Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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Convection on the increase... I think 97L is saying it's time to start showing myself

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, KEEP. When do you think this dry air will start moving out? Looks like a little struggle there for a bit.



Too much dry air for mid/late august
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5927
Quoting ackee:
I will be watching as well if 97L takes more weat and south track system seem nit south model contiue to trend a bit more south guess we see


The estimated location where a center might develop is almost the same latitude as Barbados, and currently moving west.

Many seasons that I've watched threats roll into the Caribbean and I have noticed that often times the models have these systems passing just north of the Leewards...and this often ends up not happening. I wouldn't be surprisd to see the models continue to shift south in the short term. I can only assume that often times the models forecast for faster intensification and make a stronger system, which gains latitude more quickly.
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Quoting WxLogic:
06Z NGP Well... another.


Morning Logic..

Chalk another model up to the 97L fan club.

Boy, for S. FL that's a pretty ominous solution.
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3042. Grothar
NHC expected wave heights.

<>img src="">
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25308
3041. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, KEEP. When do you think this dry air will start moving out? Looks like a little struggle there for a bit.

actually it should move in tandem and disperse as the enity aproaches northern islands later tonight early saturday morning
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
3040. scott39
Quoting DookiePBC:
Good morning all...

Haven't had my morning caffeine yet, so can someone fill me in...as far as 97L goes, are we still all DOOM?
Getting a little more concerning as the hours and days path. I hope we dont go to a REAL DOOM!
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Quoting Vincent4989:

Request authorization to use Poof Bomb........
Authorization approved. It's a go.
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Quoting thewildhourlychanges:
well i have been 100% right on every storm track and intensity forcast so far this year



And you have been a member on here since, erm . . . yesterday.

That makes you all the more amazing, imo.
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Quoting goldenpixie1:
Good morning all!

Are TD8 and 93 one and the same?
Yes. Good morning.
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Quoting Grothar:
Even if 97L hits South Florida, I don't have to worry that it will be on my doorstep. My doorstep faces West.



'Mornin' all.

So does mine Gro... though I am worried about my patio furniture, since by virtue of the front yard facing west, the back patio faces east.

Models are troubling still... waiting 'til over the weekend to see..

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Quoting thewildhourlychanges:
well cant trust the models at all this year they have a perfect bogus track record so far with 7 storms
NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONDUCIVE AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES ON
SATURDAY.
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Quoting WxLogic:
06Z NGP Well... another.


Damn!!
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Good morning all...

Haven't had my morning caffeine yet, so can someone fill me in...as far as 97L goes, are we still all DOOM?
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 447
3032. scott39
Quoting Grothar:
Whats up Groth. These longterm models seem to be getting less entertaining, and more of a reality that 97L needs to go away.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
do me a favor pal shut your pie hole cause you are really making you're self look stupid here
KOG don't even bother with the trolls this morning. Just because it didn't happen with Emily or TD8 doesn't mean it can't happen with 97L. It has the MJO in it's favor.
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3030. Grothar
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i expect 97 to go to 40 percent 98 to 50 maybe 60 percent


Hey, KEEP. When do you think this dry air will start moving out? Looks like a little struggle there for a bit.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25308
Quoting WxLogic:
06Z NGP Well... another.
screw the NOGAPS, unless you are a certain shower curtain sponser :)
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Quoting scott39:
Thanks Keeper, I got a good taste of hurricane Fredric in 1979 and many more since on the Gulf Coast. So I stay prepared no matter where a model is striking. What I am concrened about however, is that most of the peopla people in the path of 97L maybe have let thier guard down. This would be due to the fact that they havent seen a potential TC like this in a few seasons.
That the "Won't happen to me folks" and there is nothing we can do. Just stay out of the stores when they realize "yes it does happen to you".
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3027. 3211976
97L is very different from 93L.

First, at this time 93L never had a low level circulation it only had a slight wind shift,but 97L has a much better low level circulation

Second, at this time 93L didn't have a good low pressure to work with, it was 1012mb at best,but 97L has a very low pressure of 1006 mb for a tropical wave measured by the buy last hour.
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3026. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
i expect 97 to go to 40 percent 98 to 50 maybe 60 percent
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
3025. WxLogic
06Z NGP Well... another.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

Yes!!!!!
Beer is a requirement. And Cat5...anyone who takes the time to pose with the dog is cool in my book. I have a 10 year old Jack-Russell and 1 year Jack/Dalmation mix. It's them I worry about during storms, not myself! I'm on the Jersey Shore, in Seaside Heights, yes home of that show, and if some of the models are right, we could see our first hurricane force winds since 1999, when we had Floyd. His winds were only at 70 when he hit, but there were higher gusts. I just don't know. This could be anyone's storm.
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Quoting goldenpixie1:
Good morning all!

Are TD8 and 93 one and the same?



no 93L got upgrade too TD8
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
nobody knows where this is going or what its to become nobody but we must allow models to guide us to the fact that a storm is coming and its possible to be quite a powerful system as we get closer to the event

wait watch see


Good morning bloggers. True last night was Texas LA border now is back to Florida. Not formed but it got a Orange circle by the NHC. As it progresses we'll get a better ideada as to where is it going. I enpect for something mayor to threat somewhere between TX to North FL.
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3021. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


poss T.C.F.A. on 97 just issued and 98 issued at 2 am
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
3020. scott39
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
actually the models depict a track across the southern end of the islands offshore from PR across haiti/dom offshore then across cuba off shore over isle of youth and the very flat swampy western end of cuba as it makes its entrance into the gulf to ignore what models are showing as a final destination would only make you a fool thats ill prepared
Thanks Keeper, I got a good taste of hurricane Fredric in 1979 and many more since on the Gulf Coast. So I stay prepared no matter where a model is striking. What I am concrened about however, is that most of the peopla people in the path of 97L maybe have let thier guard down. This would be due to the fact that they havent seen a potential TC like this in a few seasons.
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Quoting thewildhourlychanges:
well i have been 100% right on every storm track and intensity forcast so far this year

Request authorization to use Poof Bomb........
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Wow, just doesn't seem right after the trek it takes to get there....is that a stall and strengthen?


Quoting Grothar:
GFS 006Z



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3017. Grothar
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25308
GFS continues to bring 97L bearing down on Florida. Definately the one to watch. If it gets into the GOM we might have our first hurricane threatening the U.S coast. If it tracks towards Bahamas I think it will shoot N and get picked up by that strong trough missing the U.S. Looks like some nail biting is in store for next week.
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and 1 and 2 and....POOOOOF!!

Quoting thewildhourly.....POOF
well i have been 100% right on every storm track and intensity forcast so far this year
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3014. Grothar
GFS 006Z



Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25308
Good morning all!

Are TD8 and 93 one and the same?
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Well, as much as I'd prefer to stay home today, my little five year olds will be waiting for me at school. I'm sure a lot will change by the time I get home tonight. Wishing everyone a go-by-fast Friday!
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3010. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
nobody knows where this is going or what its to become nobody but we must allow models to guide us to the fact that a storm is coming and its possible to be quite a powerful system as we get closer to the event

wait watch see
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
3009. Grothar
Even if 97L hits South Florida, I don't have to worry that it will be on my doorstep. My doorstep faces West.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25308
Crown weather....

Invest 97L Located 1100 Miles East Of The Lesser Antilles:
Morning satellite imagery indicated somewhat of an increase in convection with Invest 97L, which is located about 1100 miles to the east of the Lesser Antilles. It appears that this increase in convection is due to that the atmosphere is starting to moisten up around 97L and that it is starting to encounter warmer ocean waters of 29 Degrees Celsius or 84 Degrees Fahrenheit. I fully expect this disturbance to continue organizing, especially once it gets west of 50 and 55 West Longitude. Upper level conditions are favorable and it will be encountering even warmer sea surface temperatures of near 30 Degrees Celsius or 86 Degrees Fahrenheit as it tracks west of 50 and 55 West Longitude.

I do not expect 97L to develop into a tropical depression today, however, it is quite possible that this system will become a tropical depression on Saturday and there is a even higher likelihood of it being upgraded to a tropical depression on Sunday.

The operational model guidance consisting of the GFS, Canadian and European model guidance are all in very good agreement with a track forecast for the next three to four days. It is looking likely that 97L will track into the Caribbean later Sunday after affecting the Lesser Antilles and Barbados with possible tropical storm conditions on Saturday night into Sunday. Once this system gets to a point just south of Hispaniola on Tuesday, the operational guidance diverges greatly with the GFS model forecasting an eventual landfall on the central and eastern US Gulf Coast. The European model forecasts a serious hit along the entire US East Coast from Miami to potentially Philadelphia, New York City and southern New England. The Canadian model is slightly further east than the European model and forecasts a pretty serious hit on the US Southeast coast from eastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states.

The ensemble model guidance of the GFS, European and even the Canadian models are “interesting” as they all pretty much agree with each other. The ensemble guidance is pointing to a scenario that has 97L tracking across the central and northern part of the Caribbean from Monday to Thursday of next week and for this system to track across central or western Cuba around next Friday. Once we get into next weekend, the average of all of the ensemble model guidance members suggests a track across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and an impact into the Florida Panhandle next Sunday. It should be pointed out that the ensemble spread, which basically means a larger area of possibilities, stretch from the upper Texas coast all the way eastward to the North Carolina coast.

It is way too early to make an accurate prediction on where this system may impact the US coastline, however, the overall pattern strongly suggests a very worrisome scenario of an approaching potential hurricane impacting somewhere on the US Gulf coast or the US Southeast coast next weekend. As for the Caribbean, it seems quite possible that a strengthening tropical storm or hurricane will be tracking west-northwestward across the Caribbean next week with potential impacts felt in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and possibly the Yucatan Peninsula.

I would like to urge all of our Crown Weather friends across the Caribbean, the Gulf coast and the US Southeast coast to closely monitor this system and continue to make preparations as you normally would as we enter the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I will be monitoring Invest 97L very closely this weekend and I will keep you all updated
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3005. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting thewildhourlychanges:
who will be right about 97? will it be nothing at all or will it be a small ts and head towards belize i think it falls a apart to much dry air and shear just another emily start stop start stop then poof
do me a favor pal shut your pie hole cause you are really making you're self look stupid here
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
evryone say 97L looks bad, another emily. Well, it does look bad as of now which is to be expected as depicted in the models also. 97L is not going to look any better until it passes 50W with much warmer SST's. Givin the enviroment it will be passing through in the coming days, intensification should be steady. Once it's clear of any obsticals (Islands) all bets are off with this system. A major Hurricane is indeed a real solution with 97L as it nears the CONUS, whether it be the gulf or the SE coast. IMO
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3001. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting scott39:
Do you see 97L staying that intact over the Islands before the SE coast or GOM?
actually the models depict a track across the southern end of the islands offshore from PR across haiti/dom offshore then across cuba off shore over isle of youth and the very flat swampy western end of cuba as it makes its entrance into the gulf to ignore what models are showing as a final destination would only make you a fool thats ill prepared
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
2999. WxLogic
Quoting Chucktown:
Also, somewhere along the way, 97 is going to be impacted by the large upper level low you see here just north of Puerto Rico. It may have a tendency to "tug" 97 a little more north initially, but it also may have some detrimental impacts to its development with some increased shear. The models do not handle shear issues very well, especially when it due to an upper level low. I just see a lot of obstacles for 97 over the next few days, still way to early of course, but I just don't see this system really getting going until it can tap into the western Caribbean or eastern Gulf if the current track trends hold.


Link


There's a very good chance (based on discerning eyes) that the ULL could actually split into 2 the Upper portion which is the one you see ESE/SE of Bermuda and another piece NE of Hispanola / NW PR.

If this split were to happen then shear would decrease substantially from what it already has and allow a further progression to the W of the SAL/Dry Air moving in tandem with 97L and the departing ULL as one piece heads N past Bermuda (to the E/NE) and once pieces move W in the wake of TD#8 / TS Henry (possibly).
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2996. scott39
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



06Z vort run
Do you see 97L staying that intact over the Islands before the SE coast or GOM?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.