Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting reedzone:


I completely agree with him, he also nailed Emilys track. I just don't see this entering the Gulf as of now, things may change though. However we saw the EURO switch back to an East Coast storm this morning.


Morning Reed... just an observation... but still the thing that bugs me is that over and over from model to model we saw that S FL and up the SEUS track... and it makes me think that the sudden gulf tracks look like outliers...

I heard some last night suggest the TX scenario might have been some sort of anomalous run.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
I *think* I see that 06 and 18 tends to "whip" back and forth a bit further than the 00 and 12, but both are certainly doing it.

00 and 12 seems to like the N to NE GoM solution in the more recent runs more than 06 and 18.


The real playa in 97Ls eventual track is that dadgum ULL. Right now the models cannot decide how much lift in latitude it is going to have on 97L.

We are all going to have to wait until Sunday / Monday to know for sure.
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Quoting Abacosurf:
Brave man!

Test done, seems like dog is happier than a wife.....
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3643. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56140
Quoting Relix:



Rain and light gusts :D


I'd start preparing for a tropical storm if I were you..
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Quoting Patrap:
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest97
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)







jinkies....Pat, this may be a good time to post (if you haven't already) that wonderful Hurricane kit and tips post you used to do....some folks may need reminders....
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You all remember the storm that started with an "A" anniversary is coming.......it to was the first Cane of the season.........JUST SAYN
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting mrpuertorico:
so any speculation on condiotions in PR for sunday night monday? Hurrican, Tropical Storm, Depression, a light breeze?

I would be expecting TS force conditions..especially southern and western side of the island.. possible hurricane conditions but too early to see how strong this would be until Sunday.
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3637. Patrap
Hurricane Georges (1998) track. Uses the color scheme from the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
97L looks to be centered near 13.5 N and 50.2 W although this is probably a little to the West of the projected position from the last official set.
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Quoting whepton3:
Margusity from accuwx is still into a FL-GA-SC-NC track... he seems a little skeptical of GFS runs...

Who knows, but I offer it for your consumption:

Link


I completely agree with him, he also nailed Emilys track. I just don't see this entering the Gulf as of now, things may change though. However we saw the EURO switch back to an East Coast storm this morning.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
We commonly talk about the difference in input data for the 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC GFS runs.

So, how do the long-term landfall areas of the 00 and 12 GFS runs compare to the same for the 06 and 18 UTC?

00 and 12 UTC GFS forecasts from 08/15 00 UTC to 08/19 00 UTC:


06 and 18 UTC GFS forecasts from 08/14 18 UTC to 08/19 06 UTC:


I *think* I see that 06 and 18 tends to "whip" back and forth a bit further than the 00 and 12, but both are certainly doing it.

00 and 12 seems to like the N to NE GoM solution in the more recent runs more than 06 and 18.
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I find it very interesting how the model split going nearly both ways keep if off the Big Island of DR with those large mountains........
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
3630. Relix
Quoting mrpuertorico:
so any speculation on condiotions in PR for sunday night monday? Hurrican, Tropical Storm, Depression, a light breeze?



Rain and light gusts :D
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I have a gut feeling that 97L will go into the carribean and stay there for the most part then curves to florida when it reach the Western Tip of cuba and while 97L festers in the caribbean I think this is going to be the one that becomes the first hurricane and possibley a major
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
Quoting reedzone:
You say Gulf, I say East Coast.. I believe this will get picked up by a trough and head towards North Carolina, perhaps further north. Or This may hit Florida. We know one thing for sure that this will NOT go out to sea.


Much is going to depend on how far to the north and west 97L is pulled by the ULL that is spinning off the east coast.

As it is at this moment, 97L is a weak system. So west for now.
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I really don't see this going in the Gulf right now.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
tim I get what you are saying about the trough.They didthe same thing with Georges and Ivan.Hpc forecast has this trough still well to the north east.Storm fury has tried repeatedly to show how this system is already headed well south of where this models project it.This system will be at 57w by this time tommorrow and showing no signs as of now of turning northerly.In the yers of novice experience with these things When they are moving 20 mph due west theey dont just abrubtly change track its more gradually.Now in 7 days if this system does not slow down considerably it will be much further west than what a lot of these models are showing.If you remember,the trough that picked charley caused record low temps for the north gulfcoast regoin.In the extended forecast out of NO I see no mention of a trough that significant.Also if you remember Ivan was supposed to go over the sw coast of fla.ike off the east coast.I dont want this thing to hit anyone.But i really feel somewhere from West La. to the west.Fla panhandle will have to deal with this.And in closing;i still think thier is a oppurtunity for this to continue right to the yuc and pull a allen or gilbert track.Its wait and see.Storm Fury i get what your saying.


Agree it seems WEST it will go and likely into the Caribbean. How strong will be the big concern from there. Land interaction might help alot but still hurt many.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Margusity from accuwx is still into a FL-GA-SC-NC track... he seems a little skeptical of GFS runs...

Who knows, but I offer it for your consumption:

Link
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so any speculation on condiotions in PR for sunday night monday? Hurrican, Tropical Storm, Depression, a light breeze?
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3623. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest97
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
3622. HCW
Quoting alvarig1263:
\

Just my opinion but this is my track and cone for 97L.


You really don't like me do you :) At least I wouldn't have to blow major money on gas for an intercept
Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1409
Quoting Vincent4989:

Starting test......
Brave man!
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You guys are talking about 6-8 days away.. that's guessing... just look at near term up to 3 days.. we dont know if this will even go into Hispaniola or stay south. Impacting Hispaniola will disrupt the circulation and maybe causing the LLC to race away from the midlevel and it would take 2 days for the LLC to regain anything.. by then (days 6-7) it could be anywhere from nearing Cozumel to Bahamas as whatever.

Lets watch the near term in development first into a TD before we can get a grasp on overall direction in days 3-5.. and especially not after that.
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I thought the pattern change of a westward building High was supposed to steer towards Florida?

Or is this system speeding up and will catch up with the trough?

when was this pattern change supposed to take place?
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1133
My guess for 97L Track

I expect that 97L will pass near Martinique and Dominica but I am leaning more on a track near Eastern Cuba and into the Gulf once the storm gets to those areas.
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Quoting TampaSpin:



Any Doubt where it is going..........


Ummmm...is there supposed to be an island under all those lines?
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All the GFS MOdels.........
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting TampaSpin:


The HWRF.......says south also.......


Near 16 N is where I believe it will come in. Until we have a closed low I prefer to ignore the models on track.
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Quoting Thunderpig75:


I'll be at wanee 2012...we should have a WU tent!
last two yrs we went primitive it was good but we showed up a day early basically grabbed a spot in the woods next yr might rent a spot from the park i heard eric clapton might come and play with the allman brothers " layla" next spring last yr they had the bathrm and shower scene well covered unlike the yr before. there will be life after storm season
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3611. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Weather Safety Emergency Checklist
Be ready for a weather emergency in advance and put together a basic survival kit.

Food Items:
%u25A0Bottled drinking water
%u25A0Bread
%u25A0Crackers
%u25A0Cookies, snacks
%u25A0Canned fruit
%u25A0Canned meat, fish
%u25A0Apples, bananas
%u25A0Dried fruit
%u25A0Canned/boxed beverages
%u25A0Fruit drinks
%u25A0Peanut butter
Non-Food Items:

%u25A0Ice
%u25A0Coolers
%u25A0Plastic forks and cups
%u25A0Napkins
%u25A0Can opener (non-electric)
%u25A0Batteries for flashlights and radio
%u25A0Plastic trash bags
%u25A0Charcoal
%u25A0Water purifying tablets
%u25A0Flashlights
%u25A0Candles and matches
%u25A0Clothing and bedding
%u25A0Extra socks and underwear
%u25A0Pillows
%u25A0Sleeping bag and blankets
%u25A0Washcloth and towel for each person
%u25A0Soap, toothbrushes, toothpaste
%u25A0Deodorant
%u25A0Shaving kit
%u25A0Contact lens solution
%u25A0Hair care items and mirror
%u25A0Dentures
%u25A0Sanitary napkins and tampons
%u25A0Paper towels, toilet paper
%u25A0Hearing aid batteries
%u25A0Watch or clock
%u25A0Portable radio with fresh batteries
%u25A0Chlorine tablets
%u25A0Spare pair of eyeglasses
%u25A0Cash
%u25A0Prescription medicines
%u25A0Important papers (drivers licenses, insurance policies, social security cards)
%u25A0Toolbox with hammer, nails, screws, screwdrivers and wrenches (to use after the storm to make your home livable again)
%u25A0Cell phone (take an extra battery or a means to power or charge it)
%u25A0A list of people to contact for emergencies

First Aid Kit:
Keep contents of first aid kit in a waterproof metal or plastic box.

%u25A0Prescription medicines (four-week supply)
%u25A0Bandages and Band-Aids
%u25A0Antiseptic
%u25A0Adhesive tape rolls
%u25A0Aspirin
%u25A0Insect repellent
%u25A0First aid handbook
%u25A0Scissors
%u25A0Antibacterial soap
%u25A0Safety pins
%u25A0Thermometer
%u25A0Needle (for splinters)
Items for Infants:

%u25A0Small toys %u2013 include favorite stuffed animals
%u25A0Clothes
%u25A0Diapers and baby wipes
%u25A0Milk or formula
%u25A0Powders, creams or ointments
%u25A0Bottles and nipples
%u25A0Baby food
%u25A0Sheets, blankets, rubber pads
%u25A0Portable crib
%u25A0Plastic bags
%u25A0Pacifiers
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56140
You say Gulf, I say East Coast.. I believe this will get picked up by a trough and head towards North Carolina, perhaps further north. Or This may hit Florida. We know one thing for sure that this will NOT go out to sea.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
so, with all the excitement going on, I am just tuning back in.

can someone please fill me in? based on what I am reading, am I correct to say that even compared to yesterday, Florida seems to be more out of the woods?

I am probably going to get clobbered for asking that one! :)
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1133
tim I get what you are saying about the trough.They didthe same thing with Georges and Ivan.Hpc forecast has this trough still well to the north east.Storm fury has tried repeatedly to show how this system is already headed well south of where this models project it.This system will be at 57w by this time tommorrow and showing no signs as of now of turning northerly.In the yers of novice experience with these things When they are moving 20 mph due west theey dont just abrubtly change track its more gradually.Now in 7 days if this system does not slow down considerably it will be much further west than what a lot of these models are showing.If you remember,the trough that picked charley caused record low temps for the north gulfcoast regoin.In the extended forecast out of NO I see no mention of a trough that significant.Also if you remember Ivan was supposed to go over the sw coast of fla.ike off the east coast.I dont want this thing to hit anyone.But i really feel somewhere from West La. to the west.Fla panhandle will have to deal with this.And in closing;i still think thier is a oppurtunity for this to continue right to the yuc and pull a allen or gilbert track.Its wait and see.Storm Fury i get what your saying.
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Quoting Abacosurf:
This is for Presslord....

Why Some Men Have Dogs And Not Wives:

1. The later you are, the more excited your dogs are to see you.

2. Dogs don't notice if you call them by another dog's name.

3. Dogs like it if you leave a lot of things on the floor.

4. A dog's parents never visit.

5. Dogs agree that you have to raise your voice to get your point across.

6. You never have to wait for a dog; they're ready to go 24 hours a day.

7. Dogs find you amusing when you're drunk..

8. Dogs like to go hunting and fishing.

9. A dog will not wake you up at night to ask, "If I died, would you get another dog?"

10. If a dog has babies, you can put an ad in the paper and give them away.

11. A dog will let you put a studded collar on it without calling you a pervert.

12. If a dog smells another dog on you, they don't get mad. They just think it's interesting.

13. Dogs like to ride in the back of a pickup truck

And last, but not least:

14. If a dog leaves, it won't take half of your stuff.


To test this theory: Lock your wife and your dog in the garage for an hour. Then open it and see who's happy to see you.

Starting test......
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Wow! That's quite a trough. Jackets, anyone?
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Quoting kmanislander:


We spoke about a Southerly track this morning but this is even farther South than I thought as that track is a heading of 270 degrees


Kman.......we will know soon. Looks to me like you might be headed for a dozzzy.....HEADS UP Brother.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
3603. Patrap
Expect a Updated entry here soon
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting TampaSpin:


The HWRF.......says south also.......



ECMWF is very similar. Just think the turn will be sooner rather than later ATM.

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Quoting wolftribe2009:


12z
Old 12z, 8/18/11 latest not out yet.
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3599. Relix
97L: Dry air... no defined center. Etc. Seems to be constantly gaining convection but it needs to do so around the whole system and not just the NW quadrant. Also the ULL close to PR may pose a problem if it heads up here... though I believe it will continue its weak state and go into the Caribbean. I've seen weirder stuff happen before though!
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This is the NOGAPS.......OUCH!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
\

Just my opinion but this is my track and cone for 97L.
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3596. MTWX
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


LOL

I feel 90 when Im rolling out of bed and a low pressure system (of any kind) is in town....

Somehow in life I have turned into a human weather station...

You and me both!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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