Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting emguy:
Side bar...not saying this might not affect SW Florida...It's just to early to start the hype just yet...Lots of variability remains.
sw fl. seems geographically alot more vulnerable late sept oct to a major but donna was so strong it did not lose too much going over cuba
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Quoting emguy:


They did it for us during Emily here too. Of course, we got la nadda, so I hope they reconsider doing this stuff this early on. Some of the folks I know around here will stop paying attention and will get caught with the pants down when the message is truely warranted. Ya know...the old crying wolf syndrome...
its a tough call on the timing of the call,but ya cant wait til its 24-48 hours from laand fall, it would cause a cluster#$%^
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2894. emguy
Side bar...not saying this might not affect SW Florida...It's just to early to start the hype just yet...Lots of variability remains.
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2893. emguy
Quoting islander101010:
twc did that for emily we got some showers from her for sure


They did it for us during Emily here too. Of course, we got la nadda, so I hope they reconsider doing this stuff this early on. Some of the folks I know around here will stop paying attention and will get caught with the pants down when the message is truely warranted. Ya know...the old crying wolf syndrome...
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Quoting Vincent4989:

Too corny.
whatever
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Quoting emguy:
The Weather Channel has upped the anty down here in SW Florida on their Local Forecast sceens. Was just watching the Local on the 8's and when the 7 day forecast screen came up, Thursday was outlined with a bright red box, which connected to a message bar below it that said, "Monitoring the tropics for potential local impacts, for further information, go to weather.com". I think they might be jumping the gun just a smidge too fast on this...


i dont know, ive seen many runs with a cat 3 hurricane sitting by tampa or ft myers for my liking
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Is President Chavez a bad guy? Hasnt he won 3-4 elections in a row?
i dont know to tell you the truth but i did like him standing up to big business. our guys sat there and watched job after job go overseas and then pollute our seas
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seems like its gonna be all about timing,assuming we have a well organized TS/Hurricane, its all timing of ridges building/eroding and trofs digging/lifting and where the storms feels those,thats where it heads north and makes landfall. The window it seems to me is from LA,around Florida and up to NC,IMO, its gonna go north in there somewhere.
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Quoting petewxwatcher:





perfect!!!! you got it Bubba.
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Quoting emguy:
The Weather Channel has upped the anty down here in SW Florida on their Local Forecast sceens. Was just watching the Local on the 8's and when the 7 day forecast screen came up, Thursday was outlined with a bright red box, which connected to a message bar below it that said, "Monitoring the tropics for potential local impacts, for further information, go to weather.com". I think they might be jumping the gun just a smidge too fast on this...
twc did that for emily we got some showers from her for sure
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:



HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA TOOOOO FUNNY

Too corny.
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2885. emguy
The Weather Channel has upped the anty down here in SW Florida on their Local Forecast sceens. Was just watching the Local on the 8's and when the 7 day forecast screen came up, Thursday was outlined with a bright red box, which connected to a message bar below it that said, "Monitoring the tropics for potential local impacts, for further information, go to weather.com". I think they might be jumping the gun just a smidge too fast on this...
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


I agree that there are still a lot of questions. But the models have been very consistent in bringing it into somewhere between Florida and the Carolinas, most often as a hurricane. That level of consistency can't be ignored.


Or indeed into the Gulf Coast, as the GFS has now latched onto. It might miss, or not develop, but the models have regularly shown a CONUS hit, and it's important to watch these things from more than 3 days out. Models at that range give clues to patterns rather than specific details, but they can still be used for long-range forecasts.
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Quoting islander101010:
american press tried to get us all to hate this guy. we learned the hard way. still a chance 97 misses the conus?


If I had to pick im saying yes it will landfall in the usa 70% to 30 recurve, that is assuming it evolves into a tropical cyclone at all
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Quoting scottsvb:
Dont look at anything until after it enters the carribean.

1 Does it interact with Hispaniola

2.Is it weaker and goes west thru Jamaica

3.Does it get stronger and feels the trough

4. How strong will the trough be


There are just too many questions... just look out to 3 days.. models will change each run.


I agree that there are still a lot of questions. But the models have been very consistent in bringing it into somewhere between Florida and the Carolinas, most often as a hurricane. That level of consistency can't be ignored.
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Quoting petewxwatcher:






HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA TOOOOO FUNNY
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Quoting petewxwatcher:






LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
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Quoting islander101010:
american press tried to get us all to hate this guy. we learned the hard way


Is President Chavez a bad guy? Hasnt he won 3-4 elections in a row?
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its 1:20am in soooo cal, do u know where the next landfalling hurricane will be?? ......lololol
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Quoting HimacaneBrees:


How you want em now you? Boiled, fried, grilled, soup, salad, sauteed, or you want some gumbo or some etoufee? LOL



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american press tried to get us all to hate this guy. we learned the hard way. still a chance 97 misses the conus?
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its getting late, i cant see the keys anymore to type and spell correctly
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I heard somewhere tat Venezuela has the 3rd or 2nd largest reserves of revoverable oil now,[assing Iraq and some other mid east countries. suprised me
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Quoting islander101010:
good morning early morning but im up. his people lived in barrios (giant ghettos) he took over command told the oil companies things are going to be different money had to stay in his country nationalized the ones that refused guess who he is? president bush hated this guy.


El Presidente Hugo Chavez??
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Quoting islander101010:
good morning early morning but im up. his people lived in barrios (giant ghettos) he took over command told the oil companies things are going to be different money had to stay in his country nationalized the ones that refused guess who he is? president bush hated this guy.


Chavez
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good morning early morning but im up. his people lived in barrios (giant ghettos) he took over command told the oil companies things are going to be different money had to stay in his country nationalized the ones that refused guess who he is? president bush hated this guy.
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
Good early morning everyone.I have been wondering.If the GOM were to get a hurricane cat 2 or 3,I wonder if there would be oil to come from the bottom of the GOM and come ashore with the Hurricane? I know there has got to be oil still out there somewhere.Just curious.Any thoughts on this? TIA


That would have to be one hell of a storm, though the oil still washes up...
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
I hope you are right.I didnt mean to cause a debate.I was just wondering about it.I know the GOM is a big ocean.But I just cant see them getting all that oil out of there.Maybe we will never have to find out.But thank you both for your responses.


You are very welcome. You are very correct It is a big ocean. There was a major oil spill in Mexico in 1979. A rig drilling for PEMEX had a blowout, very similar to the Horizon. The PEMEX well was flowing 30,000 barrels of oil a day into the GOM for 3 months. The oil actually reached the Texas coastline. It was burned, dispersed, etc. Same story as BP spill. But I've not read any info on upwelling of oil from the sea floor by hurricanes from that spill. That previous spill and what I see from the current situation is what I've based my opinion on. A year ago at this time my opinion would've been 100% different. Because at that time we would still see quite a bit of oil on the surface.
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Everyone have a Blessed Day got to make my contributions to the work place.Hope everyone has their Hurricane Preparedness ready for what looks to be a busy couple of months.
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Quoting HimacaneBrees:


How you want em now you? Boiled, fried, grilled, soup, salad, sauteed, or you want some gumbo or some etoufee? LOL


nesways yous got dem succkas ready!!!!
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Please do.


Wonderful!

I wonder if any model runs will switch back east towards maybe, um Georgetown SC. I doubt it. But being on the right side of a hurricane moving into SC, even below Charleston, has brought us surprisingly nasty weather.
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Quoting Chicklit:


I've just had total hip replacement surgery and am in no shape to drive or evacuate should anything arrive in ECFL. We'll just have to see what plays out. But yeah, it's the third week in August and stuff is happening. There was a discussion yesterday on here about how difficult it is to evacuate in Florida. I would be staying with my pets anyway and can get people to put up my hurricane shutters. Looks like we do have two Cape Verde waves that are favorable for development though. So it's best to be mindful now about preparations not only for ourselves but for our neighbors (like my mother!) who do not think about hurricane preparation until it's almost too late.



There should be folks to help in situations like yours chicklet,prob call police/fire/city government to inquire. I have seen many runs of the models showing a storm near Florida,Over Florida, best to find out your options now. Good Luck
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


PASS DA SHRIMPS PLEASE!


How you want em now you? Boiled, fried, grilled, soup, salad, sauteed, or you want some gumbo or some etoufee? LOL
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Quoting Chicklit:


Cleaned up and covered up are two different things...
back to sleep for me now but wanted to check on things here as there is a lot going on!
Hope you get to feeling better Chicklit and you have a fast recovery from your surgery.My thoughts and prayers are with you sweetie.
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Quoting HimacaneBrees:


Good morning. This question could cause a serious debate I believe. Some would say yes. I say I don't believe so. I work on a drilling rig in GOM, and I just got back on here yesterday. I've not seen any oil out here for quite a long while now. The rig I'm on has been moving back and forth from south of Fourchon La. to the Eastern side of Venice La. I have a camp in Venice LA. I was there the past 2 weekends fishing, and I've seen no oil. I've not seen any oil there in a long while. That is all the info I can give you. The oil is dispersed as far as what I'm seeing. And yes I ate fish and crabs that we caught there. Plus some very delicious freshly caught shrimp that we bought.
I hope you are right.I didnt mean to cause a debate.I was just wondering about it.I know the GOM is a big ocean.But I just cant see them getting all that oil out of there.Maybe we will never have to find out.But thank you both for your responses.
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Quoting HimacaneBrees:


Good morning. This question could cause a serious debate I believe. Some would say yes. I say I don't believe so. I work on a drilling rig in GOM, and I just got back on here yesterday. I've not seen any oil out here for quite a long while now. The rig I'm on has been moving back and forth from south of Fourchon La. to the Eastern side of Venice La. I have a camp in Venice LA. I was there the past 2 weekends fishing, and I've seen no oil. I've not seen any oil there in a long while. That is all the info I can give you. The oil is dispersed as far as what I'm seeing. And yes I ate fish and crabs that we caught there. Plus some very delicious freshly caught shrimp.


PASS DA SHRIMPS PLEASE!
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Seems the models are having problems deciding where its going. Last time I looked it was fro Texas to Recurvature north right by south florida,perhaps a bit narrower than that ,lets say LA to East Coast of Florida regurve.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Some folks in here think BP cleaned up all the oil. Huh?


Cleaned up and covered up are two different things...
back to sleep for me now but wanted to check on things here as there is a lot going on!
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
Good early morning everyone.I have been wondering.If the GOM were to get a hurricane cat 2 or 3,I wonder if there would be oil to come from the bottom of the GOM and come ashore with the Hurricane? I know there has got to be oil still out there somewhere.Just curious.Any thoughts on this? TIA


Good morning. This question could cause a serious debate I believe. Some would say yes. I say I don't believe so. I work on a drilling rig in GOM, and I just got back on here yesterday. I've not seen any oil out here for quite a long while now. The rig I'm on has been moving back and forth from south of Fourchon La. to the Eastern side of Venice La. I have a camp in Venice LA. I was there the past 2 weekends fishing, and I've seen no oil. I've not seen any oil there in a long while. That is all the info I can give you. The oil is dispersed as far as what I'm seeing. And yes I ate fish and crabs that we caught there. Plus some very delicious freshly caught shrimp that we bought.
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
Good early morning everyone.I have been wondering.If the GOM were to get a hurricane cat 2 or 3,I wonder if there would be oil to come from the bottom of the GOM and come ashore with the Hurricane? I know there has got to be oil still out there somewhere.Just curious.Any thoughts on this? TIA


Some folks in here think BP cleaned up all the oil. Huh?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Hmmm.... Nothing I'm seeing about this upcoming week is making me super happy...


I've just had total hip replacement surgery and am in no shape to drive or evacuate should anything arrive in ECFL. We'll just have to see what plays out. But yeah, it's the third week in August and stuff is happening. There was a discussion yesterday on here about how difficult it is to evacuate in Florida. I would be staying with my pets anyway and can get people to put up my hurricane shutters. Looks like we do have two Cape Verde waves that are favorable for development though. So it's best to be mindful now about preparations not only for ourselves but for our neighbors (like my mother!) who do not think about hurricane preparation until it's almost too late.
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if you look at the loop,it appears the low clouds in the southern part of strom get sucked in to the stronger convection further north in TD#8.

Link
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Hmmm.... Nothing I'm seeing about this upcoming week is making me super happy...
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Quoting MississippiWx:
The difference in the strength of the trof the Euro is showing is pretty extreme. It's not even close. A trof THAT strong in August would be nuts.

12z:


00z:

Wait, is that 3 different systems Euro is showing above 15N????

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Good early morning everyone.I have been wondering.If the GOM were to get a hurricane cat 2 or 3,I wonder if there would be oil to come from the bottom of the GOM and come ashore with the Hurricane? I know there has got to be oil still out there somewhere.Just curious.Any thoughts on this? TIA
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Hey. What's the latest on model runs? Did we get the swing back towards FL in this run as expected?

I did check NHC first, and noticed they have both 97 and 98L up to medium. Not unexpected with 97L... I expected them to slowly increase that one as it gets closer to the islands.... did they increase with 98L because of potential impacts to the CVs?
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I would love to see neither 97 or 98 develop beyond TS stage like the others this year. There would be crow juice in the refrigerator. Until there is a physical storm, there is NO STORM!
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2848. Gearsts
Quoting JRRP:
00 GMT 08/19/11 13.6N 41.4W 25 1008 Invest
06 GMT 08/19/11 13.5N 44.2W 25 1007 Invest
Dont undestand:/
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15.4n81.5w has been re-evaluated&altered for TD.8_6amGMT_ATCF
15.4n81.8w, 15.5n82.8w are now the most recent positions
Starting 18August_6amGMT and ending 19August_6amGMT

The westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
TropicalDepression8's travel-speed was 15.7mph(25.2k/h) on a heading of 274degrees(W)
TD.8 was headed toward passage over Ratlaya,Honduras ~3&1/2 hours from now

Copy&paste gcm, 15.2n76.6w, 15.3n78.1w-15.3n79.4w, 15.3n79.4w-15.4n80.4w, 15.4n80.4w-15.4n81.5w, 15.4n81.5w-15.5n82.9w, cdd, 15.4n81.5w-15.575n84.03w, bgk into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 19August_12mGMT)
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Please do.
hahaha
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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