Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting nigel20:

I'm not sure?


There have been maybe one or two named systems that were literally named once they emerged from Africa. I can't recall which ones though.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


You have no idea! Lol. Rock to our left. Hard place to our right!


lol - do we die dry or wet?
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2294. liljade
Quoting EastTexJake:


Oooh! Not Good. I've got a Dr's appointment in League City, TX for that day.
Thats where I am now>
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Quoting angiest:


We've had at least one tropical storm form out there.


Check out the wave over Africa at 10E, even better organized than 98L
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


What would you give 98L at 2:00AM?
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


WOW! Is right. Have they ever made a storm that far away an invest before?
weve had a t.d that far before
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TVCN back on board with long term development of 97L this eve. Missing all the mountains of course.

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2289. will40
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


WOW! Is right. Have they ever made a storm that far away an invest before?




hey TX it looks like you have a biggggggggggggg shield up down there
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2288. Patrap
Thats the 1000 year Cane o Doometh
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Good morning? Aussie. Looks like they want to give us some rain that run. :)

A little.
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other thing you guys sould all way have with your supplies and if you are planing on rideing out the storm on the cost is a lifejacket you nevere no when you may need one if the water level evere comes too high and you have too get out of your house and on too a roof so this some in too think about all so you sould make sure your lifejacket is in good working oder and make sure there no holes or any thing i would all so test it out even no you may no how too swim and that it may be best to test it evere now and then this too make sure thing are in good oder with your lifejacket




some in too think about
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115252
2285. nigel20
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


WOW! Is right. Have they ever made a storm that far away an invest before?

I'm not sure.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8226
Quoting BahaHurican:
Well, I've learned to forgive the TX bloggers, as I think they're feeling pretty schizophrenic about the idea of a major storm [oh no!] bringing rain [oh yes!]....

lol


You have no idea! Lol. Rock to our left. Hard place to our right!
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2282. angiest
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


WOW! Is right. Have they ever made a storm that far away an invest before?


We've had at least one tropical storm form out there.
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2281. nigel20
Quoting Stormchaser2007:

Is that future 97L?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8226
Is 97 a threat for South Texas?
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2279. angiest
Almost a drought buster, but that would fall too fast to be much use:

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Quoting nigel20:

Wow!


WOW! Is right. Have they ever made a storm that far away an invest before?
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Quoting presslord:


Look @ the "S" in that thing!


Stands for Scary.
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Quoting Clearwater1:

Sorry, about that. Yes, you got clobbered in the early runs as well. Lol And yes, it' always good to be a direct target the early runs, because they never seem to hit the first spot the zone in on. No science here, but I have noticed that as well.
Well, I've learned to forgive the TX bloggers, as I think they're feeling pretty schizophrenic about the idea of a major storm [oh no!] bringing rain [oh yes!]....

lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22357
2275. nigel20

Wow!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8226
Food and Water Safety During Hurricanes, Power Outages, and Floods

What Consumers Need to Know

Link
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Quoting MississippiWx:
98L still acting like a beast. Could see an increase in the percentages later tonight:



Look @ the "S" in that thing!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


I predict a hurricane threat to the southeast US at the end of August next year too.


Guess I'd better buy some extra supplies, then.

*heads to Wal Mart*
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2271. angiest
Sizable windfield.

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Quoting xcool:
28th-31st. Hot and steamy. A hurricane threat for the Southeast.


http://www.farmersalmanac.com/long-range-weather- forecast/southeast-us/



28th-31st. Hot and steamy. A hurricane threat for the Southeast.

The Physic Twins, the View
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Quoting AussieStorm:
That hurricane is probably similar in size to 2010's Igor or 2004's Karl. Very impressive.
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2268. will40
Quoting liljade:
Could someone please give me the link to those runs?



Link
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Quoting AussieStorm:


Good morning? Aussie. Looks like they want to give us some rain that run. :)
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Quoting AussieStorm:


Oooh! Not Good. I've got a Dr's appointment in League City, TX for that day.
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98L still acting like a beast. Could see an increase in the percentages later tonight:

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
And that's another cyclone that will go without attaining hurricane status. I'm afraid that this won't continue however, as both 97L and 98L are likely to become the seasons first 'canes.


The trolls are gonna beg to differ. LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting KoritheMan:


That's easy to say when the models have been predicting it for eons.

Never did put much stock into the FA.


I predict a hurricane threat to the southeast US at the end of August next year too.
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting xcool:
28th-31st. Hot and steamy. A hurricane threat for the Southeast.


http://www.farmersalmanac.com/long-range-weather- forecast/southeast-us/


They are on top of it...it's also the best time to cut hair to retard growth and Sep 4-13 is the best time to potty train. I'm getting my little plastic potty ready now!
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Storm Archive
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
11:00 PM EDT Thu Aug 18
Location: 15.4°N 82.1°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
2258. liljade
Quoting tiggeriffic:


excuse me...i have been watching that one for DAYS!!! even commented that it is unusual for something that hadn't even developed to have that many consistant runs...i LIVE where those runs said it was going by the 28th...
Could someone please give me the link to those runs?
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And that's another cyclone that will go without attaining hurricane status. I'm afraid that this won't continue however, as both 97L and 98L are likely to become the seasons first 'canes.
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Quoting xcool:
28th-31st. Hot and steamy. A hurricane threat for the Southeast.


http://www.farmersalmanac.com/long-range-weather- forecast/southeast-us/


That's easy to say when the models have been predicting it for eons.

Never did put much stock into the FA.
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Tropical 13 wins again!
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
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2252. nigel20
Quoting P451:


When seeking out convection and the overall health of a system it is advised to avoid use of rainbow enhancement.



That gives a much better look at what is going on.

Rainbow does serve it's purpose in seeing the structure of a system differently but it is poor if you're using it to see convection as the color scale tricks you into seeing a monster that is not there.


OK, thanks
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8226
Quoting Levi32:
TD 8 looks like it's on course for a close scrape with the northern coast of Honduras. If its exact track keeps it several dozen miles offshore, then we may see additional strengthening. If the track is just over the coastline or inland, then the storm will likely remain very weak or dissipate. Regardless, extraordinary intensification is unlikely in any event, and this will mainly be a rainfall issue for Honduras and Belize.


why aren't there any watch or warning for Honduras if it is closer than Guatemala?
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:


JINX!!!


Lol, it happened twice.
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00z nam 84 hours out hmm a more northerly track
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNSET INDICATED
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE WAVE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA WAS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED WITH LOW CLOUDS MOVING
WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
HONDURAS. MICROWAVE DATA FROM THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS CONFIRM THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A RECENT 0134Z SSMIS
PASS EVEN HAS A WEAK RING FEATURE IN THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL.
SIGNIFICANT 24H PRESSURE FALLS OF 3 TO 4 MB HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED
AT BUOY 42057...WHICH HAVE LONG BEEN A HALLMARK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION. DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...IN
ADDITION TO THE ABOVE DATA...SUPPORT ADVISORIES BEING INITIATED ON
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A PEAK 1-MIN WIND OF 27 KT FROM THE BUOY
AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA SUGGEST AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF ABOUT 30 KT.

THE DEPRESSION DOES NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE
THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS.
ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN HOW CLOSE THE SYSTEM IS TO
LAND...IT IS ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE THE DEPRESSION MAY NOT STRENGTHEN
AT ALL AND WEAKEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF HONDURAS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GENERALLY STEER THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE GFDL FORECAST OF THE DEPRESSION MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BEING CONSIDERED AN UNLIKELY
SOLUTION. THE NHC FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF MODEL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 15.4N 82.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 15.5N 83.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 15.7N 84.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 20/1200Z 15.9N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 21/0000Z 16.2N 88.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 17.0N 93.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2246. Dennis8
Quoting Levi32:
TD 8 looks like it's on course for a close scrape with the northern coast of Honduras. If its exact track keeps it several dozen miles offshore, then we may see additional strengthening. If the track is just over the coastline or inland, then the storm will likely remain very weak or dissipate. Regardless, extraordinary intensification is unlikely in any event, and this will mainly be a rainfall issue for Honduras and Belize.


Thank you..That is a no brainer
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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