Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting lennit:
Chaser you have a link for the HWRF ? TIA>


Link
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2795. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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2793. lennit
Chaser you have a link for the HWRF ? TIA>
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2791. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


The generic HWRF is a decent model, but it has some obvious flaws like an intensity bias and a tendency to have a pole ward bias. This is a situation that the NOAA boys have been trying to fix for years, but they really haven't found anything that seems to fix it.

What I posted was actually a U of W HWRF variation and not the actual model.

Interesting..now what is the difference, takes off the north bias and high intesity it usually produces?
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Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl88:


How good of a model is HWRF? I know it usually intensifies things stronger then they actually end up getting, but what would you rank it in the model world?
It's notorious for blowing up storms. It's got convective feedback issues just like the NAM and therefore it usually over does systems. Also had a poleward bias last year, not sure if they've changed the model at all to fix that, but it was pretty significant last year.
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Consolidating a bit more at 120 east of Jamaica...

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
2786. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
08L/TD/XX
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Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl88:


Might go a lot further west in this run?


Still about the same track-wise.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl88:


How good of a model is HWRF? I know it usually intensifies things stronger then they actually end up getting, but what would you rank it in the model world?


The generic HWRF is a decent model, but it has some obvious flaws like an intensity bias and a tendency to have a pole ward bias. This is a situation that the NOAA boys have been trying to fix for years, but they really haven't found anything that seems to fix it.

What I posted was actually a U of W HWRF variation and not the actual model.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
Still undeveloped through 96 hours...moving just south of Hispaniola.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
Quoting MississippiWx:
Euro has a weak wave through 72 hours interacting with PR.


Might go a lot further west in this run?
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Euro has a weak wave through 72 hours interacting with PR.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
New HWRF variation





How good of a model is HWRF? I know it usually intensifies things stronger then they actually end up getting, but what would you rank it in the model world?
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2778. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
97l
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New HWRF variation



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Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl88:


What part?


Melrose. 20 miles east of Gainesville...
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2775. Gearsts
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Crazy

Can i get a link?
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Quoting yesterway:


Florida as well...


What part?
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00z CMC

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2771. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting gwadaman:


Thanks, it looked as if it were a bit more south..
i thinkl it did take a slight turn sw awaiting next image or two to confirm
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2770. MTWX
Is is just my tired eyes playing tricks on me, or does 93L seem to be pulling more to the NW poised to barely miss the Belize/ Honduras coast and head more toward a Yucatan landfall????
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Crazy

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Quoting Vincent4989:

both the probability maps he posted.... uh oh
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
impossible will not know that till its 24hrs or less away from final destination


lol +100
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Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl88:


Florida, and you?


Florida as well...
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Pretty strong ridge being depicted on the 00z Euro...

48 hours:

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
2765. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting ChrisDcat5Storm:
levi i know u hate doing this but if i gave u a million dollars to predict the landfall spot on the U.S were would it be
impossible will not know that till its 24hrs or less away from final destination
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Quoting yesterway:


May I ask what state you are in?


Florida, and you?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


INV/XX/97L
MARK
13.93N/43.97W


Thanks, it looked as if it were a bit more south..
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



rocket fuel


High Octane High Performance Rocket Fuel....
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2761. JRRP
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Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl88:


What's not?

both the probability maps he posted.... uh oh
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2758. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)



rocket fuel
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Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl88:


What's not?


May I ask what state you are in?
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levi i know u hate doing this but if i gave u a million dollars to predict the landfall spot on the U.S were would it be
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Quoting Vincent4989:

That's not good.............


What's not?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

That's not good.............
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2752. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting gwadaman:


Keep, what center fix do you have on 97L


INV/XX/97L
MARK
13.93N/43.97W
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Although the SSTs in the Central Pacific are averagely enough to support a tropical cyclone, the Pineapple Express, a jet stream responsible for some of the rains in America, is a lean mean killing machine that kills off cyclones with shear.
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Euro has initialized:

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Cyclonic curvature associated with 98L is more vigorous than 08L's. Additionally, the system has great convergence/divergence. Definitely looking at a percentage increase on the 2a.m TWO. I'm gonna go with something like 50%-60%. Quote me and crow me if I'm wrong lol.

Serving up crow!

Fresh of da grill come and get 'er!


Lol, evening everyone. just popping in for a little
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Later guys!!!
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
nope 98 at 40


Keep, what center fix do you have on 97L
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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