Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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We are all crazy! We are here tonite commenting about where a storm might go nearly 6 days out.....
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Quoting scottsvb:
You guys are laughable looking at models after 3-4 days out


You don't have to participate. It's good natured fun.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
northen gom it is on the gfs hour 250....... almost identicle to katrina
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Mississippi and Kori, you're gonna love this, lol:





LOL

Well the models have plenty of time to change.
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2592. Dennis8
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Not Texas. That should make some people happy. Lol.


Yes mam..but that changes every run on a storm that does not exist...YET
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 446
You guys are laughable looking at models after 3-4 days out
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all most where Iavn made land fall lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454

264 hours out
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Not Texas. That should make some people happy. Lol.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Mississippi and Kori, you're gonna love this, lol:







holy we cows
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
2585. angiest
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Mississippi and Kori, you're gonna love this, lol:



Stronger but smaller than 18Z it appears.
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2584. will40
its gonna find a weakness in the central US
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2583. lennit
with that shortwave it gonna have a charley or wilma type track
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Dry air and SAL doing a good job...

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2581. 7544
ms bound ouch
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250..headed north toward the Central Gulf:

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Mississippi and Kori, you're gonna love this, lol:



Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2578. Dennis8
Quoting dfwstormwatch:

174 hours out ike like scenario


What a night Ike was! 11" rain in 6 hours, 100 mph winds for 3-4 hours and I was 3 miles north downtown Houston in my townhome.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 446
Quoting MississippiWx:
It was almost in the exact same spot on the 18z run...

174 of 18z:




insignificant. the pattern on 00z is much different then 18z. 18z had much stronger azores high with more bridging of that high with the high over the rockies. This run should shift north and might be in more line with the gfs runs before 18z today
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2575. angiest
And like any good thriller, we get a commercial break right when it gets interesting. Stuck at 180 hours right now.
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Headed NW and strengthening at 186:

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2573. Dennis8
It was almost in the exact same spot on the 18z run...

174 of 18z:



Texas is Hurricane ready!
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 446

174 hours out ike like scenario
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Gonna start curving northward IMO. Weakness over the eastern Plains.



Interesting point....
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dangourus set up this run trough over upper miss valley= n gulf hit this run imo
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It was almost in the exact same spot on the 18z run...

174 of 18z:

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Gonna start curving northward IMO. Weakness over the eastern Plains.




that shows the classic setup of a storm hitting the north east gom coast with a high by bermuda a high over the rockies and a trough over the great lakes. anywhere from panhandle to louisiana on this run. definitely not texas
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
00z gonna be a repeat of the 18z run. 156 hours:

You may need a shower curtain on this run
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A little troffie north of mississippi gonna play a role???
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Gonna start curving northward IMO. Weakness east of the plains.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2563. angiest
This may be the crazy run that makes 18Z believable. ;)
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oh the models !!! this time Bastardi is right!!
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Waited for a trough looks like.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
156 hours out
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Disorganized system.

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2557. ackee
WHAT would cause 97L move stright west like that dont see any strong HIGH on the GFS run is this a DEAN stright west track guess we see jamica economy is in very bad shape THEY could not deal with a storm hopes it disscipate
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2556. angiest
GFS looks to be continuing its journey through HURDAT. Several instances of Donna have showed up, we had the 1900 storm, not it looks like 97L is taking a parallel track to Gilbert, just a tad to the north. Not following the intensity however.
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00z gonna be a repeat of the 18z run. 156 hours:

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194






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BAM MODELS
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Headed WNW and strengthening again at 150:

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting scottsvb:



Obvious... every shouldnt look at anything past 72hrs right now cause it matters on how fast this develops in the near term. A weaker system entering the carribean will move more W-WNW..a stronger system will move WNW till day 5


Maybe the GFS is picking up on the wind sheer problem Dr Masters mentioned earlier today.
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Looks like the models might wanna keep it in the Caribbean.....that wouldn't be good.
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138 hours out this is confusing heading for Jamima and weakening?
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2548. angiest
The troughs on this run look substantially weaker.
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Quoting ackee:
PLEASE look at the CMC run and THE GEM now the OZ GFS they may be seeing a pattern change track is similar and futher south the longer 97L takes to devlop I am going with this track more south IF its ramp up MORE NOERTHLY track



Obvious... every shouldnt look at anything past 72hrs right now cause it matters on how fast this develops in the near term. A weaker system entering the carribean will move more W-WNW..a stronger system will move WNW till day 5
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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