Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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2246. Dennis8
Quoting Levi32:
TD 8 looks like it's on course for a close scrape with the northern coast of Honduras. If its exact track keeps it several dozen miles offshore, then we may see additional strengthening. If the track is just over the coastline or inland, then the storm will likely remain very weak or dissipate. Regardless, extraordinary intensification is unlikely in any event, and this will mainly be a rainfall issue for Honduras and Belize.


Thank you..That is a no brainer
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Quoting BahaHurican:
My feelings are really hurt that you didn't mention how the Bahamas got run over in every one of those 15 consecutive runs!

LOL

But isn't there some "law" that says if it hits us in the early runs it'll really go west to TX???

[waggles eyebrows]

Sorry, about that. Yes, you got clobbered in the early runs as well. Lol And yes, it' always good to be a direct target the early runs, because they never seem to hit the first spot the zone in on. No science here, but I have noticed that as well.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1547
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10157
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Quoting dfwstormwatch:


JINX!!!
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2241. Levi32
TD 8 looks like it's on course for a close scrape with the northern coast of Honduras. If its exact track keeps it several dozen miles offshore, then we may see additional strengthening. If the track is just over the coastline or inland, then the storm will likely remain very weak or dissipate. Regardless, extraordinary intensification is unlikely in any event, and this will mainly be a rainfall issue for Honduras and Belize.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26465
2240. nigel20

Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7483
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30297
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2237. Patrap
..night kman,, have the Chablis,,2.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125736
I think a strong Hurricane hitting the upper Texas coast would be even worse after this drought. There are so many dead and weakened trees. And I don't know how the dry cracked soil will react to a sudden soaking combined with strong winds. Could result in many many more downed power lines and trees thru houses. If we have triple digit highs during a power outage, that might cause more deaths from heat than the actual hurricane.
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Quoting TerraNova:


Nope, frontal boundary.


Where, do you think Bret, Cindy, Franklin, and Gert came from?

Frontal boundaries that stalled out in the area.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30297
2234. Patrap
Well that was nice of dem .

Geaux Tigah's

www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/hurricanes/2011/pre-st orm
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30297
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Is that another system trying to develop SE of N Carolina?


Nope, frontal boundary.
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2230. wxhatt
Quoting kmanislander:
See you all tomorrow


Later KMan
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2229. xcool
28th-31st. Hot and steamy. A hurricane threat for the Southeast.


http://www.farmersalmanac.com/long-range-weather- forecast/southeast-us/
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000
WTNT33 KNHC 190249
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 82.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE COAST OF GUATEMALA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST
OF HONDURAS AND THE BAY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE
NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND
APPROACH SOUTHERN BELIZE ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM ON
FRIDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST
OF HONDURAS ON FRIDAY AND ON THE COAST OF GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA AND
BELIZE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10157
2227. Patrap
Thats a Lotta atmo and Mojo, as well.

98L


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125736
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 82.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE COAST OF GUATEMALA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST
OF HONDURAS AND THE BAY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE
NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND
APPROACH SOUTHERN BELIZE ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM ON
FRIDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST
OF HONDURAS ON FRIDAY AND ON THE COAST OF GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA AND
BELIZE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30297
TD Eight will likely parallel the coast of Honduras, bringing rain.
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2224. nigel20

Hey guys? new convection popping up over 97L.
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See you all tomorrow
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2222. Patrap

Never seen ESL pubilsh so fast on a invest in 6years


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125736
Is that another system trying to develop SE of N Carolina?
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2220. wn1995
As I go to bed tonight I leave with this:

TD 8 should continue to slowly organize and gain strength through landfall in central america, and will likely become a 40-45 mph ts Harvey sometime tomorrow, but nothing more than that.

97L is rather disorganized this evening and is battling quite a bit of dry air, however, conditions should be becoming steadily more favorable, and I expect a TD to form out of this within 3-5 days. It has the potential to eventually become a hurricane, depending on what potential interaction with the caribbean islands does to it, and the pattern is one that is overall favorable for the US to be threatened.

98L is pretty organized,and will likely continue to organize, and may develop into a TD within 2-4 days, the track is pretty uncertain at this point, but a general W- WNW track is anticipated over the next 24-48 hours at least.

Goodnight everyone!
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2219. xcool



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2217. will40
Quoting AllyBama:


WILL!...long time no see..so glad to see you..hope all is well on Emerald Isle..




Hi Ally yes things are good. The fishing time of the year is comming up
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2216. Patrap


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125736
Looks like the creature from Aliens if I may say so myself.

Cool loop #1 and #2.

If any of you feel lost in the world of weather, check out that giant list of links I wrote up a few years ago. Update pending.

Self promotion is done, night all! ;)

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Advisory for TD #8 should be coming out soon.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30297
Quoting will40:
those guys in da Carolinas are like that


WILL!...long time no see..so glad to see you..hope all is well on Emerald Isle..
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TD8 is probably going to be slow to strengthen unless it can become more vertically stacked. A nice burst of convection over the center could help do the trick, but it doesn't have that yet.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10157
Quoting xcool:
San Juan NWS:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1000 PM AST THU AUG 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NE OF PR/USVI EXPECTED TO LIFT NE AND AWAY
FROM THE REGION. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS.
TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC MAY BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT APPROACHES THE NE CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TUTT LOW NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION WILL KEEP AIR MASS UNSTABLE THROUGH TOMORROW. THINGS
DRY OUT SUBSTANTIALLY FOR SAT-SAT NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES
AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC.

MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR TC
DEVELOPMENT OVR THE WEEKEND. MODELS BECOMING MORE CLUSTERED IN
TRACK OF H85 VORT CENTER AND SFC LOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. LATEST GUIDANCE HAVE ALSO SPED UP
ARRIVAL OF SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING INTO THE
USVI BY DAYBREAK SUN AND INTO ERN PR BY MIDDAY SUN. RAIN NOW
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY MON EVENING. WITH REGARDS TO
INTENSITY...NHC/HPC 1PM COORDINATION TODAY SHOWED TROPICAL WAVE
REACHING TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS BY 12Z MON AND LATEST GLOBAL
MODELS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING MORE THAN A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM AS
WAVE MOVES JUST SOUTH OF PR SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...ONCE WAVE CROSSES
50 WEST IT WILL ENTER AN AREA OF HIGH OCEANIC CONTENT AND MORE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. REGARDLESS OF THE
INTENSITY...THIS SYSTEM POSES A MODERATE FLASH FLOODING THREAT
ASSUMING ENOUGH CONVECTION DEVELOPS. ALL INTERESTS IN PR AND USVI
ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY
estamos pendientes...we are watching!
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Quoting angiest:
Something else scary about the 18Z run, about three days after landfall it shows ridging building back into areas that will be without power for quite some time (based on the strength of the storm depicted).





It is normally still in the 90s for afternoon highs in early September here.


I live in indiana. need some rain but that looks like a mess.
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93L on track to come ashore just N of the Nicaragua / Honduras border. Now near 15.5 N and 81.8 W

Landfall tomorrow in the absence of a significant track change.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Will D max help a TD?


Yep.
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ok...time to go to bed...early day tomorrow...yay me
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00z nam 72 hours out
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Quoting P451:
TD8



Devoid of deep convection.


Will D max help a TD?
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looks like it is moving more North then before
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Quoting will40:



was just messin with Press tigg


lol...i know...i litterally live just a few miles from him roflmbo...i TRIED to get him to say it... :)
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Quoting will40:



was just messin with Press tigg


;-)
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
Quoting presslord:


well........nope......I just can't .....
just tell him...ther is a little blue pill for that.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It is a tropical depression now.


Maybe some Paxil would help?
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2197. will40
Quoting tiggeriffic:


i live right around the corner from that carolina boi...and trust me...i have no problem speaking my mind... :)



was just messin with Press tigg
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.