Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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2946. WxLogic
Morning...

Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
Let's see if this works better.
Link
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Let's see if this works better.
http://youtu.be/7W11KDMkbwI?t=25s
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Yes, next weekend will tell the tale pretty well. I hope everyone who is potentially in a place that can get a hurricane hit has already laid in basic supplies and not one who waits until the last minute. For Rita I had all my supplies for myself and two kids. But a friend and her two kids had none. Mine then had to take care of six people instead of three.
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0600z GFS is running and looks like 97L-to-be is skirting the south coast of Cuba at the 162hr mark.
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2941. vince1
Quoting cwf1069:
After you go through 50 years of communism you can smell it from the distance, sorry guys, just stay my point of view. I'm not Venezuelan, but can see the destruction on that country in the recent years. You may don't know what is living without freedom. Go to jail for a couple of weeks and you will know it. That simple. No rights to nothing, that is what lefty presidents can do to their people. But you have to live it to understand.
TD 8 is gaining in convection, and looks a little farther north which means less interaction with land. But lets wait until the plane get there.

I agree with you. Tyranny of any flavor (be it communism or fascism) is antithetical to liberty, which is a movement that has received lots of attention as of late (especially in one certain candidate whom the mainstream tries its damndest to ignore). We are always one generation away from losing it, and I fear it is about to escape from our grasp thanks to economic calamity and those who will swoop in with their "fixes" (many of whom are responsible for landing us in this mess, others of whom have exacerbated the problem).

You suspect 93L/TD8 is trying to gain latitude? :)
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take a look at this weird vortex cloud found on youtube.
Link
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Thanks Canesfan. I think it's still about nine days out or so? So much could/will change still. A small shift dramatically changes what individuals might feel her wrath. The room will be quite busy for the next month or two I think.


Yeah next weekend. Yup - agreed. Does feel like the streak of no strikes in the continental US is probably over pretty soon though. :/
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2937. ackee
I think THE GFS 0z6 AND OZ RUN IS THE SAME GIVEN WHERE 97L right now GEM CMC track similar would not be suprise if this track plays out
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Thanks Canesfan. I think it's still about nine days out or so? So much could/will change still. A small shift dramatically changes what individuals might feel her wrath. The room will be quite busy for the next month or two I think.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
It looks like the track of 97 has changed again from yesterday afternoon? Or was it that only GFS had it going into the GOM yesterday? I was heat-dead and only read what was on here.


Euro had it as a strong 'cane in the central GOMex yesterday. I think the CMC has continued to show something further east, like FLA.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
I heard somewhere tat Venezuela has the 3rd or 2nd largest reserves of revoverable oil now,[assing Iraq and some other mid east countries. suprised me


I don't know that it's that high from what 3rd party firms calculate. You can't listen to the Venz themselves as they are prone to well overinflate their crude oil production.

I think Canada could be the one that rivals Saudi more than anyone.
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It looks like the track of 97 has changed again from yesterday afternoon? Or was it that only GFS had it going into the GOM yesterday? I was heat-dead and only read what was on here.
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Miami NWS Discussion

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY GFS
AND ECMWF) CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE, CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC, AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND EVEN SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM COULD BE IN OUR VICINITY
DURING THIS PERIOD. DUE TO LARGE UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS TIME,
DECIDED TO KEEP THE "STATUS QUO" AND DO NOT INTRODUCE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
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2931. cwf1069
Quoting islander101010:
what destruction? and everyone goes to school now. sounds like your an exile from cuba i have lots of friends from that island. good luck

The point its not going to school. Its living that reality. Even I, that grow under that regime (of course, Castro's), was a believer of them. Until one day... I got on jail for trying to leave my country. Can you believe it. Of course not, you can go wherever you want without that problem. And a lot, a lot, a lot... things. I don't want to get banned for that, either you. Lets leave it like this. We could be chatting hours about it. But as this is a weather blog, lets talk about it that the coming days are going to be very busy. Good look for you and yours if you are in the path of these storms.
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2930. aquak9
Quoting MahFL:
Morning all, we got 4.25 inches of rain yesterday in Orange Park.


holy cow! I was stuck at work, looked like a healthy cell but I was too busy to follow the radar. Wow!

Good for ya'll!
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In three years living in Germany I never saw a heavy thunderstorm. This summer when I was there we were trying to explain to my son's neighbor what one was like, they couldn't comprehend it.
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2928. MahFL
Morning all, we got 4.25 inches of rain yesterday in Orange Park.
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Bouy near 97L ~14.2N ~46W


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Quoting petewxwatcher:
It's very sad. Besides the 5 killed, 70 are hospitalized, some in critical condition. People in charge of these festivals need to be more aware.


How often are there storms that severe in Belgium? 70mph winds and half-inch hail? It's hard to prepare for something that rare. AFAIK anyway, I lived in Europe a year and never saw more than a heavy rain, nothing like an East Texas thunderstorm even, much less any severe weather.
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Very odd season so far. Nothing really seems to get going. Here we are approaching the peak of the season and waves are having a tuff time in the mid atlantic maintaining any consistency. 97 has southerly winds aloft over it and is struggling, at this point anyway, to say the least. 93 hasn't really done anything while moving over a prime area for potential development. I was feeling very concerned yesterday about where 97 will end up. While still concerned, I dont think I feel as concerned as I did yesterday.
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everyone goes to school now.
Quoting cwf1069:
After you go through 50 years of communism you can smell it from the distance, sorry guys, just stay my point of view. I'm not Venezuelan, but can see the destruction on that country in the recent years. You may don't know what is living without freedom. Go to jail for a couple of weeks and you will know it. That simple. No rights to nothing, that is what lefty presidents can do to their people. But you have to live it to understand.
TD 8 is gaining in convection, and looks a little farther north which means less interaction with land. But lets wait until the plane get there.
sounds like your an exile from cuba i have lots of friends from that island. good luck
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4724
Good morning, everyone. It was 109 degrees here yesterday and we're under a heat advisory for today. They say it will be hotter. I am so ready for October! So what is the current GFS track?
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2922. msphar
Sunrise on 97L. Leading edge around 50W. Is it climbing ? Or still flat ?
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2921. ackee
TD#8 looks like a TS wonder what the NHC will do at 8am
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ECMWF brings 97L as a powerful hurricane off the coast of North Carolina. It's fun watching the models flip around and change, but I don't think the forecast will gel until Monday. Would be a kick if 97L faked all the models out and never amounted to much at all.

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2919. cwf1069
After you go through 50 years of communism you can smell it from the distance, sorry guys, just stay my point of view. I'm not Venezuelan, but can see the destruction on that country in the recent years. You may don't know what is living without freedom. Go to jail for a couple of weeks and you will know it. That simple. No rights to nothing, that is what lefty presidents can do to their people. But you have to live it to understand.
TD 8 is gaining in convection, and looks a little farther north which means less interaction with land. But lets wait until the plane get there.
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2918. ackee
I will be watching as well if 97L takes more weat and south track system seem nit south model contiue to trend a bit more south guess we see
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Quoting cwf1069:
Chavez is not a president. He's a dictator. So many years in power. Fraud after fraud. The national electoral college was appointed by him and do every thing on his favor. Poor people are the mayority, most of the time ignorant's, that can be lied easily. Given money to them that doesn't belong to him to buy votes. And .......Sorry, but I have to tell.
97L it's moistening it's surrounds. Let see if what the models are saying for days become a reality.

traveled all thru latin america venezuela columbia before the drug wars. chavez? it depends on who your talking to. the poor in venezuela are better off now than they were no doubt. here in the us instead of pamplets advertisements ext i wish politicians would send us cash at least it would not end up in the trash
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4724
2916. vince1
Cwf1060, sounds a lot like another usurper's strategy...fooling (and growing) the dependent class in hopes of retaining lifelong votes. :0

On-topic, yay for 93L not developing into a monster hurricane.
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2915. msphar
97L has tracked very flat for the last 6.3 degrees of westing. Forecast tracks show this to continue for another few degrees then a turn to a more WNW direction. Perhaps. Will have to see the turn to believe it. In any case tracks are clustered around this concept taking the disturbance into Hispaniola. Good news for Puerto Rico.
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2914. cwf1069
Chavez is not a president. He's a dictator. So many years in power. Fraud after fraud. The national electoral college was appointed by him and do every thing on his favor. Poor people are the mayority, most of the time ignorant's, that can be lied easily. Given money to them that doesn't belong to him to buy votes. And .......Sorry, but I have to tell.
97L it's moistening it's surrounds. Let see if what the models are saying for days become a reality.

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It's very sad. Besides the 5 killed, 70 are hospitalized, some in critical condition. People in charge of these festivals need to be more aware.
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You have to select old embed code when you click on the share button in youtube. That embeds the videos here.
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dont know how to post y tube ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDEliwkQgEk&feature =related ) most festivals dont end in disaster except for the hangovers gregg allman dreams they had to ice the drummer trucks knees in between songs. tgif
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4724
And a tent collapsing at the Pukkelpop music festival in Belgium Aug 18



View from inside stage looking out before it collapses:

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i going to magnolia fest in end of oct northern fl. moe railrd earth lucida williams bela fleck rock and bluegrass festival ext going to be a fun time i hope. going to stay in a tent but got the vehicle right there in case. went to wanee last spring great time the organizers took down the tarps and stuff as a precaution when a front blew threw that was the front that caused all the killing tornadoes just up in the carolinas. best party ever steve miller robert plant allman brothers.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4724
5 people killed by storm wrecking Pukkelpop music festival in Belgium on August 18.



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Quoting islander101010:
some of the s american and latin american countries are booming now flew to panama a couple months ago panama city is humming with activity skyscrapers everywhere. looks like a 21st century city nowadays

I get down to Panama City every few months for work; it's become my favorite Latin American city. Close, friendly, thriving--and inexpensive. And, yes, the skyline has been filled with tower cranes for five or six straight years now.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13551
Quoting weatherjr:
I do not believe Invest 93 is now a TD. NHC put that this way for people in it pass to take some rain into account. BUT that is NOT a tropical depression. Common sense says that.
problem is reality is sometimes different than we see on our computer screens im looking for a minumal tropical storm to make landfall in belise.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4724
Quoting HimacaneBrees:


Hell a few years ago he took over some american owned drilling rigs. By taking over I mean the Venezuelan Army came on board the rigs, and escorted all American personnel off the rig. The only ex pat (American)workers on the rigs were supervisors. The rest of the workers were all Venezuelan nationals. He would not allow the American drilling companies to move their rigs out of Venezuela until just recently. This was only after he had worked the rigs to pieces. They couldn't be used anymore, and had to have complete overhauls.
some of the s american and latin american countries are booming now flew to panama a couple months ago panama city is humming with activity skyscrapers everywhere. looks like a 21st century city nowadays
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4724
000
WTNT43 KNHC 190841
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BEEN EASY TO LOCATE THIS
MORNING. BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA...THE
CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SMALL
CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS.
THIS YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/10. THE DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A MORE-OR-LESS WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF ITS EXISTENCE WHILE BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES AT THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...NEAR THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE
SIMPLER BAM MODELS. ALTHOUGH A 72 HOUR FORECAST POINT IS
PROVIDED...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE HIGH TERRAIN OF GUATEMALA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL HAVE ANNIHILATED THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BY
THAT TIME.

DVORAK NUMBERS ARE T2.0 FROM TAFB AND T2.5 FROM SAB...AND THE
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION LATER THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD PROVIDE MORE CERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY...NOT TO
MENTION THE CENTER LOCATION...IF IT EXISTS AT ALL. LITTLE TO NO
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS SINCE THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO SKIRT ALONG THE COAST OF...OR MOVE INLAND
OVER...HONDURAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS...BUT IF THE DEPRESSION MOVES OVER WATER FOR A
LONGER PERIOD OF TIME IT COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE AS SHOWN BY
THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. IT COULD ALSO JUST AS
EASILY MOVE OVER LAND AND NEVER RE-EMERGE OVER WATER...WHICH MAY
PRECLUDE ANY INTENSIFICATION AT ALL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 15.5N 83.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 15.6N 84.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/0600Z 15.8N 86.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 20/1800Z 16.1N 87.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 21/0600Z 16.4N 89.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 22/0600Z 17.0N 94.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
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so many cold fronts turn most storms from caribbean in oct/nov ne to florida, it seems anyway
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i gotta get me 40 winks of sleep its 2am in sooo cal, i be back in 6 hours to hear the next round of predictions.

God Bless u all

goodnight
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Quoting islander101010:
sw fl. seems geographically alot more vulnerable late sept oct to a major but donna was so strong it did not lose too much going over cuba


agreed
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2899. emguy
October is our most likely time of year to have a hurricane down here, but we are generally wide open to the entire timeframe of June-Nov, and I can note a recent August here in Port Chrlotte/Punta Gorda that I shall not soon forget.
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Quoting islander101010:
sw fl. seems geographically alot more vulnerable late sept oct to a major


indeed
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Quoting islander101010:
i dont know to tell you the truth but i did like him standing up to big business. our guys sat there and watched job after job go overseas and then pollute our seas


Hell a few years ago he took over some american owned drilling rigs. By taking over I mean the Venezuelan Army came on board the rigs, and escorted all American personnel off the rig. The only ex pat (American)workers on the rigs were supervisors. The rest of the workers were all Venezuelan nationals. He would not allow the American drilling companies to move their rigs out of Venezuela until just recently. This was only after he had worked the rigs to pieces. They couldn't be used anymore, and had to have complete overhauls.
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Quoting emguy:
Side bar...not saying this might not affect SW Florida...It's just to early to start the hype just yet...Lots of variability remains.
sw fl. seems geographically alot more vulnerable late sept oct to a major but donna was so strong it did not lose too much going over cuba
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4724

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.