Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting geepy86:

I believe it's been lowered to 4.9
With the impending DOOM to come.


I'd raise the DOOMCON to at least a 3. As soon as that thing crosses 50, DOOMCON 2.
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Quoting geepy86:

I believe it's been lowered to 4.9
With the impending DOOM to come.


..you mean raised.
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Quoting AllStar17:








I like your graphics in google earth. How do you make them, or get them?
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Wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see TD9 tomorrow from 98L.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
2364. tropicfreak 3:30 AM GMT on August 19, 2011 +0
Quoting ackee:
agree really think 98L TD already

It has already been declared a TD.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 99 Comments: 4895



98L HAS NOT BEEN DECLARED AT THE MOMENT ONLY A POSS T.C.F.A. AT THIS TIME


I know!!! I already responded to a kazillion comments already, doesn't need to be repeated when they already have been acknowledged.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Here is a nice link, enjoy.


Awesome link, thanks
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2390. Seawall
Quoting Patrap:
Im gonna go sleep tonight early and the next 3.

Cuz some may be leaving N in da futcha'.

Plus Im missing the Daily Show,

Nighters all.



I have no clue as to what you just said....
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2389. air360
00z GFS starting to come in now....*waits anxiously*
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Quoting Patrap:

Never seen ESL pubilsh so fast on a invest in 6years




NICE
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2387. ackee
Quoting BahaHurican:
That southerly bend has been in the track almost since the beginning. Just earlier tracks were taking the storm further north first, so the bend was taking the storm across the Keys instead of across Cuba. Looking at the way the high is modulating that bend isn't all that freaky... the big thing is going to be 1) how strong is 97L going to be when it gets to the SE Bahamas and 2) how far north will it be allowed to progress by the high before it builds west. It's still what, 7 days out, that bend? So there's still a fair amount of room for change there.

I'm noting little to no change in the 3-5 day tracks over the NE Antilles, though.
thanks for your feed back this is the first system so far this seasons that has so much model support
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Current Wind here in Sydney.


Current rainfall.


And I'm getting pounded right now.


There are lots of people in Texas that wish they were getting pounded!
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2384. angiest
Quoting KoritheMan:


I've never once taken my eye off a potential threat to the Gulf Coast, although I was a bit surprised at how far west the 18z was.


That was my point. ;) Earlier in the day, the GFS ensembles were hinting that the high over Texas may back off enough to give an opportunity for the storm to come further west, *if* the A/B high builds in far enough.

Obviously, still too far to know just where anything that actually develops will go, but the risk areas are being highlighted for us.
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After digging very deep into the GFS, I think we have a truncation issue. It almost completely loses the southern extent of troughing in the Mississippi valley (see: 500 mb ht and vort) at the time of truncation. Not saying texas wont get this one, but it won't happen the way the GFS suggests imo.
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Good evening everyone!! I see we have TD #8!!
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 57 Comments: 572
2381. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2364. tropicfreak 3:30 AM GMT on August 19, 2011 +0
Quoting ackee:
agree really think 98L TD already

It has already been declared a TD.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 99 Comments: 4895



98L HAS NOT BEEN DECLARED AT THE MOMENT ONLY A POSS T.C.F.A. AT THIS TIME
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54473
Quoting Tazmanian:



98L is not a TD


Sorry taz getting 93L and 98L mixed up lol.

But 98L certainly looks very close to attaining TD status
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Lol. Bout sums it up. :)


There is another possibility. So we're in the bullseye of a Cat 2-3 ten days out... major league rain and wind that knocks over dead trees, bringing down power lines, washing all the topsoil to the sea from Austin or even Waco. Not to mention the oil rigs.

There's this water vapor loop counterclockwise with the periphery winds around our ridge. I've been watching it for 7 days, remember the big storm that soaked N TX last weekend and stopped dead cold about 30m N of Waco. 08's moisture is about to enter this shear zone/wheel once it landfalls.

With the ridge moving back NW starting Monday, this water wheel will likely pick up enough moisture to give everybody inland a couple inches of rain to moisten up the soil so less runoff and possibly send dead trees leaning so they can be dispatched before the doom storm sets upon us in ten days.

Yeah, it's a miracle solution but it could happen.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Had a couple go to TD, TS in that area over the years... Hurricane Bertha 2008 was tagged as an AOI [though not as an invest] before it even came offshore.


Interesting. Thanks Baha. Like learning something new. She was right before I found this blog after Eduoard in 2008.
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It's interesting to look at the RAMSDIS visible loop of TD8. Click and look at the low clouds south of the main cloud mass. Watch how they are slowly moving east, then seem to stop. That is the result of them fighting against the easterly trade winds and pushing against one another. As a result, you can see a few thunderstorms pop up down there because the air has nowhere to go but up. Here's the link...

Link
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
I suspect that on the next GFS run, 00z, 97 will track once again toward the gulf, but on a more northerly course. I based this on the NAM's, 00z, run ending on hour 84, and now being located north of PR.

The I've notice that both models have been similar in their projections. If my theory holds true, then at exactly the same time, the gfs will have 97 north of PR as well. That is if I have calibrated my flux capacitor correctly.

And just notice the 00z has started it's run.
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AL, 97, 2011081900, , BEST, 0, 136N, 414W


Time for bed, lol. The convention associated with 97L is a couple hundred miles west of the LLC, lol. That's what you get for not looking at the coords. Here I thought it was getting better organized this evening.

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2374. angiest
Quoting wxhatt:
If this verifies, Texas will bust the drought.



Baaaad way to overcome though...


It may only deliver half the necessary rain, actually. ;) But *that* will put out the rain too fast and will have an increased inland flood threat. It may help some of the reservoirs though.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


He said 98L...


Oops getting 93L and 98L mixed up. My bad, so out of it lol.
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2372. Skyepony (Mod)
Fresh ASCAT of 08L
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Quoting tropicfreak:


It has already been declared a TD.



98L is not a TD
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2370. 7544
Quoting tropicfreak:


It has already been declared a TD.


not that was 93l lol
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Quoting angiest:


Yes, and some had previously been ignoring a threat to the west, and then GFS showed that possibility.


I've never once taken my eye off a potential threat to the Gulf Coast, although I was a bit surprised at how far west the 18z was.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


It has already been declared a TD.


He said 98L...
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting wxhatt:
If this verifies, Texas will bust the drought.



Baaaad way to overcome though...


Not to be a killjoy, but wouldn't they just... reenter the drought if La Nina redevelops during the winter?
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2366. angiest
Quoting KoritheMan:


Precisely why the long-range models are garbage. As I've been saying over the last several days, the most we can glean from these predictions is that there is a clear threat to the US in the long-range. Where, we do not know.


Yes, and some had previously been ignoring a threat to the west, and then GFS showed that possibility.
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Quoting ackee:
Good night see we have Td#8 but guess all eyes is on 97L I have notice the model are trending a liitle south and west with the future track even the bams strangely turn system WSW between cuba and jam see CMC , GFS and ECMWF GOING BIT SOUTH this would be the worst possible track so MANY of the GREATER ANTILLES would take a pounding from this can u imgaine if this enter the GULF hope this will Dissipate
That southerly bend has been in the track almost since the beginning. Just earlier tracks were taking the storm further north first, so the bend was taking the storm across the Keys instead of across Cuba. Looking at the way the high is modulating that bend isn't all that freaky... the big thing is going to be 1) how strong is 97L going to be when it gets to the SE Bahamas and 2) how far north will it be allowed to progress by the high before it builds west. It's still what, 7 days out, that bend? So there's still a fair amount of room for change there.

I'm noting little to no change in the 3-5 day tracks over the NE Antilles, though.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
Quoting ackee:
agree really think 98L TD already


It has already been declared a TD.
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Been losing a lot of sleep due to the tropics. Waiting for the 00z runs on the GFS has made me a night owl here of late. My wife keeps asking what am i looking at on the computer so late at night. I tell her the weather baby, go back to sleep. Some reason I don't think she believes me :)
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2362. wxhatt
If this verifies, Texas will bust the drought.



Baaaad way to overcome though...
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Why did the squirrel cross the road? He needed a shave.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2360. j2008
Quoting geepy86:

I believe it's been lowered to 4.9
With the impending DOOM to come.

Its actually only at 3.3 thanks to TD 8. If 97 or 98 forms then we shall raise it. LOL
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2359. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
XX/INV/98L
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54473
2358. will40
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Ok. Fair enough. :) Looks like one of us may need it again. GFS could be east coast again this run. It's doing its windshield wiper impression again. :)


yep until and If it develops it will be all over the place
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Quoting ElConando:


Damn I just noticed that...


LOL...That's the funniest part!
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting MississippiWx:


I tell myself that too because I feel so bad for him since he has no tail. :-(


Damn I just noticed that...
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sheesh this is smaller then the windfield the 18z gfs had hitting texas...
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Quoting LillyMyrrh:


The strangest memory of Rita I have is that while we were riding the storm out at the shelter in Colmesneil, my son (who was 17 at the time) decided that it would be a good idea to go outside of the high school gym we were in, hold on to one of the poles along the walkway, and let the wind literally lift him off the ground. I wanted to kill that kid when I finally got him to come back inside.
Whats that comedian say about WHAT the wind is blowing Being the most important thing:) I stuck my head out from behind the wall we were hiding behind trying to watch a tornado take down the circus tents & go thru the carnival. I still have the stuffed animal that hit me in the face. Boy they pack a wallop at that speed. Later that day while helping clean up, I was standing in a puddle of water during a lightening strike, holding onto a metal tailgate on a truck, got quite a tingle. Oh, did I mention the Trailer from the dealiest snake exhibit flipped over & turned most of them loose. Muskogee OK. Mid 1980s, Italian Festivale I think. Oh to be young & indestructable again:)
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Current Wind here in Sydney.


Current rainfall.


And I'm getting pounded right now.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


someone call my name?
LOL, I saw canes and I thought I was in the post too.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2351. geepy86
Quoting DookiePBC:
WIth a model showing a DOOMCANE late next week should someone alert the DOOM:CON advisory board that they may need to increase the threat level. At the very least we need them to be extra vigilant!!

I believe it's been lowered to 4.9
With the impending DOOM to come.
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Quoting ElConando:


I think its faked but cool none the less.


I tell myself that too because I feel so bad for him since he has no tail. :-(
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting will40:


been hot and dry here also so we sharin lol


Ok. Fair enough. :) Looks like one of us may need it again. GFS could be east coast again this run. It's doing its windshield wiper impression again. :)
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2348. ackee
97L could track similar to Hurricane GERORGES in 1998
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2347. will40
Quoting liljade:
thank you so much Will40 :)



no prob anytime lil
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2346. palmpt
Quoting dfwstormwatch:

ahh no1 suspected it would go toward new orleans at that time... or become a major hurricane


The models were trending towers la/ms, but they did not move this track to 5 Friday... They should moved this earlier to give folks time to evacuate.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.