Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011

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A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting PensacolaDoug:


but in the end everyone could still be poorer


Just another way redistribute the wealth..


Dividing wealth does'nt multiply it.


The wealth, of course, is in the form of all the insurance premiums that people have been paying for years. The insurance industry makes the loss.
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Quoting Patrap:


Last US Hurricane Strike was Ike Sept 08,,





Ike,wiki


Patrap = Parent Trap = Haley Mills fan :-)
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Quoting Neapolitan:
No one--well, no adult in his or her right mind, anyway--wants a storm or other natural disaster to come calling. But when looked at strictly as a local or regional economic stimulus, there simply are no equals to the amount of cash that pours in. Look at Greensburg, or Joplin, or Tuscaloosa...

A few years back, the New York Times did an article on the effect.



These ideas taken to their conclusion..

Lets' destroy everything. That way we'll all be better off as we rebuild it.



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3242. Patrap
ESL by LSU Investigation Areas


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Quoting Patrap:



Last US Hurricanr Strike was Ike Sept 08,,





Ike,wiki

Over at the CV maternity ward, it looks like twins about to born bringing their own rotation with them as well.
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No US landfalling hurricane for 6 years might just be what caused that.

You forgot Hurricane Ike (2008). The eye passed over my house, inland from Galveston, so I kinda remember.
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3239. Grothar
All of the models seem tightly clustered until around Hispaniola. I guess depending on the strength of 97L, it will be interesting to see which way it will go.

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


If it gets a little further north there may be problems.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting Patrap:



Last US Hurricanr Strike was Ike Sept 08,,





Ike,wiki


Wilma actually, as a CAT. 3 on October 25, 2005 if we're talking major hurricane that is. But yes Ike was the last hurricane below major hurricane status.
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3236. Patrap


Last US Hurricane Strike was Ike Sept 08,,





Ike,wiki
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3235. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


No, pretty stable at ~5000 feet. I don't know how shallow the water is in that area so some of the SFMR reading could be due to "shoaling" where choppy seas can cause false reading. Also, SFMR has issues with weak storms and rainfall, that is why many times you see the QC flag set with increased rainfall.


Got it.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
3234. ncstorm
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
Quoting WxLogic:


Great... was it due to flight level changes?


No, pretty stable at ~5000 feet. I don't know how shallow the water is in that area so some of the SFMR reading could be due to "shoaling" where choppy seas can cause false reading. Also, SFMR has issues with weak storms and rainfall, that is why many times you see the QC flag set with increased rainfall.
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No one--well, no adult in his or her right mind, anyway--wants a storm or other natural disaster to come calling. But when looked at strictly as a local or regional economic stimulus, there simply are no equals to the amount of cash that pours in. Look at Greensburg, or Joplin, or Tuscaloosa...

A few years back, the New York Times did an article on the effect.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:




Thanks. That was fast. It looks like TD8 will miss the hottest water. Do you also have one for the GOM? I'm here near Galveston, and just wondered where the "Loop Current" is.
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3230. WxLogic
Quoting Grothar:
It appears the HWRF is still taking the middle road, while the GFDL is maintaining a more Southerly track.



06Z GFDL looses the system shortly after initialization, but as you mentioned HWRF takes it right through DR as a TS.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
Quoting dan77539:
Ooh, I didn't know we had an econ discussion going!: GDP is a measure of economic ACTIVITY, but not necessarily wealth-creation. Therein lies the irony. Destruction brings a lot of activity, but in the end everyone could still be poorer.


but in the end everyone could still be poorer


Just another way redistribute the wealth..


Dividing wealth doesn't multiply it.
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This board is going to go NUTS by Monday. It has been a LONG time since a hurricane threatened the CONUS and while not written in stone, it sure appears that 97l could be on a collision course with the CONUS. Any guesses as to when its classified as a depression? My guess is Sunday.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like TD8 is going to miss the coast by over 40 miles then, and the pressure is well down to 1004 mb. That tells you that further intensification is likely.


This must be why some of the models were showing a possibility of hurricane strength a few days ago. It won't have time for that now, likely, but TS by the time it gets to Belize seems almost certain.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
It is in the right spot to intensify. Anyone have the TCHP map ?


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Quoting dan77539:
Ooh, I didn't know we had an econ discussion going!: GDP is a measure of economic ACTIVITY, but not necessarily wealth-creation. Therein lies the irony. Destruction brings a lot of activity, but in the end everyone could still be poorer.


The problem is people are so worried about what could happen in the economy that they are holding onto every penny they have. If the economy was in a way better state then people would be spending money freely. But because they are worried and anxious about what is going to happen next they keep it to themselves and store it away in banks where it is doing nothing for them or the economy. The money they earn just sits stagnant in a bank account instead of flowing back into the economy. A hurricane may cause some to take money out of their savings account to pay for things they wouldn't normally have needed, (food, batteries, water, house repairs, debris clearing, etc..) creating tons of jobs and putting money back into the economy. No US landfalling hurricane for 6 years might just be what caused that. We surely don't want now a ton of US landfalling hurricanes in one season, but if hurricanes had continued hitting occasionally over the past few years, maybe it would be totally different... Who knows... IMO

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3224. ncstorm


Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
3223. Grothar
It appears the HWRF is still taking the middle road, while the GFDL is maintaining a more Southerly track.

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3222. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Most of the SFMR readings are contaminated and do not coorelate well with flight level winds. They have not sampled much of the storm yet so they may find higher winds.


Great... was it due to flight level changes?
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
3221. Patrap

93L 2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve


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ATCF update just out:

AL, 08, 2011081912, , BEST, 0, 160N, 833W, 30, 1004, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 120, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EIGHT, M,
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like TD8 is going to miss the coast by over 40 miles then, and the pressure is well down to 1004 mb. That tells you that further intensification is likely.
It is in the right spot to intensify. Anyone have the TCHP map ?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting yonzabam:


The economic gain made by some due to disasters does not balance the losses suffered by others.

These losses are not just the immediate losses caused by physical destruction of property, but also future losses due to higher insurance costs, people and businesses relocating to other areas etc.


There is loss daily...by the standards you are talking about we should walk everywhere to stop car accidents...there are natural disasters EVERYWHERE, I choose to live in a hurricane prone area...if I choose to live here, i must accept the chances that i could lose what i have...same as in tornado, blizzard, drought, flood plains, etc...loss is loss, we all loose possessions, family, etc at some point... but if it is inevitable that a storm is going to hit a particular area, then use it to the advantage...only other choice is to not let anyone live on any coast anywhere...but that wouldnt work either as Hugo traveled thru several states some not even coastal and did massive damage...
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Quoting WxLogic:
To me... we have a TS based on recon. So would expect TS @11AM too.


Most of the SFMR readings are contaminated and do not coorelate well with flight level winds. They have not sampled much of the storm yet so they may find higher winds.
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someone(gov/us/) still has to pay to rebuld all the damage,we might want to start paying our old debts before running up new ones,short term would be good for local economy ,long term, not so great because people may not want to rebuild depending on what area s get destroyed and in the long run local govs and fema will pick up most of the debt as usual,the anwser is not to build along the immedate coastline in the most vounerable areas ,but its to late imo
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Looks like TD8 is going to miss the coast by over 40 miles then, and the pressure is well down to 1004 mb. That tells you that further intensification is likely.
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3212. docrod
It's sometimes not easy to get parts in the Keys ....

From NWS Key West on their radar ...

000
NOUS62 KKEY 160914
FTMBYX
Message Date: Aug 16 2011 09:14:29
KBYX RADAR WILL BE DOWN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO LOSS OF COMMUNICATION BETWEE
N THE RDA AND THE RPG.

000
NOUS62 KKEY 161824
FTMBYX
Message Date: Aug 16 2011 18:24:32
THE WSR-88D KEY WEST (KBYX) RADAR REMAINS INOPERABLE DUE TO A LIGHTNING STRIKE.
PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDERED AND THEY WILL BE ARRIVING TOMORROW. AN UPDATE WILL BE
SENT OUT WHEN NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. THANKS FOR YOUR PATIENCE. - UL
RICH


000
NOUS62 KKEY 170349
FTMBYX
Message Date: Aug 17 2011 03:49:57

THE WSR-88D KEY WEST (KBYX) RADAR REMAINS INOPERABLE DUE TO A LIGHTNING STRIKE.
PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDERED AND THEY WILL BE ARRIVING WEDNESDAY. AN UPDATE WILL BE
SENT OUT WHEN NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. THANKS FOR YOUR PATIENCE.


000
NOUS62 KKEY 171748
FTMBYX
Message Date: Aug 17 2011 17:48:35

THE WSR-88D KEY WEST (KBYX) RADAR REMAINS INOPERABLE DUE TO A LIGHTNING STRIKE.
SOME PARTS HAVE ARRIVED...BUT ADDITIONAL PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDERED WHICH WILL NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE RADAR WILL REMAIN DOWN AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AN UPDATE WILL BE SENT OUT WHEN NEW INFORMATION BECOME
S AVAILABLE. THANKS FOR YOUR PATIENCE.


000
NOUS62 KKEY 190032
FTMBYX
Message Date: Aug 19 2011 00:32:59

THE WSR-88D KEY WEST (KBYX) RADAR REMAINS INOPERABLE DUE TO A LIGHTNING STRIKE F
ROM EARLIER THIS WEEK. TECHNICIANS ARE WAITING ON ONE ADDITIONAL PART THAT SHOUL
D ARRIVE THURSDAY MORNING AND THEY ARE HOPEFUL THE RADAR WILL BE OPERATIONAL SOM
ETIME DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AN UPDATE WILL BE SENT OUT WHEN NEW INFORMATIO
N BECOMES AVAILABLE. THANKS FOR YOUR PATIENCE. - ULRICH
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Ooh, I didn't know we had an econ discussion going!: GDP is a measure of economic ACTIVITY, but not necessarily wealth-creation. Therein lies the irony. Destruction brings a lot of activity, but in the end everyone could still be poorer.
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Well...Now, this just changes everything, now doesn't it?
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Quoting Chicklit:


We use the same rationale to go to war.
Why not just create good policy to effect the same thing and avoid the death and destruction?
Because we are stuck in a dumb human cycle.
How long will take us to evolve out of this?
Another hundred years?



silly analogy...we can control going to war....we can't control where a hurricane strikes...
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Quoting stormpetrol:
From the HHs data I've seen so far this will probably upgraded to 45-50mph TS Harvey at 11 est., jmo.

Likely before then...
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
835 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS LOCATED ABOUT
35 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE POSITION IN THE 8 AM INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY.

SUMMARY OF 835 AM EDT...1235 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 83.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM N OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 12:32Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Tropical Depression: Number 8 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 12:13:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°59'N 83°18'W (15.9833N 83.3W)
B. Center Fix Location: 262 miles (422 km) to the SSW (209°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,457m (4,780ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 30kts (~ 34.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 51 nautical miles (59 statute miles) to the SE (144°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 221° at 20kts (From the SW at ~ 23.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SE (136°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 32kts (~ 36.8mph) in the northwest quadrant at 12:21:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 32kts (~ 36.8mph) in the northwest quadrant at 12:21:00Z
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Quoting dan77539:


This is extrapolated to the surfact, or at flight level?
Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor
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3201. WxLogic
To me... we have a TS based on recon. So would expect TS @11AM too.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
This AM, both 97L and 98L have good model support for continued development.

GFS, ECMWF, CMC, UKMET, & NOGAPS all show 97L becoming a tropical storm and later a hurricane.

GFS, ECMWF, CMC & NOGAPS also shows development from 98L to a tropical storm.
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morning

97L is now located about 900 miles east of the cental windward islands and moving slightly north of west. latest sat pics are indicating that the system is getting better organised, as there is an increase in convection, primarily due to the increase ssts and a more moist enviroment,as it approaches 50W. Looking at the low and medium steering currents from CIMMS ,this morning it is clear that the system will contnue west and at times slightly south of west before returning to a west track. The system will apprach barbados and the windward islands on sat night as a depression or a mimimal tropical storm. All that could change depending ,how quickly the disturbance can mix out the dry air which has plagued it the last few days. my feeling is that that 97L/ td/ ts will pass near or over martinigue on sat night and move into the caribbean sea. there after i expect it to slowly intensify as it approaches the greater antilles. even if 97L does not form i expect stormy conditios to affect barbados and the central windwards this weekend.
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The HH have TD8 30 miles to the east of NHC 8 o'clock advisory so we should expect the NHC to say in it's 11 o'clock advisory that the TS Harvey has stalled .
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3197. Grothar
Quoting tiggeriffic:


ummm...did he help Charlie Hall write backwards on the weather board?


I've never been to Charleston. :)
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Quoting MahFL:


Does it have a LLC yet ?



Yes.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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