Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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Stalls it for a while. Hmm?
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Well I thought I would stop by. I stated a week ago that I thought 93L would be making it into the carribean and it did. Two Days ago I stated that I thought it would go north of Honduras and Nicaragua which it now is. Now I am thinking the storm looks like it is moving more WNW than W

The "Irene" feature is the storm that has had me worried for a while now since it came off Africa. I live an hour from Panama City in Georgia and the GFS was showing the storm hitting near there and causing a lot of severe weather here. I remember Ivan 2004 and Bob 2003 which both caused twisters here.
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129 strengthening again and headed for Jamaica...

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2541. ackee
PLEASE look at the CMC run and THE GEM now the OZ GFS they may be seeing a pattern change track is similar and futher south the longer 97L takes to devlop I am going with this track more south IF its ramp up MORE NOERTHLY track
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Get to sleep, Bob has gone to bed, Show rebroadcast is on now.


Aussie don't forget the ITUNES podcast. I missed the show but will listen tomorrow on ITUNES. Bob has many of his shows archived. Enjoy your comments all the time Aussie.
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2539. wxhatt
Quoting scott39:
Looks like a bowling team is over in Africa.


Yeah, and we are the pins!
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Quoting angiest:
Taz must not be here, or one of his alarms might be going off atm.




i got a life of my own thank you vary march some time i lurk and not post i this watch the commmts
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115257
120 hours out here we go
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2536. OneDay
Aggie - good to see your handle.

From our NWS discussion:

Climate...
updated the drought statement (dgthgx) this evening. Rainfall deficits running between 20 and 25 inches since last October. High temperatures today were 104 at iah and 105 at cll. This is the 18th consecutive day of 100 degree heat and the 29th day of the Summer with the temperature at or above 100 degrees for the city of Houston. Did you know that Houston has had 40 days this Summer with the temperature at or above 99 degrees? This ties 1980 with 40 days at or above 99 degrees. Also the 18 100 degree days in August ties the most 100 degree days in a month (july 1980). Did you know that Houston has had 21 mornings with low temperatures at or above 80 degrees in 2011? This ties for the third most (1963) in city history. Only 1962 (26) and 1964 (25) had more.
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Hispaniola is really screwing up the vortex on the GFS. Pretty weak system so far.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15923
2533. angiest
Taz must not be here, or one of his alarms might be going off atm.
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If it stays south of hispanola it will get stronger and probably hit the northern gom, not texas on this run
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2529. scott39
Quoting wxhatt:
The pattern is loaded, with 97, 98, and another low coming off Africa. Wow.

Looks like a bowling team is over in Africa.
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Very odd 850 vort lobe swings around Hispaniola and devastates the circulation.

Not buying this run so far.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15923
Well south of Hispaniola so far...

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2526. scott39
The one thing that is shaping with more runs....Alot of somebodies are getting a hurricane somewhere.
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102 hours out
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Quoting PlyWoodNative2011:
BTW, JB said tonight that he FULLY expects 97L to hit either the Southeast coast or Florida, and I believe him, too, sorry about t that, GOM, folks.


We ain't worried. There's plenty to go around for all this season. lol
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Quoting newbee:
Is there anyway to change your handle?


Don't change, it's PERFECT for you!
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
but ,IF any single models 's run is unreliable so far in the ATL,why EVERYONE is expecting every single run all night long ??
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2520. wxhatt
The pattern is loaded, with 97, 98, and another low coming off Africa. Wow.

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2519. angiest
Well it looks like Allan Huffman's site just went south.
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Lol...This is interesting to see. Almost a straight line with all of our tropical systems (apologies WU for the storm2k signature):

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
New wave from Africa looks already like a TS...


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Might stay south of Hispaniola completely this run...

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15923
2514. newbee
Is there anyway to change your handle?
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2513. angiest
Quoting wxhatt:


98L not doing much.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yeah. On the Louisiana border more or less. Are you from Texas?


No ma'am. Florida native here :-)
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96..approaching Hispaniola and a little stronger:

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting yesterway:


Good morning,

Are you near the coast line in Texas?


Yeah. On the Louisiana border more or less. Are you from Texas?
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2509. wxhatt
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Quoting Clearwater1:

He's is really going out on a limb.


Lol...Are you being sarcastic?

He really emphasized Florida.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2507. ackee
THE CMC oz and 12OZ was futher south too so far run see similar to me
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200 miles ahead of 97L

Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting angiest:


Watch it, we'll go to Brownsville this time. ;)
Certainly wouldn't be surprising, lol. 06z will probably have it affecting North Carolina.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2504. newbee
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Ok thanks, o BTW heard you get in some pretty good questions!!!



It appears the 500mb weakness is the same the was in 2004 that gave us the track of IVAN.

Only the track of 97L appears to be through the Cuba and not around it. So if we do have a hurricane in the Gulf, Hopefully it will not be a Cat 2 or higher storm.
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78 hours out nothing like the nam
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Bastardi is thinking a FL hit, although he is not ruling out the Central Gulf or anywhere along the SE coastline.

He's is really going out on a limb.
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2501. angiest
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
A lot weaker than the 18z run, and naturally on a more westward track. Looking a lot like the 12z ECMWF so far.


Watch it, we'll go to Brownsville this time. ;)
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Quoting aquak9:
Barometer Bob and Rainman are STILL talking...those two could go on all might long...gonna hafta tell'm to hush it up a bit so I can get some sleep!

Get to sleep, Bob has gone to bed, Show rebroadcast is on now.
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87 hours...moving WNW and a good deal farther south:

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2498. scott39
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
does not matter now who really knows but i do know if it gets to the gulf over that rocket fuel well where ever it goes best move outta the way some wicked comes this way
I know we cant say what its going to be now in 8-10. I wanted to learn how to read the strength of a TC on a model map.
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A lot weaker than the 18z run, and naturally on a more westward track. Looking a lot like the 12z ECMWF so far, albeit further south.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
If anyone missed what Joe B said earlier on the Barometer Bob Show earlier tonight, Rebroadcasting right now. Tune in here
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.