Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 190120
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
ISSUED 757 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011

EXTENDED PERIOD...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE OVER S FLA THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH CLIMO POPS. NOCTURNAL E COAST
AND DIURNAL INTERIOR AND W CONVECTION EXPECTED. THE LONG RANGE MODELS
LINING UP AND AGREEING THAT A DEVELOPING TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES
THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...LOADING ECMWF WINDS AND
LEAVING WEATHER AS IS PENDING ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE/DEVELOPMENT.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2194. NASA101
18Z Ensemble run in ever more West..

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Quoting P451:
AL, 08, 2011081900, , BEST, 0, 154N, 815W, 30, 1006, TD,
it needs to get north of 16.0N or it'd going to be shortlived. This am,HH found lowest pressure of 1009.9mb at 15.0N 78.5W.Looked earlier to me on a RAMDIS loop to be going WNW. If it gets to 16.2N, it could get some strength and go to Belize or Yucatan.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
if thats true, 93L is going to Belize or Yucatan

Nothing else explains the upgrade. And you can't blame the NHC: the models have been doing crazy loops and other strangeness for a system about to landfall.

Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3237
lucreto, check mail.
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Quoting will40:


pleads da fifth


i live right around the corner from that carolina boi...and trust me...i have no problem speaking my mind... :)
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2189. angiest
lovemamatus will be returning soon, I think.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
2188. Patrap
Camille Struck,42 years ago last night,,

Stark reminders of the Chart..and where were at in the 2011 Season.




Gom to the right..Debris field from Surge Washed away homes in Biloxi,,Hwy 90 to left.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128272
2187. will40
Quoting tiggeriffic:


like what pray tell?


pleads da fifth
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Quoting P451:


Sounds like they think 97 is going to be a significant system for the western Caribbean.

That comment about storms west of 50W is right. Every storm that passed through there has tried to bust a gut. If 97L gets there with any serious structure, and even 5mph slower forward speed, we'd all better watch out.
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Quoting will40:
those guys in da Carolinas are like that


like what pray tell?
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Kudos to the San Juan NWS..best to be prepared and informative..
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Quoting PaulinJax:
Good Evening

Whats up with 93 L ?




its now TD 8
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115084
Quoting PaulinJax:
Good Evening

Whats up with 93 L ?


It is a tropical depression now.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32029
MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR TC
DEVELOPMENT OVR THE WEEKEND. MODELS BECOMING MORE CLUSTERED IN
TRACK OF H85 VORT CENTER AND SFC LOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. LATEST GUIDANCE HAVE ALSO SPED UP
ARRIVAL OF SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING INTO THE
USVI BY DAYBREAK SUN AND INTO ERN PR BY MIDDAY SUN. RAIN NOW
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY MON EVENING. WITH REGARDS TO
INTENSITY...NHC/HPC 1PM COORDINATION TODAY SHOWED TROPICAL WAVE
REACHING TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS BY 12Z MON AND LATEST GLOBAL
MODELS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING MORE THAN A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM AS
WAVE MOVES JUST SOUTH OF PR SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...ONCE WAVE CROSSES
50 WEST IT WILL ENTER AN AREA OF HIGH OCEANIC CONTENT AND MORE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. REGARDLESS OF THE
INTENSITY...THIS SYSTEM POSES A MODERATE FLASH FLOODING THREAT
ASSUMING ENOUGH CONVECTION DEVELOPS. ALL INTERESTS IN PR AND USVI
ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.
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2179. will40
those guys in da Carolinas are like that
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Good Evening

Whats up with 93 L ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting lucreto:


Give me an official measurement saying otherwise.


here ya go...btw...when it says MAJOR HURRICANE...that means at least CAT 3

Link
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2175. Dennis8
.CLIMATE...
UPDATED THE DROUGHT STATEMENT (DGTHGX) THIS EVENING. RAINFALL
DEFICITS RUNNING BETWEEN 20 AND 25 INCHES SINCE LAST OCTOBER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE 104 AT IAH AND 105 AT CLL. THIS IS THE
18TH CONSECUTIVE DAY OF 100 DEGREE HEAT AND THE 29TH DAY OF THE
SUMMER WITH THE TEMPERATURE AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES FOR THE CITY
OF HOUSTON. DID YOU KNOW THAT HOUSTON HAS HAD 40 DAYS THIS SUMMER WITH
THE TEMPERATURE AT OR ABOVE 99 DEGREES? THIS TIES 1980 WITH 40
DAYS AT OR ABOVE 99 DEGREES. ALSO THE 18 100 DEGREE DAYS IN AUGUST
TIES THE MOST 100 DEGREE DAYS IN A MONTH (JULY 1980). DID YOU KNOW
THAT HOUSTON HAS HAD 21 MORNINGS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
80 DEGREES IN 2011? THIS TIES FOR THE THIRD MOST (1963) IN CITY
HISTORY. ONLY 1962 (26) AND 1964 (25) HAD MORE. 43
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invest_RENUMBER_al902011_al042011.ren 4 KB 7/27/2011 7:17:00 PM
File:invest_RENUMBER_al912011_al052011.ren 4 KB 8/1/2011 10:19:00 PM
File:invest_RENUMBER_al932011_al082011.ren 6 KB 8/19/2010 1:46:00 AM
File:invest_RENUMBER_al942011_al072011.ren 2 KB 8/14/2011 12:37:00 AM
File:invest_RENUMBER_al952011_al012011.ren 2 KB 6/28/2011 11:16:00 PM
File:invest_RENUMBER_al952011_al062011.ren 2 KB 8/12/2011 8:08:00 PM
File:invest_RENUMBER_al982011_al022011.ren 2 KB 7/17/2011 7:55:00 PM
File:invest_RENUMBER_al992011_al032011.ren



the olny one that i need now for it turn too be renumber is 97L and then from 90 too 99L will all had there turn this year of becomeing a name storm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115084
Quoting tiggeriffic:


i say we locate all trolls by their ISP addresses, watch for a major hurricane to hit some deserted island...pick em all up by C-17...make em all jump out with parachutes onto the island and leave em...


cant we just ship them federal express?
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Link98LWVLoop



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Expect a relatively late advisory since they probably have to prep watches and warnings for Honduras and Belize.

(Now watch the advisory come in within the next 2 minutes...)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


invest_RENUMBER_al932011_al082011.ren

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al932011_al082011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108190146
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END


congrats to all who have been looking at,following 93L and called it hours ago, way to go
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2168. Patrap
..Charley was a Bad Boy.

Right turn Charley was a perfect example,,of "Follow the Storm" as well first,, over the forecast as it dont have Ears nor Wi-Fi.

If your in a Warned area..the eyewall can and usually will find you 75% of the time.


from the videographer,


Hurricane Charley strengthened rapidly just before striking the southwestern coast of Florida, over Charlotte Harbor, as a Category Four hurricane. Although extremely small in size, Charley produced sustained winds of 150mph and gusts to near 175mph, causing catastrophic wind damage in the communities of Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda, FL. The Charlotte County Medical Center recorded an unofficial gust of 150kts (173mph) and the Charlotte County Airport recorded 139kts (160mph). Charley's minimum central pressure at landfall was 942mb (27.82in) and I recorded 950mb (28.05in) at my location near Fawcett Memorial Hospital. Veteran storm chaser Andy Dressler accompanied me on this chase.

Category:




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128272
Quoting Tazmanian:
i think the center of TD 8 is going too refrom



Land friction may give it a bump Nward too. Existing center looks pretty well defined to me, never know with the weak ones, they always pull tricks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2166. xcool
San Juan NWS:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1000 PM AST THU AUG 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NE OF PR/USVI EXPECTED TO LIFT NE AND AWAY
FROM THE REGION. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS.
TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC MAY BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT APPROACHES THE NE CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TUTT LOW NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION WILL KEEP AIR MASS UNSTABLE THROUGH TOMORROW. THINGS
DRY OUT SUBSTANTIALLY FOR SAT-SAT NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES
AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC.

MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR TC
DEVELOPMENT OVR THE WEEKEND. MODELS BECOMING MORE CLUSTERED IN
TRACK OF H85 VORT CENTER AND SFC LOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. LATEST GUIDANCE HAVE ALSO SPED UP
ARRIVAL OF SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING INTO THE
USVI BY DAYBREAK SUN AND INTO ERN PR BY MIDDAY SUN. RAIN NOW
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY MON EVENING. WITH REGARDS TO
INTENSITY...NHC/HPC 1PM COORDINATION TODAY SHOWED TROPICAL WAVE
REACHING TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS BY 12Z MON AND LATEST GLOBAL
MODELS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING MORE THAN A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM AS
WAVE MOVES JUST SOUTH OF PR SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...ONCE WAVE CROSSES
50 WEST IT WILL ENTER AN AREA OF HIGH OCEANIC CONTENT AND MORE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. REGARDLESS OF THE
INTENSITY...THIS SYSTEM POSES A MODERATE FLASH FLOODING THREAT
ASSUMING ENOUGH CONVECTION DEVELOPS. ALL INTERESTS IN PR AND USVI
ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY
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2165. ncstorm
I dont know if this was posted today but here is a video of the waterspout we had in Wilmington today.

Link
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TD 8 97L and 98L are going too have a good D MAX


all so if TD 8 can have a good D MAX we will have a TS un less the HH find one when they go in
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115084
2163. Dennis8
Quoting cctxshirl:


I was 15 during Hurricane Celia in 1970 and it was so hot and muggy after the storm and no power for 3 or 4 weeks because at that time there weren't as many people working for the power companies and they just didn't bring a lot of people in--you just had to wait until the locals could do the repairs.


I was 8 when she hit at 3pm in the afternoon .....have you seen the youtube video of the aftermath of Ceilia? I have the NWS hourly observations from when I was in college studying meterology I used them for a paper
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Quoting Clearwater1:
Really, no one seemed that concerned when 15 consecutive gfs runs had it hitting Hispaniola, FL and then up the coast.
This was one off model run. Let's see the next one and the one after that. The 18z may have been a fluke.


excuse me...i have been watching that one for DAYS!!! even commented that it is unusual for something that hadn't even developed to have that many consistant runs...i LIVE where those runs said it was going by the 28th...
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Quoting Clearwater1:
Really, no one seemrf that concern when 15 consecutive gfs runs had it hitting Hispaniola, FL and then up the coast.
This was one off model run. Let's see the next one and the one after that. The 18z may have been a fluke.
My feelings are really hurt that you didn't mention how the Bahamas got run over in every one of those 15 consecutive runs!

LOL

But isn't there some "law" that says if it hits us in the early runs it'll really go west to TX???

[waggles eyebrows]
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i think the center of TD 8 is going too refrom
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115084
97L priming to look like a player in the morning.



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Quoting EastTexJake:


No kidding! Post Rita was horrible hot.


I was 15 during Hurricane Celia in 1970 and it was so hot and muggy after the storm and no power for 3 or 4 weeks because at that time there weren't as many people working for the power companies and they just didn't bring a lot of people in--you just had to wait until the locals could do the repairs.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


yea 7 named storms so far what a bust

some of you wont be satisfied until a hurricane destroys some town




As Patrap would say, "don't quote idiocracy"

Especially if he thinks that Charley was a Cat 2 at landfall.
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2154. Patrap
00z Invest98y Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest98 Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128272
Quoting Patrap:
As for the 2011 Season,,she has thrown down some cards to set us up maybe,.certainly swept out some bad air and dust, too.

A couple Aces in the right spot, and she could Call.

Somewhere in a Weeks time.




Something very unusual will happen this year. I don't know yet if it will be a single mega storm, and something we've never seen before, or several very large storms making landfall on CONUS.

I just know that something weird will happen this year.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


yea 7 named storms so far what a bust

some of you wont be satisfied until a hurricane destroys some town



i say we locate all trolls by their ISP addresses, watch for a major hurricane to hit some deserted island...pick em all up by C-17...make em all jump out with parachutes onto the island and leave em...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:
Guys why should we focus on the 18z Run of the GFS. First of all it's an off model run. I would be more concerned if the 00z Run show this change.
Really, no one seemed that concerned when 15 consecutive gfs runs had it hitting Hispaniola, FL and then up the coast.
This was one off model run. Let's see the next one and the one after that. The 18z may have been a fluke.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1548
Quoting Hurricanes101:


yea 7 named storms so far what a bust

some of you wont be satisfied until a hurricane destroys some town



Ignore him, he's a troll.. not even a good one at that.
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Quoting LillyMyrrh:


The strangest memory of Rita I have is that while we were riding the storm out at the shelter in Colmesneil, my son (who was 17 at the time) decided that it would be a good idea to go outside of the high school gym we were in, hold on to one of the poles along the walkway, and let the wind literally lift him off the ground. I wanted to kill that kid when I finally got him to come back inside.


Wow! I can imagine. She was still pretty wound up by then. I missed the whole thing. Sleeping off the evacuation in NE TX. Woke up the next day and the deed was done. Then began the aftermath. The longggg aftermath. Hope no one gets another like that one!
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 128
2148. hahaguy
Quoting presslord:


well........nope......I just can't .....


Too easy.
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Quoting Gorty:


Another reference to 2006.
Some people live in the past...
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Quoting EastTexJake:
Had a problem with the blog. Whenever I refresh and the "Budget rental" banner ad loads up top, the blog fails to load, the page says "Done" and I have to refresh repeated times until some other banner ad loads up top. Is there a better place to report this than here?


There's a link to support at the bottom of the page. Prob. not worth the time, just get AdBlock Plus and get rid of all the ads.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.