Hi

welcome
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
2119. Patrap
Quoting Charliesgirl:



You are right. I live on the pearl river floodplain. The fish kill in the eighties wiped out fishing for nearly a decade. My husband said the freshwater clams were trying to climb out of the water.



I was away overseas and back when folks still wrote letters,my Dad mostly wrote about it.

Was really bad as you mentioned.

Caught my first fish in the Bouga Falaya.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
Quoting NavarreMark:


Why does it take em 45-50 minutes to get it up?


advisory times
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Because it's quite possible that a TropicalCyclone will be making landfall ~9hours from now...

15.3n76.5w, 15.4n78.0w, 15.4n79.4w, 15.4n80.4w have been re-evaluated&altered for TD.8's_12mGMT_ATCF
15.2n76.6w, 15.3n78.1w, 15.3n79.4w, 15.4n80.4w, 15.4n81.5w are now the most recent positions
Starting 18August_12amGMT and ending 19August_12amGMT

The 4 short line-segments represent TD.8's path and
the longest line-segment is the straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
TD.8's travel-speed was 12.2mph(19.6k/h) while heading dueWest.
As of 12amGMT, TD.8's center position was 139miles(234kilometres) from Cauquira,Honduras(cdd)

Copy&paste gcm, 15.2n76.6w-15.3n78.1w, 15.3n78.1w-15.3n79.4w, 15.3n79.4w-15.4n80.4w, 15.4n80.4w-15.4n81.5w, cdd, bgk into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 18August_6pmGMT)
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2115. Dennis8
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I don't know what the cause was after Rita but it was hellishly hot after she passed through. Not a place to be with no power. And it was out for weeks in some places. Gives me the chills just thinking about it.


95 degrees at 9pm in Houston Heights after 104....
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Quoting AllyBama:
YEA!!!!...Thelmores shows up just in time with his magic pen! I love you Thelmores..lol


AWWW I hope thelmores is blushing lol!
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Quoting amd:


I was checking the 850 mb imagery on CIMSS by going back for the previous 24 hours, and I think the problem is actually from the south. I think the lower-level circulation of 93L was too close to the monsoonal trough off South America, and it looked like they actually merged today in the lower levels. This completely distorted the lower-levels of 93L, and caused the low-level circulation to elongate in a north-south direction for much of the day.

On recent ramsdis imagery, it looks like 93L is trying to close a small LLC just north of 15 N, but I think it is happening too close to Honduras to matter too much. IMO.
Sounds good to me ... lol

I'm glad someone has an explanation. All I know is that this system has looked sick forever.
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2112. Patrap








www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/hurricanes
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
I think since 93L TD#8 is above the 15 lat line it will miss the Hon/Nic border and possible miss Honduras altogether , my guess is landfall Belize/Chetumal , MX, which will give it another day or 2 over water! JMO.
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Quoting Patrap:



Nasty stuff..that Happened once before in the 80's as well if my mem is working



You are right. I live on the pearl river floodplain. The fish kill in the eighties wiped out fishing for nearly a decade. My husband said the freshwater clams were trying to climb out of the water.
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Quoting EastTexJake:


No kidding! Post Rita was horrible hot.


Yeah. It was bad. Was much cooler after Ike.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You have to go to Storm Chat.


cuz im from the nola area ican say this.... Reppin' the teens boy... on barometer bob
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting thelmores:
93/Harvey seems to be struggling with convection on the west side........



08L now and the center is on the WSWrn edge of your circle.
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2105. Thrawst
Quoting BahaHurican:
Just check the archives. 2005 was the year the blog was started, and the comments are still there... mostly.



I'll take a look at it... this could be loooooong.
BTW
I see you were a member since October 25,2005... did you by any chance join WU because of Hurricane Wilma? :P
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Quoting tornadolarkin:

Exactly. This is why I am questioning the decision. And convection seems to be waning, which 93L or TD8 has been doing over the last week. Back and forth.


convection isnt everything, even weak systems as they are developing wax and wane in convection

wait until diurnal max 6-7 hours from now and you will see convection back
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YEA!!!!...Thelmores shows up just in time with his magic pen! I love you Thelmores..lol
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Quoting Thrawst:


How do you ask a question again?? :/


You have to go to Storm Chat.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32813
Quoting AllyBama:
earthlydragonfly - ROFL

I paid close attention to my typing
and spelling!..lol




lmao
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Bob has mentioned:

* Me
* Levi32
* MississippiWx
* CybrTeddy

And others...You should head over to the Barometer Bob show and get any questions you have answered.


who exactly????
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting weatherh98:


could you link the site you got it from ive waited a week to seethis wave get a status
Link
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93/Harvey seems to be struggling with convection on the west side........

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2097. Patrap
As for the 2011 Season,,she has thrown down some cards to set us up maybe,.certainly swept out some bad air and dust, too.

A couple Aces in the right spot, and she could Call.

Somewhere in a Weeks time.




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
Quoting Thrawst:


............ or this:

Just check the archives. 2005 was the year the blog was started, and the comments are still there... mostly.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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