Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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2996. scott39
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



06Z vort run
Do you see 97L staying that intact over the Islands before the SE coast or GOM?
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2994. scott39
Goodmorning, Does the ECMWF or the GFS have a better grip on a USA strike? Its looking like the Islands in the Caribbean are more than likely looking at a TC.
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Also, somewhere along the way, 97 is going to be impacted by the large upper level low you see here just north of Puerto Rico. It may have a tendency to "tug" 97 a little more north initially, but it also may have some detrimental impacts to its development with some increased shear. The models do not handle shear issues very well, especially when it due to an upper level low. I just see a lot of obstacles for 97 over the next few days, still way to early of course, but I just don't see this system really getting going until it can tap into the western Caribbean or eastern Gulf if the current track trends hold.


Link
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Quoting petewxwatcher:
There have been more tornadoes in Europe than some may think. (Pukkelpop was not a tornado as far as I know) Here is a list. Strong tornadoes imply that severe thunderstorms were present.

And the first detailed description of a severe thunderstorm's structure was from a severe thunderstorm in England.


Meant to say this was a very interesting post earlier, but got sidetracked.
Yes, I'd often wondered if Europe got tornados and such. And I'd figured they were either none existant or even more rare than those links show. Still nothing like "tornado alley" in the USA though for twisters.
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2990. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)



06Z vort run
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Quoting islander101010:
first time ive seen dark red on the ir slow steady intensification


SOutherly flow aloft (see WV loop) seems to be holding it back a bit.
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From my front yard yesterday to yours this morning, Pensa! Who wants this evening?
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2986. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Holy cow KOG! That model run brings it to my doorstep!
ya i know a lotta folks doorstep in times like this all i can say is keep yer head
watch wait see please leave if and when told to do so
don't like the idea of something tracking across that rocket fuel bro things could be bad real bad and its best if affected to just move outta the way
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Quoting MahFL:
97L looking ok. It has that clasic location associated with FL/US landfall storms.

first time ive seen dark red on the ir slow steady intensification
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
I hope you are right.I didnt mean to cause a debate.I was just wondering about it.I know the GOM is a big ocean.But I just cant see them getting all that oil out of there.Maybe we will never have to find out.But thank you both for your re
sponses.

I do a lot of business with the charter boat captains,and spend a lot of time from Venice to Dularge with them.Visually on the surface,no,but what concerns them is what you cant see.BP is still monitoring the Pelican nesting season and doing number counts.
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2981. JGreco
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Holy cow KOG! That model run brings it to my doorstep!


No to Pensacola. That put me on the East side, I won't allow that. Improve the forcefield Ike:)
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2980. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting WxLogic:
Keep in mind the evolution of 98L as it will affect the track of 97L when it enters Carib.

Having 98L in the picture as a TS/HURR would impact the strength of the Bermuda/Azores High and location, since it would help on breaking it down and strengthen it in in certain areas.


Your right. 98 look to drive a hole right in the middle of the high mid atlantic.
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2978. MahFL
97L looking ok. It has that classic Winward Island approach location, associated with FL/US landfall storms.

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2977. WxLogic
I'm pretty much know that if a 06Z track/intensity were to ever happen... that Drakoen and the Meterorology Dept. students at FSU would be busy for sure.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4928
Holy cow KOG! That model run brings it to my doorstep!
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Quoting JGreco:


Seems like all the models jump around the panhandle of Florida unfortunately. I know its really far out, but I am helping Ike put the force field up in our area:0


I dont want it in the panhandle. Have to take son up to FSU for school next wensday!! We live in SE Fla. Next week could be a real drag around here. Hoping for the best! No storm!
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2974. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
102 DAYS REMAIN OF 2011 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
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2973. aquak9
thanks, ais! I'll bring supplies!

laterz
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2972. WxLogic
Keep in mind the evolution of 98L as it will affect the track of 97L when it enters Carib.

Having 98L in the picture as a TS/HURR would impact the strength of the Bermuda/Azores High and location, since it would help on breaking it down and strengthen it in in certain areas.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4928
2971. JGreco
Quoting barotropic:
Day ( shows 97 moving north towards the panhandle well off floridas coast. Seems to be responding to the troff. The strong ridge seen in previos runs doesn't seem as strong. Gonna be a matter of timing and intensity. Seems like the Central and west gulf may be ok and its going to have to cross the islands before it gets anywhere.


Seems like all the models jump around the panhandle of Florida unfortunately. I know its really far out, but I am helping Ike put the force field up in our area:0
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00Z GFS Ensembles





Last day of GFS Ensembles


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10875
Quoting aquak9:
post 2959- uhhh...where's Florida? :(

no prob, ais. I hate for folks to get frustrated and/or feel ignored.


Florida is missing, everyone left. Louisiana is still there, even the people. *G* You can always come to the dog house here, aqua.
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2968. breald
Morning All. I see the tropics are heating up. It looks like we have at least one storm that could pose a threat to the Eastern Seaboard.
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Quoting Chucktown:
97 L is a mess this morning, and still a tremendous amount of dry air associated with it. This is looking more and more like 93 looked like last week. I know everyone is still saying its not going to develop until it gets to 50 W, but even by that point if its still battling dry air, land interaction may further delay any kind of development. Still think the models are way off any kind of intensity forecasts right now.


Agree. Looks pretty poor for a wave in the mid atlantic this time of year. Dry air and southerly winds aloft are holding it back.
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2966. aquak9
post 2959- uhhh...where's Florida? :(

no prob, ais. I hate for folks to get frustrated and/or feel ignored.
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Day 9 shows 97 moving north towards the panhandle well off floridas coast. Seems to be responding to the troff. The strong ridge seen in previous runs doesn't seem as strong. Gonna be a matter of timing and intensity. Seems like the Central and west gulf may be ok and its going to have to cross the islands before it gets anywhere.
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2964. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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This is sad. My seventeen year old daughter just told me it looks like it will be cooler on Monday. I asked, really? She says yes, only in the 90's...
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2962. WxLogic
Quoting Chucktown:
97 L is a mess this morning, and still a tremendous amount of dry air associated with it. This is looking more and more like 93 looked like last week. I know everyone is still saying its not going to develop until it gets to 50 W, but even by that point if its still battling dry air, land interaction may further delay any kind of development. Still think the models are way off any kind of intensity forecasts right now.


Yeap... pressure wise they pretty much have it set and since it would need more convection to get those winds speed up even higher then the intensity as you mention would be less. At least that's what I hope.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4928
2961. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
XX/INV/98L
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oh wow, thanks aqua. I thought he was talking about the spout. <--Eyes coffee cup, may have to have a third this morning to wake up. He _said_ vertex...
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0600z 216hrs

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2958. vince1
Hector's first link worked if you clicked through:
Horizontal rotating funnel cloud

EDIT: Sorry, was beat to the punch.
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00Z ECMWF Ensembles show a large range of possibilities out at longer range.
Left Ensemble Mean and spread
Right Deterministic (what you normally see on plots)

168 hours





240 hours





So still all of GOM coast and SE CONUS in play based on ECMWF Ensemble.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10875
2956. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
INV/XX/97L
MARK
13.29N/47.28W
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2955. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.W.
08L/TD/XX
mark
16.36N/82.36W
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WxLogic,
That's the scary part. With the GOM water so hot, we could see a very strong hurricane if it gets there.
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2953. aquak9
here ya go, hevtorIvan's vid, I think it's in Georgia
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97 L is a mess this morning, and still a tremendous amount of dry air associated with it. This is looking more and more like 93 looked like last week. I know everyone is still saying its not going to develop until it gets to 50 W, but even by that point if its still battling dry air, land interaction may further delay any kind of development. Still think the models are way off any kind of intensity forecasts right now.
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There have been more tornadoes in Europe than some may think. (Pukkelpop was not a tornado as far as I know) Here is a list. Strong tornadoes imply that severe thunderstorms were present.

And the first detailed description of a severe thunderstorm's structure was from a severe thunderstorm in England.
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2950. WxLogic
@189HR

Slow mover given that is trying now to test the western periphery of the high and unfortunately giving it too much time over water for further strengthening.

Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4928
Quoting EastTexJake:

0600z GFS is running and looks like 97L-to-be is skirting the south coast of Cuba at the 162hr mark.


Day shows it near SW tip of cuba - with a deepening troff over the Eastern USA.
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Still didn't work, Hector. But I saw it earlier. Water spout that came on land?
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still a chance for it not to reach the conus?
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2946. WxLogic
Morning...

Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4928

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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