Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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2346. palmpt
Quoting dfwstormwatch:

ahh no1 suspected it would go toward new orleans at that time... or become a major hurricane


The models were trending towers la/ms, but they did not move this track to 5 Friday... They should moved this earlier to give folks time to evacuate.
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or will be going nuts
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114776
Quoting MississippiWx:
It's going to be this close for TD8 and land interaction...



I think its faked but cool none the less.
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this blog will go nuts
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114776
2342. liljade
Quoting will40:
thank you so much Will40 :)
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:

ahh no1 suspected it would go toward new orleans at that time... or become a major hurricane


Precisely why the long-range models are garbage. As I've been saying over the last several days, the most we can glean from these predictions is that there is a clear threat to the US in the long-range. Where, we do not know.
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img src="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/graphics/AT18/17.AL1805W. GIF"> and rita wasnt predicted very well at all
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http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at19646.asp


dora 1964 formed in just about same area dont no enough to explain -but from what ia reading looks like ridge formed and pushed it to west
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WIth a model showing a DOOMCANE late next week should someone alert the DOOM:CON advisory board that they may need to increase the threat level. At the very least we need them to be extra vigilant!!
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


WOW! Is right. Have they ever made a storm that far away an invest before?
Had a couple go to TD, TS in that area over the years... Hurricane Bertha 2008 was tagged as an AOI [though not as an invest] before it even came offshore.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21585
It's going to be this close for TD8 and land interaction...

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
i think there could be all so a lot of flash fooding with it being so dry all so a lot a blowing dust
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2334. ackee
Quoting 7544:
98l looks like a td already might be the real deal and beat 97lto be named
agree really think 98L TD already
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Sorry - not sold on 97L developing yet. LOTS of dry air around it and need to start firing convection or the low pressure area will start to weaken.

But we shall see - with the models almost unanimously developing it, hard to go against them.
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.
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Quoting redwagon:


lol - do we die dry or wet?

Which would you prefer?
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2330. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.W.
08L/TD/XX
mark
16.33N/81.86W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Yes, I'm aware that it is a consensus model, that's canes 101 07, lol, sheesh.

JK.

However, an official track is never to far from it, if not on top of it. However, this far out it's nada, just like the others. NAO is still in the low range of postive, I'll lean the westward route if we see it go more positive the next few days.


someone call my name?
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2328. liljade
Quoting AussieStorm:

A little.
We could really use the rain here in Tx. but that might be going a little too far.LOL
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2327. ackee
Good night see we have Td#8 but guess all eyes is on 97L I have notice the model are trending a liitle south and west with the future track even the bams strangely turn system WSW between cuba and jam see CMC , GFS and ECMWF GOING BIT SOUTH this would be the worst possible track so MANY of the GREATER ANTILLES would take a pounding from this can u imgaine if this enter the GULF hope this will Disscipate
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


TVCN is just a consensus of the models. It seemed to have a glitch last cycle.



Yes, I'm aware that it is a consensus model, that's canes 101 07, lol, sheesh.

JK.

However, an official track is never to far from it, if not on top of it. This far out it's nada, just like the others. NAO is still in the low range of postive, I'll lean the westward route if we see it go more positive the next few days.
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ahh no1 suspected it would go toward new orleans at that time... or become a major hurricane
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Quoting redwagon:


lol - do we die dry or wet?


Lol. Bout sums it up. :)
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2323. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
INV/XX/97L
MARK
13.93N/45.27W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
2322. angiest
Quoting cccidojr1:
I know its very far out in time...but what would make the GFS change its track all the way from FLA's east coast to Texas ?? I just saw the latest Model and I dont like what I see since I'm in Corpus Christi..


GFS and the GFS ensemble (the ensemble members are runs of the GFS using different parameters) have shown a large area of the US from Texas up to the Carolinas where there is a potential weakness in the ridges. The operational GFS, the one producing the images we are showing, placed the weakness over SE Texas this time, with the Texas ridge retreating out west as consistently forecast, and the A/B high holding on through the SE US, on this particular run.
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2321. will40
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Hiya Will! Yep I think it got stuck in over drive. Will you please take it back to NC now? Lol.


been hot and dry here also so we sharin lol
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Quoting Thunderpig75:


They are on top of it...it's also the best time to cut hair to retard growth and Sep 4-13 is the best time to potty train. I'm getting my little plastic potty ready now!


Been having all kinds of hell potty training my 3 yr old son. He just absolutely refused to put on underwear. So 4 days ago I threatened to wash him down with the water hose (which he normally loves playing under the hose)if he pooped his diaper again. I really didn't think it would have any effect on him if I did it, and I guess he didn't believe me when I said I would do it. Long story short after removing his next dirty diaper and hosing him off, he immediately decided to start wearing his big boy panties. Now we have a hard time getting him to wear a diaper for bed time. So I think I've discovered a new way to potty train your child. Although I don't believe we'll see the method in any parenting magazines.
Sorry for the off topic.
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Quoting cccidojr1:
I know its very far out in time...but what would make the GFS change its track all the way from FLA's east coast to Texas ?? I just saw the latest Model and I dont like what I see since I'm in Corpus Christi..


It was seeing a weaker trough, which allowed it to bend westward. But don't worry, it'll just change again. We DO NOT know which portion of the US mainland, if any, will be hit.
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pa·tron·ize (Verb)
1. Treat with an apparent kindness that betrays a feeling of superiority.
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let's remember ...
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller? prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cy cle=08%2F18%2F2011+18UTC&rname=SPAGHETTI+CHARTS&pn ame=500_540_582_ht&pdesc=&model=GEFS-SPAG&area=WNA TL&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=West ern+North+Atlantic+-+Southeast+US+Central+America+ Caribbean&prevArea=WNATL&currKey=model&returnToMod el=&imageSize=M



None of this is set in stone. Spaghetti plots look like a shotgun spread on the SE US.
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2316. nigel20
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Thanks Angie, Nigel, and DFW. Amazing that far away.

You are most welcome.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7881
2315. 7544
98l looks like a td already might be the real deal and beat 97lto be named
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Quoting will40:




hey TX it looks like you have a biggggggggggggg shield up down there


Hiya Will! Yep I think it got stuck in over drive. Will you please take it back to NC now? Lol.
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Here is a nice link, enjoy.
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2312. GetReal
Quoting cccidojr1:
I know its very far out in time...but what would make the GFS change its track all the way from FLA's east coast to Texas ?? I just saw the latest Model and I dont like what I see since I'm in Corpus Christi..


High pressure ridging west, blocking earlier move towards the north. there is no need to worry, just yet. These models are in no way written in stone this far out.
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2311. Patrap
Quoting thelmores:


SUPERDOOPERCANESWOOPER! LOL


almost missed ya thel,

..your gonna need a Bigger Pen I think
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Quoting duajones78413:
Is 97 a threat for South Texas?


Yes, in the same way any invest so far away is a threat. It could hit anywhere from Mexico to Maine.

I guess "potential threat" might be a better phrase, as it isn't actively threatening anywhere but the Antilles.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Watches or warnings for the Cape Verde Islands are possible.
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2308. angiest
Quoting Patrap:
Thats the 1000 year Cane o Doometh


And at least the second time GFS has shown it (size, not location).
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Good info Taz, never thought about a life jacket. The simplest things, right? lol.







your welcome it all so could be uesfull if there is any major inland flooding and you needed too leve your home
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114776
Looking at the imagery nigel just posted, it's a good thing this didn't have another 24 hours unimpeded... like I said earlier to roatangardener, I sure hope it's mainly beneficial rains [apparently it's been very dry there] and very little of the destructive winds for them tomorrow...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21585
Thanks Angie, Nigel, and DFW. Amazing that far away.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
TVCN back on board with long term development of 97L this eve. Missing all the mountains of course.



TVCN is just a consensus of the models. It seemed to have a glitch last cycle.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
I know its very far out in time...but what would make the GFS change its track all the way from FLA's east coast to Texas ?? I just saw the latest Model and I dont like what I see since I'm in Corpus Christi..
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2302. Patrap
Im gonna go sleep tonight early and the next 3.

Cuz some may be leaving N in da futcha'.

Plus Im missing the Daily Show,

Nighters all.

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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
TVCN back on board with long term development of 97L this eve. Missing all the mountains of course.



Looks like the model spread has increased today.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


There have been maybe one or two named systems that were literally named once they emerged from Africa. I can't recall which ones though.


Tropical Storm Christine.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
other thing you guys sould all way have with your supplies and if you are planing on rideing out the storm on the cost is a lifejacket you nevere no when you may need one if the water level evere comes too high and you have too get out of your house and on too a roof so this some in too think about all so you sould make sure your lifejacket is in good working oder and make sure there no holes or any thing i would all so test it out even no you may no how too swim and that it may be best to test it evere now and then this too make sure thing are in good oder with your lifejacket




some in too think about


Good info Taz, never thought about a life jacket. The simplest things, right? lol.
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Quoting Patrap:
Thats the 1000 year Cane o Doometh


SUPERDOOPERCANESWOOPER! LOL
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Quoting nigel20:

Wow!
I'd give it a 50%-60% chance right now. The GFS and ECMWF both have it as a tropical cyclone on their 48 hour frames, respectively, and telling by its convective organization and well-defined low pressure area, it definitely stands a good chance of becoming a depression within the next two days.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting nigel20:

I'm not sure?


There have been maybe one or two named systems that were literally named once they emerged from Africa. I can't recall which ones though.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.