Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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2646. HCW
Quoting MississippiWx:


The oil should have been dispersed for a while now.

Oil is everywhere and still washing up and just yesterday there was a major slick coming from the rig that is supposedly closed stretching 10 miles. A major cane in the GOM will cause major problems for the ecosystem cause there is still lots of oil on the floor of the GOM.
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2644. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting HimacaneBrees:


The oil is gone.


Yes, we are talking about 97L.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2641. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting Tazmanian:
what time is are next recon
8z (4a.m EDT). Don't arrive into the system until 12z though.

Quoting weatherman12345:
when does 0z ecmwf start running?
In about an hour and a few minutes.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2639. angiest
Quoting HimacaneBrees:



ok just so I can keep up with the blog. Is this the model runs for 97? Sorry I've been in and out and I don't want to read back through pages of the blog. Just wanting to keep up with which one everyone is talking about. Thanks


97L is the only storm of significance on GFS, until possibly the very end of the run. 98L doesn't do much, and it doesn't really see TD08.
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Heck, it gets hot and steamy after everyone hurricane that hit here..got smart after Katrina (yes I live in Mobile but we had damage too) and bought a window a/c unit that can be run off of our generator..at least the bedroom can be cool..
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Does anyone know where to get the JAM model run that Joe Bastardi spoke about on Bob's show?
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Quoting MississippiWx:


The oil should have been dispersed for a while now.


The oil is gone.
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We have spent maybe, more than 90% of the season, analyzing Invests...
Good, no Hurricanes yet.... 98L will probably be the first one...

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Be back shortly, my friends, I need to finalize some packing up cause I move back into my university, first thing tomorrow morning, yup, back into my residence hall, LOL. I do graduate in December, though, that's the good thing, LOL. BRb, ^_^.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
250..headed north toward the Central Gulf:




ok just so I can keep up with the blog. Is this the model runs for 97? Sorry I've been in and out and I don't want to read back through pages of the blog. Just wanting to keep up with which one everyone is talking about. Thanks
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Quoting AllyBama:
...well, I guess ife we get a storm in the GOM, we might find out what happened to all of that oil that leaked out..:(


The oil should have been dispersed for a while now.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2630. angiest
Quoting air360:


And then a run or two of a fish, then of NC, then of Texas, and so on...lol


Actually, I don't think we have ever had a run of 97L as a fish...
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Nite all..........The Bucs got their butts beat and these models are beating me up too..........i am black and blue and very bruised tonite.........good nite everyone!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That would be horrible. Major hurricane just tore through, you're stuck with no power, and temperatures are 90˚F.

(I have to issue a warning with this post, just in case someone gets scared, lol): Obviously thing will change, and the chances that 97L follows exactly what the GFS depicts and this point is extremely unlikely. Point is, the synoptic pattern favors that the southeastern U.S get hit, and that's what we should focus on, rather that pin pointing an exact location.


I feel ya on the temp and power issue...
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...well, I guess ife we get a storm in the GOM, we might find out what happened to all of that oil that leaked out..:(
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2626. angiest
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That would be horrible. Major hurricane just tore through, you're stuck with no power, and temperatures are 90˚F.

(I have to issue a warning with this post, just in case someone gets scared, lol): Obviously thing will change, and the chances that 97L follows exactly what the GFS depicts and this point is extremely unlikely. Point is, the synoptic pattern favors that the southeastern U.S get hit, and that's what we should focus on, rather that pin pointing an exact location.


I've been putting that disclaimer up a lot too. ;)

The 18Z run did the same thing, bringing strong ridging back over southeast Texas 3 days after the storm.
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alright now wait a hour or less and see what percentages nhc has invest 97l and invest 98l and see if t.d 8 is t.s Harvey ( which is extremely unlikely) and then maybe wait for the 4 am advisory ( probably not)
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2623. Levi32
Quoting MississippiWx:


We are probably going to see it shift between the Central Gulf and Florida several more times.


That is very possible. However, it is interesting that the GFS has exhibited such a slow, "controlled" trend south and westward over the last several runs. It may not be as wild of a flopping as we are used to seeing from this model. Perhaps it is on to something, but we will see.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26682
Not buying this run highly unlikely that track almost westwaed I think it will be north of Hipaniola and a Fl landfall...Time will.tel ther is highly uncertany with the streanht as always in 24 hrs w should know where is heading.
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Quoting Levi32:
The 0z GFS makes a lot more sense than the 18z, turning the cyclone directly northward in the gulf, into the waiting weakness between the ridge over the rockies and the Atlantic ridge. This type of path should be what we see, regardless of the exact track.

I agree Levi the GFS and ECMWF 500 MB Heights Ensemble Means clearly show that weakness in the central or eastern GOMEX!!
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Quoting PlyWoodNative2011:



SCOREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE, look at that, not even a passing cloud is seen over Texas on this run, GOOD, I'm glad to see that it made landfall there as oppose to Texas. Although, ideally, it needs to shift further to the east. But hey, it's a start, way to go, GFS, next stop, the ECM, let's see what that shows, ^_^. Sorry, Texans, cry me a river, ROFL, =). GOOD STUFF!


K! HIM feels all better now. :D
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2618. air360
Quoting MississippiWx:


We are probably going to see it shift between the Central Gulf and Florida several more times.


And then a run or two of a fish, then of NC, then of Texas, and so on...lol
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Quoting angiest:
And there comes the heat again, as the ridge builds back after the storm passes:

That would be horrible. Major hurricane just tore through, you're stuck with no power, and temperatures are 90F .

(I have to issue a warning with this post, just in case someone gets scared, lol): Obviously things will change, and the chances that 97L follows exactly what the GFS depicts at this point are extremely unlikely. Point is, the synoptic pattern favors that the southeastern U.S get hit, and that's what we should focus on, rather that pin pointing an exact location.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
That run showed a hit at about Biloxi on the anniversary of K.
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Quoting Levi32:
The 0z GFS makes a lot more sense than the 18z, turning the cyclone directly northward in the gulf, into the waiting weakness between the ridge over the rockies and the Atlantic ridge. This type of path should be what we see, regardless of the exact track. It also makes sense that the storm should avoid Texas, despite the desperate need for rain there. The Texas ridge would have to retreat a lot farther west than the Rockies to allow a storm to infiltrate that state.


We are probably going to see it shift between the Central Gulf and Florida several more times.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
also at the end of the run anther 1000 mb system tracking towards the US
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Quoting scottsvb:
You guys are laughable looking at models after 3-4 days out


LOL.....ya your correct.......but, aren't you and i doing the same thing if we are here on the blog......HOnestly.....LOL I just posted nearly the same right after you did.
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Quoting angiest:


With that run we likely wind up in an area of subsidence. ;P


Lol. Familiar ground. Where else would we be? ;-)
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2610. 7544
thats it for this run stay tuned for 28 more to go and something might be knocking at anyones door
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2609. ackee
I am going to bed another chapter of the GFS horrow movie on 97L every part of the NORTH carrb and the USA seem to be in GFS cone of DOME be back morning bye
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2608. Levi32
The 0z GFS makes a lot more sense than the 18z, turning the cyclone directly northward in the gulf, into the waiting weakness between the ridge over the rockies and the Atlantic ridge. This type of path should be what we see, regardless of the exact track. It also makes sense that the storm should avoid Texas, despite the desperate need for rain there. The Texas ridge would have to retreat a lot farther west than the Rockies to allow a storm to infiltrate that state.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26682
eeney, meeney, miney, mo...I'm out!

I just drew straws and have eliminated
AL from the mix..TX, LA, MS or FL
can have 97L - lol

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While this monster has no Dry air in it...

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2603. Dennis8
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I know but apparently "those people" were upsetting some on the blog. Lol. Hope he feels all better now. :)


:>)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 446
Could be some long nights ahead for me if the system enters the Gulf.

One thing is for sure, though: I will try and capture footage of anything that might come this way (laymen, don't read too deep into that -- things WILL change, and we still have no idea where 97L will go).
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2601. angiest
And there comes the heat again, as the ridge builds back after the storm passes:

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Quoting Dennis8:


Yes mam..but that changes every run on a storm that does not exist...YET


I know but apparently "those people" were upsetting some on the blog. Lol. Hope he feels all better now. :)
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Not Texas. That should make some people happy. Lol.
if only it would head west after hitting Alabama so it would be a t.s and give Texas a good soaking
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2597. angiest
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Not Texas. That should make some people happy. Lol.


With that run we likely wind up in an area of subsidence. ;P
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We are all crazy! We are here tonite commenting about where a storm might go nearly 6 days out.....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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