Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
nope 98 at 40


Keep, what center fix do you have on 97L
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2744. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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2743. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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well night all ill be back by 12z to see what 97 98 and probably by then t.s harvey have in store later today
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2741. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
nope 98 at 40
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30% 97L.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Night.


(YAWN) Waiting on the latest TWO then its off to bed for me too!!!LOL (Cant wait to start "DREAMCASTING")
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200 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INITIATED ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHT...MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
HONDURAS.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1125 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONDUCIVE AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES ON
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 20 MPH.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ABOUT 325 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE LOW IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

Member Since: July 31, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 891
000
ABNT20 KNHC 190544
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INITIATED ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHT...MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
HONDURAS.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1125 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONDUCIVE AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES ON
SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 20 MPH.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ABOUT 325 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE LOW IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

Crow me, lol.
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000
WTNT33 KNHC 190543
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
HONDURAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 82.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM NNE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE
NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS THIS MORNING...AND
APPROACH SOUTHERN BELIZE ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST
OF HONDURAS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND ON THE COAST OF GUATEMALA ON
SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND
BELIZE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
HONDURAS...



SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 82.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM NNE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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2734. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
98 l may go to 60 percent
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Quoting Levi32:
Alright I'm out. See you guys tomorrow.
Night.

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2732. Levi32
Alright I'm out. See you guys tomorrow.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26698
2731. Levi32
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Hey Levi check out this link which shows the HPC surface analysis in comparison to the GFS and Ensembles out to day 7.....you may have already been there if so disregard!!!


I actually had not seen that before. Thanks!
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26698
Quoting Levi32:


By 192 it has already pulled it up sharply east of Florida, which is perhaps an overly-aggressive recurve. It goes on to brush Cape Hatteras.

Oh wow, seems like the type of troughing you'd find in October, rather than August.
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you can see the cmc model loop for 0z and 12z and nogaps/gfs models at Link
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Quoting Levi32:


By 192 it has already pulled it up sharply east of Florida, which is perhaps an overly-aggressive recurve. It goes on to brush Cape Hatteras.



That would mean that it basically went straight north from Jamaica to NC...seems odd.
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Hey Levi check out this link which shows the HPC surface analysis in comparison to the GFS and Ensembles out to day 7.....you may have already been there if so disregard!!!
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2725. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
POSS T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/98L
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2724. Levi32
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If you're able to post the 240 hour frame (when it comes out) I'll appreciate it. TIA.


By 192 it has already pulled it up sharply east of Florida, which is perhaps an overly-aggressive recurve. It goes on to brush Cape Hatteras.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26698

cmc model 180 hours out
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Quoting Levi32:


All of it is a bad setup. No matter what, the pattern favors 97L hitting the southeast United States if it becomes a storm. If this develops I will be very concerned, because regardless of what the models show now with the fine details of the track, somebody in the U.S. is going to get hit by this feature if it develops, and probably someone in the Caribbean will get whacked along the way too. Whether the areas that get wacked are Hispaniola and Florida, or Cuba and the gulf coast, it's hard to say until we see development. The overall message here is what people should be focusing on, and the threat is clear, so folks should be keeping an eye out and making sure they are prepared.
Well, I guess I would have to watch this system then... the models is screaming Hurricane Hugo's track, but I doubt 97L will be as strong as Hugo. I still won't let my guard down because Gulf Stream is extremely warm this late in year. I sure hope a waterspout that hit Carolina Beach isn't omen (yes, it did turned into tornado)... that was odd that waterspout travelled west into the land from Atlantic.
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I don't think I can stay awake long enough for the Euro...lol.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting Levi32:
0z CMC has 97L as a storm south of Cuba in 6 days:

If you're able to post the 240 hour frame (when it comes out) I'll appreciate it. TIA.
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Quoting xtremeweathertracker:

Yes, our very own Levi Cowan!!


Cool!
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Quoting MississippiWx:


We are probably going to see it shift between the Central Gulf and Florida several more times.


Yes, I agree. 06z may have it running up the FL W coast, the 12z back out in the gulf. But one thing for sure, we are eventually going to run out of models for 97l, meaning it will verify one way or the other. Of course it has to first form.
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Quoting PensacolaNative:
Was that Levi32 on the BB Video?

Yes, our very own Levi Cowan!!
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2716. Gearsts
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Link
Thank You
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Was that Levi32 on the BB Video?
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2714. gugi182
GO AWAY 97L

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Quoting Gearsts:
Levy is there a video of the show?
Link
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2712. gugi182
Do you get hurricanes in ALASKA

Quoting xtremeweathertracker:

He told Joe to go check out Levi's Tropical Tidbits, and told him he would email him the link to Levi's blog. Joe thought it was cool and interesting that Levi lives in Alaska but is a tropical weather guru!!!
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2711. Gearsts
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:

He told Joe to go check out Levi's Tropical Tidbits, and told him he would email him the link to Levi's blog. Joe thought it was cool and interesting that Levi lives in Alaska but is a tropical weather guru!!!
Oh thats so cool :( i want see it.
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2710. gugi182
I'm getting kind of worried Go away 97L go play with the Fish go see if you could find Emily

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/a t201197_model.gif
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2709. Gearsts
Quoting Levi32:


Well thank you. I really appreciated that from Bob.
Levy is there a video of the show?
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Quoting Gearsts:
What did he said? I miss all of it :(

He told Joe to go check out Levi's Tropical Tidbits, and told him he would email him the link to Levi's blog. Joe thought it was cool and interesting that Levi lives in Alaska but is a tropical weather guru!!!
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2707. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.W.
08L/TD/XX
mark
16.36N/81.78W
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2706. gugi182
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2705. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.W.
08L/TD/XX
mark
16.36N/81.78W
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2704. Levi32
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:

I heard Bob putting in a plug for ya with JB, hey you never know you might work with Joe someday at WeatherBell!!!LOL Good job BTW!! You sounded professional and knowledgeable as always!!


Well thank you. I really appreciated that from Bob.
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2703. Gearsts
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:

I heard Bob putting in a plug for ya with JB, hey you never know you might work with Joe someday at WeatherBell!!!LOL Good job BTW!! You sounded professional and knowledgeable as always!!
What did he said? I miss all of it :(
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2702. gugi182
We are monitoring very closely Invest 97L down here in Puerto Rico. Up to know everything is okay. let's see what Friday brings and as it gets close to where the warm waters are i hope it doesn't goes threw a RAPID INTENSIFICATION hmmmm!!!!!!!!!!!
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2701. Levi32
0z CMC has 97L as a storm south of Cuba in 6 days:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26698






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2699. gugi182
I just want to know if Invest 97 is going to hit my house in Puerto Rico
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Quoting Levi32:


Well it wouldn't be very hard to hit PR harder than Emily did lol. I would say the same to your friend...prepare for a tropical storm, because at worst that is what PR is likely to get if the storm passes nearby, which it likely will.

I heard Bob putting in a plug for ya with JB, hey you never know you might work with Joe someday at WeatherBell!!!LOL Good job BTW!! You sounded professional and knowledgeable as always!!
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2697. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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2696. Gearsts
Quoting Levi32:


Well it wouldn't be very hard to hit PR harder than Emily did lol. I would say the same to your friend...prepare for a tropical storm, because at worst that is what PR is likely to get if the storm passes nearby, which it likely will.
Not my friend, it was Joe's
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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