Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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Not funny!!!
img src="map wnd day10 3usse enus 440x297 1">

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Remember, the wave is gonna look its best right now as we have just peaked at Dmax - expect the convection to wane somewhat over the next several hours.
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Quoting barotropic:


A Major hurricane is always possible in late August. I dont think its any more likely with this system than it would be with any other sytem in late August at this point anyway. As a matter of fact considering the season so far and its oddities, I would lean towards it not being a major. I think your comment "is indeed a real solution" holds about as much weight as the opposite. The fact that this may have to cross the islands is huge. Cleo 1964 was a killer hurricane and struggled to reach cat 2 status while hitting South florida and going up the coast. David...a powerful cat 5 hurricane killing 2000 plus people fell apart while crossing the islands and skirting within 75 miles of SE Florida hardly causing a rain shower. David never remotely approached what it was while skirting along the coast. Way way to early to suggest a major. Many many examples to the contrary.


Slight correction. David did NOT skirt the coast. David came ashore around Hobe Sound, Florida. I lived in Stuart and the eye passed over my house. The radio kept saying it was "just offshore of West Palm Beach" for several hours. Actually, the NHC tracking instruments had a glitch of some kind, and they totally lost the storm. My favorite of the whole thing was when it was located, it was found by a Sheriff deputy driving on US 1 telling command center that he was driving in the eye..no rain, no wind, perfect calm. The eye passed over my house about 30 minutes later. Fortunately, technology is much better today. It was just some wind and rain. Been through much worse before and after.
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Quoting pottery:

NOW would be good....
There is lots to do!
:):))


On the way...
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Quoting mcluvincane:
Link

It's time to get cranking


97L gonna start rockin' today!
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Quoting scott39:
How many days out are we from a possible Islands strike, and then a possible US strike from 97L?


If you look at the tracking map...each dot (from each model) represents 12 hours...count the dots...that is the easiest way for me to do it :)
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3650
3088. scott39
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning.
Looking at 97L and hoping that it begins to drift more North soon.
Just being a little selfish here but I have a big outdoor party here on Sat. and the only one that is NOT invited is the Rain!

I would really appreciate it, if you guys can NorthCast this thing away from me.
Thanks!
Wheres Ike when you need him. He was the best shield ever last year! Another problem is there is not enough of them :)
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3087. pottery
Quoting barotropic:


Send an email to Ike.....he will get er done!

heheheheheh

'Morning IKE!
I have a Storm for you....
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Quoting reedzone:
Hurricane Center NAVY has 97Ls coordinates at 13.5N and 44.2W .. I see absolutely NOTHING there.. The circulation looks to be forming more northwest towards 14N and 48.2W


They have that analyzed too far east, but I'm in agreement with the latitude....watch the cloud deck carefully.
Link
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3085. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
98L up to 50%.
98l 10 percent away from T.C.F.A. and 97 is up to 40 percent 20 percent away from T.C.F.A.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53809
3084. pottery
Quoting presslord:


What time shall I arrive?!

NOW would be good....
There is lots to do!
:):))
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 191159
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHT...LOCATED ABOUT 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF CABO GRACIAS
ON THE HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS
THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 MPH.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED
ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA. THE LOW IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS
IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/STEWART
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3082. WxLogic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 191159
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHT...LOCATED ABOUT 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF CABO GRACIAS
ON THE HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS
THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 MPH.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED
ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA. THE LOW IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS
IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/STEWART
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4972
Quoting reedzone:
Looks like a major center relocation is in order. Seems dry air has killed the old center which was around 41W and now a new center is developing right where the swirl of convection is.. at least to me.. around 48W and 14N


I'm expecting 97L to finally start organizing today and a TD by Sunday, or as early as tomorrow. Would like to remind you all at if it stays north of the islands, in which I have a feeling it may, a major Hurricane can still develop in short time, doesn't have to be all the way near the Cape Verdes to be a powerful storm.. Check this storm out..



Hurricane Floyd in the second pic?
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3080. Grothar
Quoting scott39:
Good, Im still waking up and realized that I am not in Fl, and my back door faces to the N. I feel better now. Thanks for the tip.


Well, if it is any help, when a storm approaches from the West, the worst winds first come from the North, the it switches. :)
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Quoting pottery:
Good Morning.
Looking at 97L and hoping that it begins to drift more North soon.
Just being a little selfish here but I have a big outdoor party here on Sat. and the only one that is NOT invited is the Rain!

I would really appreciate it, if you guys can NorthCast this thing away from me.
Thanks!


Send an email to Ike.....he will get er done!
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3078. WxLogic
Quoting scott39:
Is it coming to the same conclusion as far as strength of 97L?


It it more realistic in my opinion in regards strength which any model is not good at anyway, but NGP sure looks better intensity wise since you don't see it becoming this monster storm quickly after interacting with land masses.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4972
Time: 11:40:30Z
Coordinates: 14.9667N 81.95W
Acft. Static Air Press: 634.6 mb (~ 18.74 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,962 meters (~ 12,999 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1011.8 mb (~ 29.88 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 204° at 22 knots (From the SSW at ~ 25.3 mph)
Air Temp: 3.8°C (~ 38.8°F)
Dew Pt: 0.8°C (~ 33.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 23 knots (~ 26.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
(*) Denotes suspect data
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning.
Looking at 97L and hoping that it begins to drift more North soon.
Just being a little selfish here but I have a big outdoor party here on Sat. and the only one that is NOT invited is the Rain!

I would really appreciate it, if you guys can NorthCast this thing away from me.
Thanks!


What time shall I arrive?!
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98L up to 50%. 97L up to 40%.
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3074. MahFL
The NHC has 97L depicted as the wave itself and part of the ITZ. Surely the actual storm will form from the wave at 15 N, and not the ITZ ?
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Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 11:48Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Tropical Depression: Number 8 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 08

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Friday, 11:45Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 15.0N 82.2W
Location: 302 miles (487 km) to the S (190°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 1,530 meters
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 17°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 16°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
850 mb Surface Altitude: 1,490 geopotential meters

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind Direction: Bearing was unavailable.
Estimated Surface Wind Speed: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph)

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 7 knots (~ 8.1mph)

HHs approaching td#8
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
3072. scott39
How many days out are we from a possible Islands strike, and then a possible US strike from 97L?
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Quoting Grothar:



Now is East End on the west part of the island or is West Bay on the East. I remember you explained it last year, but I am still confused.
Da man makea da jokes. East End is on the SE coast and West Bay is the western tip of the island. South Sound(kman and Stormpetrol)is on the South Central coast.
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3070. pottery
Good Morning.
Looking at 97L and hoping that it begins to drift more North soon.
Just being a little selfish here but I have a big outdoor party here on Sat. and the only one that is NOT invited is the Rain!

I would really appreciate it, if you guys can NorthCast this thing away from me.
Thanks!
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3069. MahFL
TD8 looks like its moving WNW.
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3068. scott39
Quoting WxLogic:


Hello... yeah NGP had been pretty stubborn at not doing anything with 97L, but now is a different story.
Is it coming to the same conclusion as far as strength of 97L?
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New EPAC invest:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep912011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108191145
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 91, 2011, DB, O, 2011081912, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP912011
EP, 91, 2011081912, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1000W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13526
Hurricane Center NAVY has 97Ls coordinates at 13.5N and 44.2W .. I see absolutely NOTHING there.. The circulation looks to be forming more northwest towards 14N and 48.2W
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3065. DeMango
Quoting yonzabam:



And you have been a member on here since, erm . . . yesterday.

That makes you all the more amazing, imo.


Not another version of Jason?
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3064. WxLogic
Quoting whepton3:


Morning Logic..

Chalk another model up to the 97L fan club.

Boy, for S. FL that's a pretty ominous solution.


Hello... yeah NGP had been pretty stubborn at not doing anything with 97L, but now is a different story.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4972
Quoting thewildhourlychanges:
well i have been 100% right on every storm track and intensity forcast so far this year


I too have been 100% correct. How? Easy, I dont know enough to know how these storms work so I don't make uninformed gusses! I just wait and listen to those that do know enough.

Some how I dont think you are one of them or you would not have to say so yourself, just ask Levi...
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3062. scott39
Quoting Grothar:


My first laugh of the day. LOL Never thought about that.
Good, Im still waking up and realized that I am not in Fl, and my back door faces to the N. I feel better now. Thanks for the tip.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
do me a favor pal shut your pie hole cause you are really making you're self look stupid here


Good morning, Keeper. Things are heating up, so I will remind you (and everyone) of the "unwritten" rules..
1. Do NOT feed the trolls.
2. Do NOT quote the trolls..it only stirs them up.
3. Ignore the trolls...either by not responding or hitting "ignore" button then poof. Either solution, they WILL go away eventually.
4. Do NOT let the trolls upset you. There are tooooo many of them, especially when tropics ramp up.

These rules took me some time to learn and I still fall into their baiting tactics every now and then because of the idiotic or rude comments. IF there are additional rules, you all feel free to share.

Have a great day. Let's have some speculating, informative and enjoyable tropic tracking. And you all in the islands, please stay safe. The rest of us are just watching and waiting and PREPARING.
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Link

It's time to get cranking
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Looks like a major center relocation is in order. Seems dry air has killed the old center which was around 41W and now a new center is developing right where the swirl of convection is.. at least to me.. around 48W and 14N


I'm expecting 97L to finally start organizing today and a TD by Sunday, or as early as tomorrow. Would like to remind you all at if it stays north of the islands, in which I have a feeling it may, a major Hurricane can still develop in short time, doesn't have to be all the way near the Cape Verdes to be a powerful storm.. Check this storm out..

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Quoting mcluvincane:
evryone say 97L looks bad, another emily. Well, it does look bad as of now which is to be expected as depicted in the models also. 97L is not going to look any better until it passes 50W with much warmer SST's. Givin the enviroment it will be passing through in the coming days, intensification should be steady. Once it's clear of any obsticals (Islands) all bets are off with this system. A major Hurricane is indeed a real solution with 97L as it nears the CONUS, whether it be the gulf or the SE coast. IMO


A Major hurricane is always possible in late August. I dont think its any more likely with this system than it would be with any other sytem in late August at this point anyway. As a matter of fact considering the season so far and its oddities, I would lean towards it not being a major. I think your comment "is indeed a real solution" holds about as much weight as the opposite. The fact that this may have to cross the islands is huge. Cleo 1964 was a killer hurricane and struggled to reach cat 2 status while hitting South florida and going up the coast. David...a powerful cat 5 hurricane killing 2000 plus people fell apart while crossing the islands and skirting within 75 miles of SE Florida hardly causing a rain shower. David never remotely approached what it was while skirting along the coast. Way way to early to suggest a major. Many many examples to the contrary.
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3057. Grothar
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning. Are you in Cayman ?



EDIT: Looked at your avatar and saw West Bay. I am in East End and many more on here from all over the island.



Now is East End on the west part of the island or is West Bay on the East. I remember you explained it last year, but I am still confused.
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3056. scott39
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Ok, So that looks like it will cover from Texas to the Islands, all the way to New York. It also looks like there is no need for Walmart.
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3055. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
TWOAT running late
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53809
3054. Grothar
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
actually it should move in tandem and disperse as the enity aproaches northern islands later tonight early saturday morning


I concur.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


+100
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3052. Grothar
Quoting scott39:
Thanks for that info for safety, but what if you have a wall facing W? Just stand there:)


My first laugh of the day. LOL Never thought about that.
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3051. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Authorization approved. It's a go.


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53809
3050. Grothar
Quoting scott39:
Whats up Groth. These longterm models seem to be getting less entertaining, and more of a reality that 97L needs to go away.


Hey, scott, morning guys. Looks like something to watch.
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Quoting HuracanKY:


The estimated location where a center might develop is almost the same latitude as Barbados, and currently moving west.

Many seasons that I've watched threats roll into the Caribbean and I have noticed that often times the models have these systems passing just north of the Leewards...and this often ends up not happening. I wouldn't be surprisd to see the models continue to shift south in the short term. I can only assume that often times the models forecast for faster intensification and make a stronger system, which gains latitude more quickly.
Good morning. Are you in Cayman ?



EDIT: Looked at your avatar and saw West Bay. I am in East End and many more on here from all over the island.
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3048. scott39
Quoting Grothar:
Even if 97L hits South Florida, I don't have to worry that it will be on my doorstep. My doorstep faces West.

Thanks for that info for safety, but what if you have a wall facing W? Just stand there:)
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Quoting whepton3:


Morning Logic..

Chalk another model up to the 97L fan club.

Boy, for S. FL that's a pretty ominous solution.


Yeah...that's the kind of scenario that will require maximum shower curtain protection!!!
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Convection on the increase... I think 97L is saying it's time to start showing myself

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.