Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MahFL:


Does it have a LLC yet ?



Yes.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
This is from the HH decoded data:

46.3 knots (~ 53.2 mph)
Tropical Storm


This is extrapolated to the surfact, or at flight level?
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Quoting presslord:


hardly nonsensical....reconstruction from Hugo in Charleston went a long way to mitigate the economic impact of the loss of the naval base....


The economic gain made by some due to disasters does not balance the losses suffered by others.

These losses are not just the immediate losses caused by physical destruction of property, but also future losses due to higher insurance costs, people and businesses relocating to other areas etc.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

I don't think press is saying it's good or wished for; he's just pointing out one obvious and definite silver lining. I know in South Florida, western Broward County was growing only sluggishly until August, 1992; after Andrew the area went through a massive growth spurt spurred on almost entirely by the need to rebuild and relocate.

One of my biggest clients is a very large roofing company. No one there wants a storm to hit--but they are prepared for the possibility that if/when it does happen, they'll be busier than they've been since Wilma came through.

It's just accepting reality, that's all...


Broward County's gain was South Dade's loss.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11154
Quoting utilaeastwind:


watcher... does it look to you that Cindy is slowing it's west movement?
Cindy ? Or Harvey if it is named ? Looks like it is. I am wondering if the strengthening will cause it to move more WNW.
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From the HHs data I've seen so far this will probably upgraded to 45-50mph TS Harvey at 11 est., jmo.
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I think Tropical Depression #8 will be Tropical Storm Harvey at 11AM.

Expect a code red at 2PM IMO...
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000
URNT12 KNHC 191232
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082011
A. 19/12:13:30Z
B. 15 deg 59 min N
083 deg 18 min W
C. 850 mb 1457 m
D. 30 kt
E. 144 deg 51 nm
F. 221 deg 20 kt
G. 136 deg 17 nm
H. 1004 mb
I. 16 C / 1525 m
J. 18 C / 1521 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0308A CYCLONE OB 09
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 32 KT NW QUAD 12:21:00Z
;

Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11154
3186. MahFL
Quoting stormwatcherCI:



97L firing off convection pretty good this morning. Looks like it just needs to build some to the SE of the LLC.


Does it have a LLC yet ?
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Well if Reed is right,and the center is at 14n and 48w.Well lets see, its moving 20mph due west 270 degrees,it would have to start taking a sharp northerly component pretty soon to end up north of the islands.At the current speed and heading it will be at 60w by 7pm tommorrow night and still below 15 north.It really looks like 1)a Georges track,2)a gustav track,3)ivan track.4)fredrick track.5)a Lili or isadore track.Floyd went north of the islands then turned back west,then gradually went wnw,nw then north off the east coast of florida.In summary this still is late August Not sept.A trough that strong is very sketchy.I remeber the same thing being said about Georges about a Through.That did not materialize.In summary Reed imho unfornately for the gulfcoast i think its 1 of those 5 scenarios I listed above.Good day.
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Advantageous shear set up for 97L.
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Quoting yonzabam:



That's just nonsensical. Just because GDP rises as a result of disasters due to the costs of reconstruction, doesn't mean that this is a positive thing. Would a global nuclear war be good for the global economy?

I don't think press is saying it's good or wished for; he's just pointing out one obvious and definite silver lining. I know in South Florida, western Broward County was growing only sluggishly until August, 1992; after Andrew the area went through a massive growth spurt spurred on almost entirely by the need to rebuild and relocate.

One of my biggest clients is a very large roofing company. No one there wants a storm to hit--but they are prepared for the possibility that if/when it does happen, they'll be busier than they've been since Wilma came through.

It's just accepting reality, that's all...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
This is from the HH decoded data:

46.3 knots (~ 53.2 mph)
Tropical Storm


watcher... does it look to you that Cindy is slowing it's west movement?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This weekend is a good time to go over the hurricane supplies. I have most of everything, but just want to make sure I am not missing anything.
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Quoting yonzabam:



That's just nonsensical. Just because GDP rises as a result of disasters due to the costs of reconstruction, doesn't mean that this is a positive thing. Would a global nuclear war be good for the global economy?


unfortunately he is correct...the building industry which is down would skyrocket putting thousands back to work, the retail would boom for supplies, the utilities would boom due to repairs, etc...when people have more money, they spend more money...it is an economic fact...been there, done that...way back when hugo hit charleston, i worked at one of the only restraunts in N. Chas that was open...we had thousands every day that were eating as we had generators and food...people stood in line for hours waiting for a table...people that didnt know each other shared tables...we worked for 10-12 hours every day...had to have special passes to be on the road after curfew as we closed after dark...it is sad but it is true
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Hurricane David was my first and was stationed at Charleston AFB, SC. Storm was forecasted (local weather) to come over North Charleston. Was on the ride-out team so I sent the wife and newborn to her parents house further inland. They got more of the storm than the bae did.
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


LOL

I feel 90 when Im rolling out of bed and a low pressure system (of any kind) is in town....

Somehow in life I have turned into a human weather station...
I get migraines and my grandson gets very stuffy with his allergies. It was terrible with Ivan that he was even crying because he couldn't breathe good. My grand-daughter was having asthma attacks like crazy during and after he passed.
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3177. Grothar
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Grothar is 900.






Due to the adjustment of the calender in the 1700's I am only 899 and 4 months.
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Quoting presslord:
OK...this is never a popular thing to mention...but I'm takin' the day off...and feel like stirin' it up a bit...

There is an undeniable upside to a land falling major hurricane in the US.

It creates tremendous economic activity and opportunity.

In light of the fact that we're in the worst economy most of us have ever seen....it's worth considering.


We use the same rationale to go to war.
Why not just create good policy to effect the same thing and avoid the death and destruction?
Because we are stuck in a dumb human cycle.
How long will take us to evolve out of this?
Another hundred years?
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Time: 12:20:30Z
Coordinates: 16.2667N 83.5833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.5 mb (~ 24.91 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,538 meters (~ 5,046 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 65° at 27 knots (From the ENE at ~ 31.0 mph)
Air Temp: 14.4°C* (~ 57.9°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 28 knots (~ 32.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 48 knots (~ 55.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 34 mm/hr (~ 1.34 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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98L seems it might be the first cane in the CV Season....
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3173. scott39
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Grothar is 900.



That explains it.
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This is from the HH decoded data:

46.3 knots (~ 53.2 mph)
Tropical Storm
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Quoting presslord:
OK...this is never a popular thing to mention...but I'm takin' the day off...and feel like stirin' it up a bit...

There is an undeniable upside to a land falling major hurricane in the US.

It creates tremendous economic activity and opportunity.

In light of the fact that we're in the worst economy most of us have ever seen....it's worth considering.


Maybe that's why the economies been so bad. We haven't had a US land falling hurricane in 6 years! lol

But seriously that is a good point. If people don't have to pay for storm damage then they just keep their money in their savings account, but if they are forced to put it into the economy to fix their home, etc, then that stored away money doing no good in the bank is now put back into the economy. I like it...
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Quoting presslord:


I heard a fairly notable economist yesterday suggest that the only way out of this is to burn every other house to the ground


He wasn't a one armed economist I hope. Truman had a quote that went something like.... he wanted a one armed economist since every time he got advice from one it was blah..blah..blah, but on the other hand blah..blah..blah.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11154
Quoting presslord:


well.....Grothar....


LOL

I feel 90 when Im rolling out of bed and a low pressure system (of any kind) is in town....

Somehow in life I have turned into a human weather station...
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Quoting belizeit:
I'm older

I'm much older in dog years
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
At least we have a good alternative to CITN. If we go by them a storm would have passed two days before they tell us its coming.
That's if they even mention it :-)
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Quoting yonzabam:



That's just nonsensical. Just because GDP rises as a result of disasters due to the costs of reconstruction, doesn't mean that this is a positive thing. Would a global nuclear war be good for the global economy?


hardly nonsensical....reconstruction from Hugo in Charleston went a long way to mitigate the economic impact of the loss of the naval base....
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Do we have anyone on here older then 90 on this site?
I'm older
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Quoting presslord:


well.....Grothar....


ummm...did he help Charlie Hall write backwards on the weather board?
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48 knots
(~ 55.2 mph)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Why wait for a hurricane then, just start bulldozing a few cities......


I heard a fairly notable economist yesterday suggest that the only way out of this is to burn every other house to the ground
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
One of the scarier aspects of 97L is how big the low-level swirl is in relation to the current convection. That argues for a really large windfield if this thing really starts ramping up. Not good, but interesting.

Yes. There exists a huge amount of rotational energy that will be concentrated and transferred inward once the center gels.
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3159. scott39
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
The formation of tropical cyclones is the topic of extensive ongoing research and is still not fully understood. While six factors appear to be generally necessary, tropical cyclones may occasionally form without meeting all of the following conditions. In most situations, water temperatures of at least 26.5 °C (79.7 °F) are needed down to a depth of at least 50 metres (160 ft); waters of this temperature cause the overlying atmosphere to be unstable enough to sustain convection and thunderstorms. Another factor is rapid cooling with height, which allows the release of the heat of condensation that powers a tropical cyclone.High humidity is needed, especially in the lower-to-mid troposphere; when there is a great deal of moisture in the atmosphere, conditions are more favorable for disturbances to develop. Low amounts of wind shear are needed, as high shear is disruptive to the storm's circulation. Tropical cyclones generally need to form more than 555 kilometres (345 mi) or 5 degrees of latitude away from the equator, allowing the Coriolis effect to deflect winds blowing towards the low pressure center and creating a circulation. Lastly, a formative tropical cyclone needs a pre-existing system of disturbed weather, although without a circulation no cyclonic development will take place.
Very Informative!
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Quoting presslord:
OK...this is never a popular thing to mention...but I'm takin' the day off...and feel like stirin' it up a bit...

There is an undeniable upside to a land falling major hurricane in the US.

It creates tremendous economic activity and opportunity.

In light of the fact that we're in the worst economy most of us have ever seen....it's worth considering.



That's just nonsensical. Just because GDP rises as a result of disasters due to the costs of reconstruction, doesn't mean that this is a positive thing. Would a global nuclear war be good for the global economy?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:


well.....Grothar....


ROFLMBO! Be nice....snicker snicker snort snort...
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Do we have anyone on here older then 90 on this site?



Grothar is 900.



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3155. Grothar
Quoting Cayman2010:
You're good to hang around a while - we just better hope that the poles never reverse else we'll never know where we are ;-)


:)
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
LOL. Actually it is SW of West End since West End is in the Brac.
Good point
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Do we have anyone on here older then 90 on this site?


well.....Grothar....
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
One of the scarier aspects of 97L is how big the low-level swirl is in relation to the current convection. That argues for a really large windfield and if this thing really starts ramping up. Not good, but interesting.


Indeed.... the lower level circulation (or whats trying to become circulation) looks like its maybe 300 miles wide?
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Morn'n KN.


What's shaking, PD?
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Quoting presslord:
OK...this is never a popular thing to mention...but I'm takin' the day off...and feel like stirin' it up a bit...

There is an undeniable upside to a land falling major hurricane in the US.

It creates tremendous economic activity and opportunity.

In light of the fact that we're in the worst economy most of us have ever Bseen....it's worth considering.

Boo to you.
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Morn'n KN.
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Quoting presslord:
OK...this is never a popular thing to mention...but I'm takin' the day off...and feel like stirin' it up a bit...

There is an undeniable upside to a land falling major hurricane in the US.

It creates tremendous economic activity and opportunity.

In light of the fact that we're in the worst economy most of us have ever seen....it's worth considering.


Why wait for a hurricane then, just start bulldozing a few cities......
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11154
Quoting presslord:
OK...this is never a popular thing to mention...but I'm takin' the day off...and feel like stirin' it up a bit...

There is an undeniable upside to a land falling major hurricane in the US.

It creates tremendous economic activity and opportunity.

In light of the fact that we're in the worst economy most of us have ever seen....it's worth considering.


Do we have anyone on here older then 90 on this site?
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Quoting Grothar:


If you tell me due South of West End, I am out of here. :)
You're good to hang around a while - we just better hope that the poles never reverse else we'll never know where we are ;-)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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