Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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2446. geepy86
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


..you mean raised.
-+

Opps, my bad
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2445. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
WARFIGHTER GFS 156 HRS OUT
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2444. wxhatt
Quoting ackee:
I hope the whole blog will stay up and watch the GFS OZ Run for 97L that should be intreting its like watching a horrow movie that has so much twist to it


and just think, if we are freaked out by models, when no storm has even formed. What will this blog do when we get a major out there with a cone of uncertainty pointed at the CONUS?
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2443. angiest
So far, 0Z shows 98L *much* further southwest and 18Z did, and 97L is an insignificant amount further south (less than the size of the 'L'.)
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Quoting KoritheMan:


No, because if DOOMCON is intended to be a clever parody of the well-known DEFCON alert, lower is actually more dangerous.


The beauty of DOOM:CON is no one knows how the scale works so everytime it raises/lowers you must panic/relax because you don't know if it is worse/better.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


In about 10 minutes.


PLEASE post it
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Quoting 12george1:

According to that intensity prediction graph, it appears that we could end up having 9 named storms and not 1 hurricane!




97L is forcast to be come a hurricane
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
My internet keeps going off. NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!! Not now! Lol. I need my model fix! :D
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Interesting that GFS and Nogaps both showing development of a wave coming after 98l in the long range - don't think I've seen that yet this year.
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Quoting yesterway:

According to that intensity prediction graph, it appears that we could end up having 9 named storms and not 1 hurricane!
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97L is going too be fun too track
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
2435. ackee
Quoting tramp96:

What time will it come out? central time
not sure but the GFS oz runs has start now so u can check
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Quoting EricSFL:


Might even become a threat to the Cape Verde Islands as it heads in their general direction.


Yep...a tropical cyclone hitting them is obviously rare as well.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting tramp96:

What time will it come out? central time


In about 10 minutes.
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2432. angiest
+30 hours on the 18Z:



And compare +24 hours on the 0Z:



In both cases, 98L seems to develop a little faster, and 97L is either not developing yet or just starting to.
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Quoting tramp96:

What time will it come out? central time


It'll be out at or before midnight.
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2429. scott39
Quoting KoritheMan:


Give it until it nears the Antilles at least.
Have the long range models been around 50/50 in reference to both areas,since they have started running?
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2428. EricSFL
Quoting MississippiWx:
It's not every day that we get to see an African wave look like this when it's this far east. Just goes to show what an upward MJO pulse and moisture-rich air can do...



Might even become a threat to the Cape Verde Islands as it heads in their general direction.
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2426. tramp96
Quoting ackee:
I hope the whole blog will stay up and watch the GFS OZ Run for 97L that should be intreting its like watching a horrow movie that has so much twist to it

What time will it come out? central time
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Quoting MississippiWx:
It's not every day that we get to see an African wave look like this when it's this far east. Just goes to show what an upward MJO pulse and moisture-rich air can do...




thats for sure
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
Quoting ElConando:


Damn I just noticed that...
??? he still has his tail--it's straight out behind him-not up in the air like the start of his highway crossing. on topic-i sure hope they don't get anything major near galveston. my inlaws are near there-dad's on oxygen with his emphysema-can't be without power too long!
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Thanks Keep, didn't know you spoke Orleanese.
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It's not every day that we get to see an African wave look like this when it's this far east. Just goes to show what an upward MJO pulse and moisture-rich air can do...

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2421. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
the official storm board


2011 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
98L.INVEST
97L.INVEST
08L.EIGHT

East Pacific
07E.GREG

Central Pacific
06E.FERNANDA

West Pacific
95W.INVEST

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
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Quoting angiest:


But with the reversed sense, going from DOOMCON 5 to 4 could be considered raising it, since it is a higher level of DOOM. ;)


True. ;)
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2419. ackee
I wondering if AUG is so busy what will happen next month when we are at the peak of the seasons ? I hope we will see a lot of fish storm
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I can't believe we are debating doomcon vocabulary.... lol

Think I'll go "take a nap"... maybe I'll catch the 5 a.m., which should be interesting.... since 98L will have gone through Dmax and 08L will be in the pink of it...

Duerme bien!
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
Quoting Seawall:


I have no clue as to what you just said....


Need to get Taz to decipher that.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
dos it seem too me that TD 8 is heading NW?


No.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Give it until it nears the Antilles at least.


Even then, track shifts will likely occur, as they do with pretty much every storm. However, we should see the spread decrease a little during that time.
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2414. angiest
Quoting yesterway:


Completely believable intensity forecasts, given GFS and Euro don't ever do much with that system. It develops and moves north, but never looks strong and is lost fairly quickly.
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dos it seem too me that TD 8 is heading NW?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
2412. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Seawall:


I have no clue as to what you just said....
he is going to bed early tonight and the next three in a row cause some of the family may have to prep and head north as some may have to get ready for the show

and them there be good advice
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Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Good evening everyone!! I see we have TD #8!!


Good evening xt. Yep td #8. Possible Harvey? Not sure.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Precisely why the long-range models are garbage. As I've been saying over the last several days, the most we can glean from these predictions is that there is a clear threat to the US in the long-range. Where, we do not know.

Calling long range forecasts garbage is inaccurate. In my experience if the long range forecast shows you are going to get a direct hit, you have nothing to worry about. If you are not in the 'line of fire', worry. They are highly predictive.
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2408. ackee
I hope the whole blog will stay up and watch the GFS OZ Run for 97L that should be intreting its like watching a horrow movie that has so much twist to it
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Would suggest that the circulation is further east over the strongest convective activity.



that would give TD 8 a little more time would it not?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
Quoting j2008:

Its actually only at 3.3 thanks to TD 8. If 97 or 98 forms then we shall raise it. LOL


you mean lower it.
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2405. angiest
Quoting KoritheMan:


No, because if DOOMCON is intended to be a clever parody of the well-known DEFCON alert, lower is actually more dangerous.


But with the reversed sense, going from DOOMCON 5 to 4 could be considered raising it, since it is a higher level of DOOM. ;)
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look how much graphic have evolved this was t.s allison advisory # 2
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Quoting tropicfreak:


It has already been declared a TD.

Do we really have TD9 or were you referring to 93l and not 98l?
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Quoting scott39:
Hello Kori, I was suprised also. How many days until there is not such a big swing from Texas, all the way up the Eastern seaboard?


Give it until it nears the Antilles at least.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see TD9 tomorrow from 98L.
I agree. As soon as satellite estimates start coming in, I wouldn't be the least surprised to be in the T1.5-T2.5 range.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


..you mean raised.


No, because if DOOMCON is intended to be a clever parody of the well-known DEFCON alert, lower is actually more dangerous.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Fresh ASCAT of 08L
Would suggest that the circulation is further east over the strongest convective activity.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2398. scott39
Quoting KoritheMan:


I've never once taken my eye off a potential threat to the Gulf Coast, although I was a bit surprised at how far west the 18z was.
Hello Kori, I was suprised also. How many days until there is not such a big swing from Texas, all the way up the Eastern seaboard?
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2397. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting geepy86:

I believe it's been lowered to 4.9
With the impending DOOM to come.


I'd raise the DOOMCON to at least a 3. As soon as that thing crosses 50, DOOMCON 2.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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