Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grothar:


If you tell me due South of West End, I am out of here. :)
You're good to hang around a while - we just better hope that the poles never reverse else we'll never know where we are ;-)
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:



97L firing off convection pretty good this morning. Looks like it just needs to build some to the SE of the LLC.


All 97L needs is for Saturday to get here.
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Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:

Thanks, I have been glued to the WU site this year since April! The season started too early for me. I mostly lurk and learn. You guys are the best.
Oh, spooky calm eye for me was Jeanne. Had to walk the dog, and the air was so still, and so heavy and ominous feeling. Made him do his business and went right back inside. Nest door neighbors were busy boarding up another neighbors broken window and I sent a silent prayer that they got back inside before the backside of the storm hit. Funky atmosphere! Gave me the willies!

Calm of the eye for me? Georges...Key West....We walked outside with the dogs, across the street to the hurricane grotto built in the early 1900's by the St Mary's catholic church to keep away strong canes. Most of the candles were still lit. George's eye was messy. we could just see a few patches of blue sky. the storm held a 105 mph wind and stalled over us for awhile.
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Quoting presslord:
OK...this is never a popular thing to mention...but I'm takin' the day off...and feel like stirin' it up a bit...

There is an undeniable upside to a land falling major hurricane in the US.

It creates tremendous economic activity and opportunity.

In light of the fact that we're in the worst economy most of us have ever seen....it's worth considering.


hey ya press...we are actually heading to Edisto for the weekend ourselves...on the bright side...my hub's elelctrical business is doing pretty good in the economy...even doing new houses even if they are on Kiawah and Seabrook...hoping it is a sign that things will finally be on the upswing
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One of the scarier aspects of 97L is how big the low-level swirl is in relation to the current convection. That argues for a really large windfield if this thing really starts ramping up. Not good, but interesting.
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Quoting Cayman2010:
I think it's more that some only comment sporadically, but are still here. Ironically I used to look in on the site whilst I was back in the UK - long before I even thought of moving here.
At least we have a good alternative to CITN. If we go by them a storm would have passed two days before they tell us its coming.
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Time: 12:13:00Z
Coordinates: 15.9667N 83.2833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.2 mb (~ 24.90 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,526 meters (~ 5,007 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1003.9 mb (~ 29.65 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 239° at 4 knots (From the WSW at ~ 4.6 mph)
Air Temp: 18.1°C (~ 64.6°F)
Dew Pt: 17.0°C (~ 62.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 27 knots* (~ 31.0 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr* (~ 0 in/hr*)

Probably the center, I think they will find it about 30-40 miles further north than thought
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3138. scott39
Quoting tiggeriffic:
I think i am going to take full advantage of my ice maker this year...gonna empty it every chance i get into gallon zip lock bags and put em in my big freezer...if a storm doesn't hit here...i got em for fishing and camping...if one does...i have lots of ice...and also gonna start saving the juice jugs from the preschool...fill em, freeze em...here is a tidbit i did learn tho about meat in your freezer...if you know a storm is emminent in your area...take one day and cook all the meat then refreeze...cooked meat will last longer than raw meat...and if you loose power, you may not have means to cook the food... that is just an FYI
Im going to hold off on buying any more meat for now. Thanks for the ideas.
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OK...this is never a popular thing to mention...but I'm takin' the day off...and feel like stirin' it up a bit...

There is an undeniable upside to a land falling major hurricane in the US.

It creates tremendous economic activity and opportunity.

In light of the fact that we're in the worst economy most of us have ever seen....it's worth considering.
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Quoting Grothar:


If you tell me due South of West End, I am out of here. :)
LOL. Actually it is SW of West End since West End is in the Brac.
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Quoting yesterway:


You cannot hotlink from aevans FSU site, he does not like his products redistributed.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I think about 10-12 but most only come on sporadically.I look forward to kmanislander's take on any approaching system. Waaaaaaaaay better than JF who is just a parrot.
I think it's more that some only comment sporadically, but are still here. Ironically I used to look in on the site whilst I was back in the UK - long before I even thought of moving here.
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3133. Grothar
Quoting Cayman2010:

Yes, we're really imaginative on the names - guess where North Side is?!


If you tell me due South of West End, I am out of here. :)
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97L firing off convection pretty good this morning. Looks like it just needs to build some to the SE of the LLC.
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TD 08 1003.5

121430 1602N 08321W 8429 01526 0035 +184 +168 040014 015 020 001 00
121500 1603N 08322W 8428 01528 0039 +179 +175 041015 015 018 000 00
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3130. Grothar
Quoting yesterway:


Here you go yesterway. Is this what you wanted to post.

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I think i am going to take full advantage of my ice maker this year...gonna empty it every chance i get into gallon zip lock bags and put em in my big freezer...if a storm doesn't hit here...i got em for fishing and camping...if one does...i have lots of ice...and also gonna start saving the juice jugs from the preschool...fill em, freeze em...here is a tidbit i did learn tho about meat in your freezer...if you know a storm is emminent in your area...take one day and cook all the meat then refreeze...cooked meat will last longer than raw meat...and if you loose power, you may not have means to cook the food... that is just an FYI
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Quoting Grothar:


That clears that up! I know you have seen this before, but I am sending you a little WU video. Might give you a good laugh.

Yes, we're really imaginative on the names - guess where North Side is?!
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Quoting barotropic:


By the way, its funny you bring that up because I now recall that location issue. I believe that the NHC had ceased sending in recon cause it was so close to land (the coast). Their radar malfunctioned and I remember in the morning hearing that the a local sheriffs office had relayed information suggesting where the eye went ashore. Pretty neat that u remembered that unusual situation!

Easy to remember. The storm was supposed to offshore, and we were supposed to be in the clear. Scary moment when we learned that we were in the path. Fortunately a small storm. My ex-husband's first hurricane (he paced the house the whole time) and a 2 year old who finally slept for 30 minutes ONLY when the eye passed overhead! Crazy storm I will not forget. Of course, I will not forget Frances, Jeanne and Wilma for lots of other reasons!
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Quoting Grothar:


That clears that up! I know you have seen this before, but I am sending you a little WU video. Might give you a good laugh.
Thanks.
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There's a blob at 35W 5N which is being ignored. Although it would seem to be too far south, it does look 'ripe'.


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Quoting Cayman2010:

Quite a few - but as we are often in or close to the path of quite a few TC's that's not really suprising.


You're right about that. Since Ivan I'm a regular on here...but lurk more often than I post.
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OT: My paid membership expired and now I can't find the link to re-up it. Can someone help me out?
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Is 8 going to go away today or is going to slide along the coast?
Member Since: August 3, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 52
HH have found 41 mph winds in TD8 so far. Lowest pressure 1006 mb.
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Quoting Cayman2010:

Quite a few - but as we are often in or close to the path of quite a few TC's that's not really suprising.


Was in the Caymans in December... great place... great people.

Often in the cross hairs this time of year.
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3118. Grothar
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Da man makea da jokes. East End is on the SE coast and West Bay is the western tip of the island. South Sound(kman and Stormpetrol)is on the South Central coast.


That clears that up! I know you have seen this before, but I am sending you a little WU video. Might give you a good laugh.
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Time: 12:02:00Z
Coordinates: 15.4667N 82.95W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.2 mb (~ 24.90 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,558 meters (~ 5,112 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1008.9 mb (~ 29.79 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 254° at 12 knots (From the WSW at ~ 13.8 mph)
Air Temp: 16.5°C* (~ 61.7°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 12 knots (~ 13.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 24 knots (~ 27.6 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (~ 0.12 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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Quoting HuracanKY:


Geez, how many people in here are from Cayman?! Seems like half the blog sometimes. Lol.

Quite a few - but as we are often in or close to the path of quite a few TC's that's not really suprising.
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Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:


Slight correction. David did NOT skirt the coast. David came ashore around Hobe Sound, Florida. I lived in Stuart and the eye passed over my house. The radio kept saying it was "just offshore of West Palm Beach" for several hours. Actually, the NHC tracking instruments had a glitch of some kind, and they totally lost the storm. My favorite of the whole thing was when it was located, it was found by a Sheriff deputy driving on US 1 telling command center that he was driving in the eye..no rain, no wind, perfect calm. The eye passed over my house about 30 minutes later. Fortunately, technology is much better today. It was just some wind and rain. Been through much worse before and after.


By the way, its funny you bring that up because I now recall that location issue. I believe that the NHC had ceased sending in recon cause it was so close to land (the coast). Their radar malfunctioned and I remember in the morning hearing that the a local sheriffs office had relayed information suggesting where the eye went ashore. Pretty neat that u remembered that unusual situation!
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Quoting barotropic:


Yes yer right. Actually I live in Broward (lighthouse point), so I was refering to David as his track and effect related to my location. Good luck up there! I hope we dont have to worry about any major storm issues!

Thanks, I have been glued to the WU site this year since April! The season started too early for me. I mostly lurk and learn. You guys are the best.
Oh, spooky calm eye for me was Jeanne. Had to walk the dog, and the air was so still, and so heavy and ominous feeling. Made him do his business and went right back inside. Nest door neighbors were busy boarding up another neighbors broken window and I sent a silent prayer that they got back inside before the backside of the storm hit. Funky atmosphere! Gave me the willies!
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3113. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
The formation of tropical cyclones is the topic of extensive ongoing research and is still not fully understood. While six factors appear to be generally necessary, tropical cyclones may occasionally form without meeting all of the following conditions. In most situations, water temperatures of at least 26.5 °C (79.7 °F) are needed down to a depth of at least 50 metres (160 ft); waters of this temperature cause the overlying atmosphere to be unstable enough to sustain convection and thunderstorms. Another factor is rapid cooling with height, which allows the release of the heat of condensation that powers a tropical cyclone.High humidity is needed, especially in the lower-to-mid troposphere; when there is a great deal of moisture in the atmosphere, conditions are more favorable for disturbances to develop. Low amounts of wind shear are needed, as high shear is disruptive to the storm's circulation. Tropical cyclones generally need to form more than 555 kilometres (345 mi) or 5 degrees of latitude away from the equator, allowing the Coriolis effect to deflect winds blowing towards the low pressure center and creating a circulation. Lastly, a formative tropical cyclone needs a pre-existing system of disturbed weather, although without a circulation no cyclonic development will take place.
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Quoting presslord:


the weather at Marion Square yesterday was lovely


I can only imagine !! Sorry about the showers, but aren't we supposed to be wrong. LOL
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3110. scott39
Quoting tiggeriffic:


If you look at the tracking map...each dot (from each model) represents 12 hours...count the dots...that is the easiest way for me to do it :)
Thanks.
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Link

Water temps go up to 31 C in front of 97L as it approaches the mid Caribbean. Say up to 50% next TWO maybe?
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Quoting HuracanKY:


Geez, how many people in here are from Cayman?! Seems like half the blog sometimes. Lol.
I think about 10-12 but most only come on sporadically.I look forward to kmanislander's take on any approaching system. Waaaaaaaaay better than JF who is just a parrot.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Da man makea da jokes. East End is on the SE coast and West Bay is the western tip of the island. South Sound(kman and Stormpetrol)is on the South Central coast.


Geez, how many people in here are from Cayman?! Seems like half the blog sometimes. Lol.
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3106. scott39
Ok, These Models are not funny anymore! Every one in your head and in a whisper chant...fish storm...fish storm....fish storm. Where the heak is IKE, he is a Ghost TC whisperer.
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Who knew! It looks like TD8 will possibly not get a name and 98L would become Harvey (the invisible whiIte rabbit- cue picture) and 97L becomes Irene. It's a possibility.
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Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:


Slight correction. David did NOT skirt the coast. David came ashore around Hobe Sound, Florida. I lived in Stuart and the eye passed over my house. The radio kept saying it was "just offshore of West Palm Beach" for several hours. Actually, the NHC tracking instruments had a glitch of some kind, and they totally lost the storm. My favorite of the whole thing was when it was located, it was found by a Sheriff deputy driving on US 1 telling command center that he was driving in the eye..no rain, no wind, perfect calm. The eye passed over my house about 30 minutes later. Fortunately, technology is much better today. It was just some wind and rain. Been through much worse before and after.


Yes yer right. Actually I live in Broward (lighthouse point), so I was refering to David as his track and effect related to my location. Good luck up there! I hope we dont have to worry about any major storm issues!
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Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:


Slight correction. David did NOT skirt the coast. David came ashore around Hobe Sound, Florida. I lived in Stuart and the eye passed over my house. The radio kept saying it was "just offshore of West Palm Beach" for several hours. Actually, the NHC tracking instruments had a glitch of some kind, and they totally lost the storm. My favorite of the whole thing was when it was located, it was found by a Sheriff deputy driving on US 1 telling command center that he was driving in the eye..no rain, no wind, perfect calm. The eye passed over my house about 30 minutes later. Fortunately, technology is much better today. It was just some wind and rain. Been through much worse before and after.


went thru Hugo...the eye was the creepiest thing i had ever seen in my life...from raging winds to dead calm in what seemed like just a few seconds at the time...almost as if the world had ended...then just when i got comfortable with the calm...all heck broke loose again....CREEPY!
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n/a
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Quoting Chucktown:
Remember, the wave is gonna look its best right now as we have just peaked at Dmax - expect the convection to wane somewhat over the next several hours.


the weather at Marion Square yesterday was lovely
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3099. pottery
Quoting presslord:


On the way...

Bring your own Cooler.....
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3098. HCW
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3097. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Not funny!!!
img src="map wnd day10 3usse enus 440x297 1">

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.