Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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If anyone missed what Joe B said earlier on the Barometer Bob Show earlier tonight, Rebroadcasting right now. Tune in here
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A good deal further south by 75 hours. Still decently weaker.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


UGH! This movie is SLOW! Lol ;)


Good morning,

Are you near the coast line in Texas?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2493. angiest
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
FWIW, the 00z appears to be further south and weaker.

We'll see how it plays out.


Yes, the two runs are beginning to diverge on the 22nd.
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000
WTNT63 KNHC 190406
TCUAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1200 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

AT 1200 AM EDT...0400 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER TO THE HONDURAS-GUATEMALA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:
MissWX- both Bob and Rain said it was a great show- had to miss it cause I was at work- but I'll listen to it this weekend. glad ya'll were able to help make it such a great evening!


It was...you need to watch it. A lot of great questions and a lot of great answers. Bob does a wonderful job organizing his show.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


UGH! This movie is SLOW! Lol ;)
And a double feature!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1200 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

AT 1200 AM EDT...0400 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER TO THE HONDURAS-GUATEMALA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2488. aquak9
MissWX- both Bob and Rain said it was a great show- had to miss it cause I was at work- but I'll listen to it this weekend. glad ya'll were able to help make it such a great evening!
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2487. angiest
At 60 hours, crossing the islands, more or less in the middle of them:

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2486. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting scott39:
What strength are the GFS and Euro putting 97L on the last run? TIA
does not matter now who really knows but i do know if it gets to the gulf over that rocket fuel well where ever it goes best move outta the way something wicked comes this way
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Quoting PlyWoodNative2011:


Your question about ''tripoles'' was so insanely random, anyhow, whatever, LOL.

Yeah i think you threw Bob a curve on that one but Levi as always knocked it out of the park! I don't know about John i think he looked a little bewildered or maybe he was just relieved that Levi fielded that question.LOL
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FWIW, the 00z appears to be further south and weaker.

We'll see how it plays out.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
Quoting PlyWoodNative2011:


Your question about ''tripoles'' was so insanely random, anyhow, whatever, LOL.


Not really. We were talking about the future of the Atlantic season and the Atlantic tri-pole plays a huge part in the activity of the Atlantic basin.
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2480. aquak9
Barometer Bob and Rainman are STILL talking...those two could go on all might long...gonna hafta tell'm to hush it up a bit so I can get some sleep!
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


WOW! Is right. Have they ever made a storm that far away an invest before?


If I'm not mistaken I seem to remember a tropical storm named before even exiting the African coast.
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2477. scott39
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
just sit tight wait watch see everyone on here will be informed when somethings coming every landmass ship plane will know when its coming where it is and a good idea maybe where its going we got about another 72 hrs to go before we may even have anything from 97
What strength are the GFS and Euro putting 97L on the last run? TIA
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Well that narrows it down.


Lol..It's not as broad as it sounds because he is really keying in on Florida, but he said the pattern could change and support an idea either side of Florida.
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Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Hey here ya go just click refresh and as new frames become available it will update!!!Link


Thank yoU!
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Quoting angiest:


The first trough (through the first 42 hours) looks weaker on this run than 18Z.


UGH! This movie is SLOW! Lol ;)
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Look out Lesser Antilles that could be a TD knocking on your door!!
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Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Ok thanks, o BTW heard you get in some pretty good questions!!!


Yeah, I did. I also got very good answers back...We had some great information being spit out on the show tonight.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Bastardi is thinking a FL hit, although he is not ruling out the Central Gulf or anywhere along the SE coastline.


Well that narrows it down.
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
2468. geepy86
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


It is what it is...:/

He He !
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Quoting Tazmanian:




97L is forcast to be come a hurricane


dog·mat·ic (dôg-mtk, dg-)
adj.
1. Characterized by an authoritative, arrogant assertion of unproved or unprovable principles

Long range tropical cyclone predictions whether in terms of track or intensity are no place for dogmatic conjecture.
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2466. msphar
97L climbed one tenth of a degree in the prior 12 hours. At that rate it should be up to about 14 degrees North Latitude by the time it reaches the island chain. That would bring it in between ST Lucia and Martinique. I think that was very close to where Emily entered the Caribbean.
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2465. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting oceanblues32:
what did i just see engulfing florida on the gfs computer model and going right up the coast like the twins predicted it is like 7 to 8 days away should we prepare for something i am in the ft lauderdale area
just sit tight wait watch see everyone on here will be informed when somethings coming every landmass ship plane will know when its coming where it is and a good idea maybe where its going we got about another 72 hrs to go before we may even have anything from 97
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Quoting Aggie93:
Hi there. I don't think I've posted since Ike, but I read just about everything y'all post. I especially enjoy all the squabbles!

I can really relate to the comment made earlier about Texans having a touch of schizophrenia right now. I grew up 70 miles SE of Lubbock in a tiny place called Fluvanna. It has a blinking red light and about 100 people on Christmas Day.

It's a farming community without farming this year. 2010 was the most productive year in forever. 2011 is the exact opposite. Our relatives have had to sell their cattle. They keep water tanks at the ready in their front yards to battle the next grassfire wherever it pops up.

They've made the national news, but Hollywood has yet to host a telethon in their support.

They are praying for a hurricane.

I live in Houston. The drainage ditch that runs beside my house is filled with dead grass. It looks like a fire has come through here. I, too, am praying for rain, but am not sure I have the courage to pray for a hurricane.

All that being said, next weekend is the Opening Weekend of Dove Season. If a storm could wait one more week, I'd be okay with that. With a hurricane, we face several days with two kids and no AC, possibly in 100 + heat.

Without a hurricane next weekend, we face a heart-breaking trip to The Motherland for Opening Weekend. a place that was so fertile last summer, and is so barren now.

I'm not sure which is worse.


The doves will be cooked before you get them home!
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting MississippiWx:


Bastardi is thinking a FL hit, although he is not ruling out the Central Gulf or anywhere along the SE coastline.
Ok thanks, o BTW heard you get in some pretty good questions!!!
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2461. ackee
Quoting wxhatt:


and just think, if we are freaked out by models, when no storm has even formed. What will this blog do when we get a major out there with a cone of uncertainty pointed at the CONUS?
we will all have sleepless night lol
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2460. angiest
Quoting ackee:
BOTH SYSTEM seem well SOUTH so far may be a hint devlopment wont be as quick as frist thought what a movie the GFS keep putting on


97L doesn't looks much further south than it did earlier.
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Quoting geepy86:
-+

Opps, my bad


It is what it is...:/
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Hey here ya go just click refresh and as new frames become available it will update!!!Link


Bastardi is thinking a FL hit, although he is not ruling out the Central Gulf or anywhere along the SE coastline.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2456. angiest
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
UP to 45hrs here.Link





The first trough (through the first 42 hours) looks weaker on this run than 18Z.
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2455. ackee
Quoting angiest:
So far, 0Z shows 98L *much* further southwest and 18Z did, and 97L is an insignificant amount further south (less than the size of the 'L'.)
BOTH SYSTEM seem well SOUTH so far may be a hint devlopment wont be as quick as frist thought what a movie the GFS keep putting on
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2454. Aggie93
Hi there. I don't think I've posted since Ike, but I read just about everything y'all post. I especially enjoy all the squabbles!

I can really relate to the comment made earlier about Texans having a touch of schizophrenia right now. I grew up 70 miles SE of Lubbock in a tiny place called Fluvanna. It has a blinking red light and about 100 people on Christmas Day.

It's a farming community without farming this year. 2010 was the most productive year in forever. 2011 is the exact opposite. Our relatives have had to sell their cattle. They keep water tanks at the ready in their front yards to battle the next grassfire wherever it pops up.

They've made the national news, but Hollywood has yet to host a telethon in their support.

They are praying for a hurricane.

I live in Houston. The drainage ditch that runs beside my house is filled with dead grass. It looks like a fire has come through here. I, too, am praying for rain, but am not sure I have the courage to pray for a hurricane.

All that being said, next weekend is the Opening Weekend of Dove Season. If a storm could wait one more week, I'd be okay with that. With a hurricane, we face several days with two kids and no AC, possibly in 100 + heat.

Without a hurricane next weekend, we face a heart-breaking trip to The Motherland for Opening Weekend. a place that was so fertile last summer, and is so barren now.

I'm not sure which is worse.
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Quoting YouCaneDoIt:


PLEASE post it
Hey here ya go just click refresh and as new frames become available it will update!!!Link
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2452. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting angiest:


That's still 18Z, correct?
YEAH JUST UNCLASSFIED
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2451. scott39
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I agree. As soon as satellite estimates start coming in, I wouldn't be the least surprised to be in the T1.5-T2.5 range.
What strength hurricane are the models showing on 97L, at the end of both most recent runs of the GFS and EURO? TIA
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what did i just see engulfing florida on the gfs computer model and going right up the coast like the twins predicted it is like 7 to 8 days away should we prepare for something i am in the ft lauderdale area
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UP to 45hrs here.Link



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2448. angiest
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
WARFIGHTER GFS 156 HRS OUT


That's still 18Z, correct?
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Wonder where Levi is tonight, thought he did great on the Barometer Bob show?? Although i didnt catch Joe Bastardi's comments, where does he think 97L is going?
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2446. geepy86
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


..you mean raised.
-+

Opps, my bad
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.