Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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3596. MTWX
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


LOL

I feel 90 when Im rolling out of bed and a low pressure system (of any kind) is in town....

Somehow in life I have turned into a human weather station...

You and me both!
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Quoting BoroDad17:
Man, if GFS came true, that not be good for my family, My parents and brother and sister live in Tampa and Sarasota (where they keep their boat), and I am in Statesboro. No helping each other out with that.
Link please.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


The GFDL says South!


We spoke about a Southerly track this morning but this is even farther South than I thought as that track is a heading of 270 degrees
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Quoting hurricanehanna:


Have we had a general consensus of the models like this during this season for any of the other invests?


NOPE........NONE!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439


The HWRF.......says south also.......
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting TampaSpin:



Any Doubt where it is going..........


dang...
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Way too many models now have a MAJOR HURRICANE in the GOM with a front bearing down!!!!


Have we had a general consensus of the models like this during this season for any of the other invests?
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The GFDL says South!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting wpb:
00z run?


12z
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3587. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53286
97L

RED ALERT LEVEL MIGHT BE COMING!!!!

It is looking a lot better. I honest would not be surprised if it goes RED Alert by 11 PM.

Link
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3585. MahFL
Quoting TampaSpin:



Any Doubt where it is going..........


Yes !, it's crucial to the storms strength, along the islands will be weak, north or south possibly strong.

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Kinda a surprised they didn't upgrade TD#8, but what do I know, I know I've seen them upgrade TDs to TSs with less supportive data before , just saying....
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In my opinion, we should see a track similar to the 00ZECMWF
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
NAO still weakly positive (0.99543E-01). I'll lean the Caribbean/Gulf route if we see this go more positive the next couple days.

What is the North Atlantic Oscillation?

The oscillation of the pressure difference between the Subtropical Ridge and the Icelandic Low.

The Positive NAO index phase shows a stronger than usual subtropical high pressure center and a deeper than normal Icelandic low.

The negative NAO index phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low.


Well put for those that don't understand...i gave you a +1 for that......LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting MahFL:


Not a good year for some festival go'ers.

Also an observation...with all the smartphones around, why aren't people more prepared for storms ?


Europe is behind America when it comes to weather warnings. Well behind. Less violent weather occurrences is probably the case.

I don't know if there were warnings around in Belgium, but I do think European mets were aware of the system.
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Quoting SavannahStorm:



This is not a scenario I'm too thrilled with...
That's 3 models back 8/18/11. The latest 1200z gfs is not out yet, but, you are right, who would be happy with that, or any of the scenarios presented by most of the models?

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NAO still weakly positive (0.99543E-01). I'll lean the Caribbean/Gulf route if we see this go more positive the next couple days.

What is the North Atlantic Oscillation?

The oscillation of the pressure difference between the Subtropical Ridge and the Icelandic Low.

The Positive NAO index phase shows a stronger than usual subtropical high pressure center and a deeper than normal Icelandic low.

The negative NAO index phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low.
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Quoting islander101010:
not all wanee 2011 was big time fun


I'll be at wanee 2012...we should have a WU tent!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 98



Any Doubt where it is going..........
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
um... am I on everybody's ignore list? I'm not trolling, guys :(
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3575. MahFL
Quoting islander101010:
not all wanee 2011 was big time fun


I did say "some".
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Way too many models now have a MAJOR HURRICANE in the GOM with a front bearing down!!!!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Man, if GFS came true, that not be good for my family, My parents and brother and sister live in Tampa and Sarasota (where they keep their boat), and I am in Statesboro. No helping each other out with that.
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3572. MahFL
Quoting NASA101:
Joe Bastardi is now conceding that 97L may be a player in the Gulf... he changed his tune since the last few days! LOL


Good old Joe, he knows a bandwaggon when he see's it !
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Quoting MahFL:


Not a good year for some festival go'ers.

Also an observation...with all the smartphones around, why aren't people more prepared for storms ?
not all wanee 2011 was big time fun
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We had some unexpected thunderboomers come through last night...enjoyed the rain, but...

Lafayette Parish: Firefighters in the city and parish kept very busy last night as the intense storm passed through the area. They were dispatched to thirty incidents over a two hour period consisting of power lines down, tree branches burning, gas leaks, and two house fires. One house fire was in the city and the other in the parish.

Actually had gust over 70mph at our airport.
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3569. Thrawst
Quoting Abacosurf:
This is for Presslord....

Why Some Men Have Dogs And Not Wives:

1. The later you are, the more excited your dogs are to see you.

2. Dogs don't notice if you call them by another dog's name.

3. Dogs like it if you leave a lot of things on the floor.

4. A dog's parents never visit.

5. Dogs agree that you have to raise your voice to get your point across.

6. You never have to wait for a dog; they're ready to go 24 hours a day.

7. Dogs find you amusing when you're drunk..

8. Dogs like to go hunting and fishing.

9. A dog will not wake you up at night to ask, "If I died, would you get another dog?"

10. If a dog has babies, you can put an ad in the paper and give them away.

11. A dog will let you put a studded collar on it without calling you a pervert.

12. If a dog smells another dog on you, they don't get mad. They just think it's interesting.

13. Dogs like to ride in the back of a pickup truck

And last, but not least:

14. If a dog leaves, it won't take half of your stuff.


To test this theory: Lock your wife and your dog in the garage for an hour. Then open it and see who's happy to see you.


LOL.
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3567. MahFL
Quoting Cotillion:
anyone mention this yet?

"The death toll at the Pukkelpop music festival in Belgium, hit by a sudden violent storm, has now risen to five, say local officials.

Staging collapsed, giant screens fell, tents were flattened and trees were uprooted, all in the space of minutes after the storm struck.

Dozens more people were hurt, several seriously."

Link


Not a good year for some festival go'ers.

Also an observation...with all the smartphones around, why aren't people more prepared for storms ?
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3565. NASA101
Joe Bastardi is now conceding that 97L may be a player in the Gulf... he changed his tune since the last few days! LOL
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anyone mention this yet?

"The death toll at the Pukkelpop music festival in Belgium, hit by a sudden violent storm, has now risen to five, say local officials.

Staging collapsed, giant screens fell, tents were flattened and trees were uprooted, all in the space of minutes after the storm struck.

Dozens more people were hurt, several seriously."

Link
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3563. NASA101
98L looks spectacular for an Invest..unlike the crappy looking 97L....
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3561. ncstorm
Quoting Skyepony:


This was what I talking about yesterday, 1/2 expecting an invest or something rolling up off the Carolinas, blowing up on the gulfstream. Something for Newfoundland to watch. Not sure if the core is going to get warm enough..


the NOGAPS has been developing this area for several runs now
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3560. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Interesting..


This was what I talking about yesterday, 1/2 expecting an invest or something rolling up off the Carolinas, blowing up on the gulfstream. Something for Newfoundland to watch. Not sure if the core is going to get warm enough..
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...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS DEPRESSION JUST BELOW TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...
11:00 AM EDT Fri Aug 19
Location: 16.1°N 83.7°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23505
3557. Thrawst
Quoting NASA101:


All quadrants? It's only in two, north and south BUT more importantly the center (13.5N) is devoid of any convection and it is still ingesting dry air/dust so all i am saying is that yes it may develop but NOT as fast at the models!
Models have failed spectacularly with their cyclogenesis of Invests so far - remember what their forecast was for 92L and 93L - both were projected to be hurricanes north of PR but systems moved WEST and never really developed!


Invest 92L was basically sucked into Tropical Storm Gert. proximity kills yanno. :P
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11 AM out.. 30 mph still.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23505
3555. wpb
Quoting wolftribe2009:
ECMWF at 240 hours shows a Major Hurricane in the Central Gulf of Mexico

Link
what run 00z?
00z run?
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Complete Update

HH is going home.

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





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3553. MahFL
Troll:
"a troll is someone who posts inflammatory,[2] extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community, such as an online discussion forum, chat room, or blog, with the primary intent of provoking readers into an emotional response[3] or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion."

Or stuff that is obviously misleading or simply untrue, etc etc.
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3552. scott39
Quoting TampaSpin:


Front coming down as a Storm moves north.....seen that before in Port Charlotte, Fl........NO THAT AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN ....besides i live in the protected city of Tampa now.
Is the TCVN a good model track wise?
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Still a TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 83.7W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10839
3550. Thrawst
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Interesting..


another frontal situation hmmm....
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3549. NASA101
Quoting cloudburst2011:



zero convection are you looking at what im looking at...covection is firing in all quadrants ..lots of red...i disagree..


All quadrants? It's only in two, north and south BUT more importantly the center (13.5N) is devoid of any convection and it is still ingesting dry air/dust so all i am saying is that yes it may develop but NOT as fast at the models!
Models have failed spectacularly with their cyclogenesis of Invests so far - remember what their forecast was for 92L and 93L - both were projected to be hurricanes north of PR but systems moved WEST and never really developed!
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3548. CJ5
Quoting Relix:
97L won't amount to much I am beginning to think. Very similar case to Emily.


Interesting, please elaborate.
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3547. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
POSS T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/98L
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53286

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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