Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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2696. Gearsts
Quoting Levi32:


Well it wouldn't be very hard to hit PR harder than Emily did lol. I would say the same to your friend...prepare for a tropical storm, because at worst that is what PR is likely to get if the storm passes nearby, which it likely will.
Not my friend, it was Joe's
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.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011/

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NORTH TEXAS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
DEVELOPING CU FIELD TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE REGION. SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
EAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM TO
NONE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE HOT
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...AIR IS VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S WITH RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT. THIS HAS KEPT
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN CHECK THUS FAR. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
INCREASE A BIT THROUGH TOMORROW AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOUTHWEST SURFACE TO 850MB FLOW THROUGH MIDDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM UP A FEW DEGREES OVER TODAYS HIGHS. WHILE DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH HIGHS IN THE
105 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE...EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES TO BE RIGHT
AROUND 105 DEGREES FOR MANY LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A RESULT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED NEARLY OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
RETREATING BACK TO THE WEST BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD
MEAN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WE
WILL STILL BE RIGHT AROUND 100 DEGREES. MORE IMPORTANTLY THOUGH IS
THAT WE GET BACK INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY...FLOW AT 500MB INCREASES TO 25KTS WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES RIDING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE TO THE WEST. A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SOME RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. OF CONCERN ALSO NEXT WEEK TO MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN US WILL BE A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND ITS
TRACK. LATEST GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
AS EXPECTED BUT BOTH THE GFS AND LATEST ECMWF SHOW A POTENTIAL
TRACK INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.


DUNN
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2694. Levi32
Quoting weatherman12345:
what r u expecting from the 0z ecmwf... something like the gfs?


Maybe. The ECMWF for the last 3 days has flopped to completely different solutions between its 0z and 12z runs. We will see if tonight finally shows something consistent with the 12z, or yet another shift.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
2693. Levi32
Quoting Gearsts:
Levy you still think that 97L will affect PR and DR? Or something similar to Emely where it stays south and weak? Joe bastardi said that 97L will affect PR stronger than Emely and then move WNW and hit FL. He even said that he had a friend here in PR and he told him to prepair for a TS by monday. lol


Well it wouldn't be very hard to hit PR harder than Emily did lol. I would say the same to your friend...prepare for a tropical storm, because at worst that is what PR is likely to get if the storm passes nearby, which it likely will.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
2692. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Levi32:


All of it is a bad setup. No matter what, the pattern favors 97L hitting the southeast United States if it becomes a storm. If this develops I will be very concerned, because regardless of what the models show now with the fine details of the track, somebody in the U.S. is going to get hit by this feature if it develops, and probably someone in the Caribbean will get whacked along the way too. Whether the areas that get wacked are Hispaniola and Florida, or Cuba and the gulf coast, it's hard to say until we see development. The overall message here is what people should be focusing on, and the threat is clear, so folks should be keeping an eye out and making sure they are prepared.
true my friend and when the time comes listen to your vast networks of Volunteer local state federal information systems for all final warnings and advice as this event draws near
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


You're welcome! :)


mail...
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Quoting MississippiWx:
If the 850mb vort is really as far south as the CIMSS maps show, TD8 is pretty disorganized. It's fairly stacked with the 700mb and 500mb vorts as well. The vorts should be NE of Honduras according to satellite:



850 vort:

Lower-level cloud motions suggest the circulation is well north-northeast of where CIMSS has the vort max. Interesting, but probably unreliable on CIMSS' part.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
If the 850mb vort is really as far south as the CIMSS maps show, TD8 is pretty disorganized. It's fairly stacked with the 700mb and 500mb vorts as well. The vorts should be NE of Honduras according to satellite:



850 vort:

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2688. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting HCW:


I don't think that a cane is going to help the severe oil problem that still exist. It would bring oil into rivers ,bays and places that you can't imagine seeing oil. Just last week we had a huge oil mat right off our beach here in Southern AL so there is still tons of oil still out there . I have been diving and it's laughable when somebody claims the oil is gone or it's dispersed when you don't have to look hard to find it :( Now back to 97L


Lol...Well, I haven't exactly researched it much. Cut me some slack...
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2686. Gearsts
Quoting Levi32:


0z GFS
Levy you still think that 97L will affect PR and DR? Or something similar to Emely where it stays south and weak? Joe said that 97L will affect PR stronger than Emely and then move WNW and hit FL. He even said that he had a friend here in PR and he told him to prepair for a TS by monday. lol
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Quoting AllyBama:


guess we will find out for sure won't we?
Tell the people that live and play along
the gulf beaches that..they may disagree
with you..just sayin...


Not trying to argue with you or anyone. But I do live on the Gulf Coast. I even work in the Gulf of Mexico. I do play there. I spend a lot of time in Venice La. I love to duck hunt, fish, and play at the beach (mostly Gulf Shores and Destin). I do not ever want anything to happen like that again. I lost a good friend when the Horizon exploded. But I'm telling you oil seeps out from the ocean floor and has been forever, even before this disaster. But I've not seen any oil out here for quite a while now.
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2684. Levi32
Quoting cat6band:
Thx Levi...I know it's thousands of miles away...but what are your thoughts with the flip foppin?? That's a really bad set-up there.....


All of it is a bad setup. No matter what, the pattern favors 97L hitting the southeast United States if it becomes a storm. If this develops I will be very concerned, because regardless of what the models show now with the fine details of the track, somebody in the U.S. is going to get hit by this feature if it develops, and probably someone in the Caribbean will get whacked along the way too. Whether the areas that get wacked are Hispaniola and Florida, or Cuba and the gulf coast, it's hard to say until we see development. The overall message here is what people should be focusing on, and the threat is clear, so folks should be keeping an eye out and making sure they are prepared.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Still impressive:

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2681. HCW
Quoting MississippiWx:


A hurricane with a wild sea could help disperse the oil more.


I don't think that a cane is going to help the severe oil problem that still exist. It would bring oil into rivers ,bays and places that you can't imagine seeing oil. Just last week we had a huge oil mat right off our beach here in Southern AL so there is still tons of oil still out there . I have been diving and it's laughable when somebody claims the oil is gone or it's dispersed when you don't have to look hard to find it :( Now back to 97L
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Quoting cat6band:
Thanks AtHome!! :)


You're welcome! :)
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Cyclonic curvature associated with 98L is more vigorous than 08L's. Additionally, the system has great convergence/divergence. Definitely looking at a percentage increase on the 2a.m TWO. I'm gonna go with something like 50%-60%. Quote me and crow me if I'm wrong lol.



I'll eat that crow with you. Lol.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Thx Levi...I know it's thousands of miles away...but what are your thoughts with the flip foppin?? That's a really bad set-up there.....
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Link :)


got mail...
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2674. Levi32
Quoting cat6band:
Levi...can you post the link that you guys were talking about earlier...I just got on... had thought the GFS had 97l going up the east coast...now I'm hearing some talk about the GOM?? Just trying to catch up...thanks!!


0z GFS
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Cyclonic curvature associated with 98L is more vigorous than 08L's. Additionally, the system has great convergence/divergence. Definitely looking at a percentage increase on the 2a.m TWO. I'm gonna go with something like 50%-60%. Quote me and crow me if I'm wrong lol.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
It was in the Mobile news today that BP is investigating a new oil sheen..here is the
link..

Link
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2671. Dennis8
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Very nice graphic..thank you
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 446
Quoting weatherman12345:
lol, idk...... i did it a year ago but im pretty sure you do it just like a normal pic, you just have to find a moving avatar:)........ btw ur videos r great

Thank you!!! I appreciate all the support from the blog group!!
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Thanks AtHome!! :)
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Levi...can you post the link that you guys were talking about earlier...I just got on... had thought the GFS had 97l going up the east coast...now I'm hearing some talk about the GOM?? Just trying to catch up...thanks!!
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Dust storm envelops Phoenix, downs power lines
APAP – 39 mins ago

PHOENIX (AP) — A giant wall of dust rolled through the Phoenix area on Thursday for the third time since early July — turning the sky brown, creating dangerous driving conditions and delaying some airline flights.

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2665. Dennis8
Quoting dfwstormwatch:

am i the only one that thinks t.d 8 has drifted n/nw?


Definite more northward component the last few images....and convection expanding in spiral banding. Belize on target though.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 446
Quoting cat6band:
Can someone post the link for the GFS?? Please and Thank you!!


Link :)
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Quoting angiest:


Looking forward to seeing JJ Watt put Brees on his back Saturday. ;)


I hear ya. we'll see LOL. I'm ready to see LSU open (Oregon) Duck season September 3rd. Sorry Now I'll try to stay on topic LOL
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Quoting weatherman12345:
k thanks
This may sound dumb but how do you add the moving avatar pic. Thanks
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:

am i the only one that thinks t.d 8 has drifted n/nw?
You can get that illusion with the convection expanding towards the north. System still appears to be on a 280˚-ish track to me.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2660. HCW
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I saw I think it was in Louisiana of a fish kill, not sure if its a result of the oil or red tide.

That was from a chemical spill and not the oil spill. I find it laughable that people on here are saying the oil is gone when it isn't. I guess that BP really brainwashed some of ya'll
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2657. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Can someone post the link for the GFS?? Please and Thank you!!
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am i the only one that thinks t.d 8 has drifted n/nw?
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Quoting HCW:

Oil is everywhere and still washing up and just yesterday there was a major slick coming from the rig that is supposedly closed stretching 10+ miles. A major cane in the GOM will cause major problems for the ecosystem


Dude what oil are you talking about? I have a camp in Venice La. I was there the past 2 weekends, no oil. I work in the Gulf, on the rig ATM and no oil. Haven't seen any oil in quite a long time. just sayin.
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Quoting HCW:

Oil is everywhere and still washing up and just yesterday there was a major slick coming from the rig that is supposedly closed stretching 10 miles. A major cane in the GOM will cause major problems for the ecosystem cause there is still lots of oil on the floor of the GOM.


A hurricane with a wild sea could help disperse the oil more.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2652. angiest
All right, must get some sleep. Turning it over to the graveyard shift.
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Quoting HCW:

Oil is everywhere and still washing up and just yesterday there was a major slick coming from the rig that is supposedly closed stretching 10+ miles. A major cane in the GOM will cause major problems for the ecosystem
I saw I think it was in Louisiana of a fish kill, not sure if its a result of the oil or red tide.
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Quoting HimacaneBrees:


The oil is gone.


guess we will find out for sure won't we?
Tell the people that live and play along
the gulf beaches that..they may disagree
with you..just sayin...
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Quoting angiest:


97L is the only storm of significance on GFS, until possibly the very end of the run. 98L doesn't do much, and it doesn't really see TD08.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Yes, we are talking about 97L.


Thank you Thank you
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2648. angiest
Quoting HimacaneBrees:


Looking forward to seeing JJ Watt put Brees on his back Saturday. ;)
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2647. Gearsts
We still need a develop system before saying that it will go towards the gulf or Florida.
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2646. HCW
Quoting MississippiWx:


The oil should have been dispersed for a while now.

Oil is everywhere and still washing up and just yesterday there was a major slick coming from the rig that is supposedly closed stretching 10 miles. A major cane in the GOM will cause major problems for the ecosystem cause there is still lots of oil on the floor of the GOM.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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