Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.
Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.
Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.
Jeff Masters
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Thank you. :)
It would suck, big time, PR isn't in conditions to deal with a Tropical system.
No, not yet...Way too early to know that answer. However the pattern favors a more direct hit farther to your south. Things change, though and change fast.
GFS is not as aggressive as ECMWF on a WNW track and stalls it more (waiting for the steering to become more conductive for a displacement to happen).
Forecast sure is getting interesting specially if it interacts directly with DR.
I Lost my link for ATCF site on the page where you can find the Renumberings and Initiations of invests, anyone have it? TIA
Lol...I didn't even mean that at all in that post. I was mainly talking about the United States, but it doesn't look like Puerto Rico is going to receive a hit from anything terribly strong. The rain might be an issue, though. I wouldn't expect it to be strong while hitting Puerto Rico...if it hit Puerto Rico, then went west and hit Haiti it wouldn't be strong then either. That's all I meant by that statement.
Didn't take long for everyone to jump on me...sheesh. Lol.
Nice 'cuda!
Link
PR isn't??? What about Haiti? IMO, PR is in FAR better shape to deal with a storm than Haiti. They have bad enough times dealing with their general everyday thunderstorms, much less a hurricane/tropical storm. Not saying the PR can deal with it, but they are far less at risk than Haiti is at this point.
I know you didn't mean it like that. :)
AL, 97, 2011081818, , BEST, 0, 136N, 394W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 175, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
PR and Haiti aren't compatible comparisons, we may not be in our best shape ever but we aren't that bad.
If I'm not mistaken there are areas that don't even have a power grid in Haiti.
What I meant to say is that PR would take awhile to go back to normal even after a TS.
never even thought for a second that the gfs ensembles would have shown recurving
that pretty much covers every solution..
Pretty much everywhere lol
Don't forget about rum Bacardi.
THANKS for posting this..TEXAS be on alert as the High breaks down next week..FINALLY. 103 degrees in the Houston Heights RIGHT NOW.
Ciguatera
AMEN..Thanks for saying that!
Yep, could be knocking on our doorstep early next week! So are you on the Ride Out Crew as a WX guy or are you required to evacuate like everyone else?
Someone downblog mentioned they worked for the NHC and the GFS and GFDL were the most trusted models.
On another note, this is probably the most inclusive run of TC AOIs I've seen:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current /mainrfps.png
Oh sure, absolutely... especially, in the higher terrain I can only imagine, where winds are typically higher and orographic lifting increases the amount of rainfall. PR does have its fair share of problems when a TS hits, indeed.
Partly Cloudy
103.3 °F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 41%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 6.0 mph from the WNW
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Pressure: 29.86 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 118 °F
Let's not forget that our friends in Central America are watching this one. Convection looks a bit lackluster at the moment. The environment around it is still a bit dry, but a whole lot less so than it was a couple of days ago. It's a small system, and could easily close off a surface circulation at any time. Based on where I am seeing the greatest turning at the surface, it looks to be headed for a scrape on top of the northern Honduras coastline. A difference in track of even 30 miles here could determine whether this dissipates quickly just inland over Honduras, or slips just north of the coastline and continues to strengthen until a landfall in Belize. Both countries should be monitoring the system.
For me, the main problem in PR if a storm hit us is the actual conditions of the power grid. Brother, if something happems this year, I'll be without power for about 2 1/2 months...and that's granted.
I have been in over 10 storms and after Ike the 'EXCITEMENT' of wanting to be in a landfall has ebbed. I appreciated you thinking of all the folks on those beautiful islands. Sometimes we get selfish and think ONLY USA , USA!
Houston Heights 103 degrees HOT !
LOL
Looks like some new convection developing near a possible center.
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