Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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3110. TomTaylor
4:47 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
x
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
3109. TomTaylor
4:44 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
NEW BLOG ENTRY

ay
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
3108. JBirdFireMedic
4:39 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 247
3107. Floodman
4:17 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:

Seriously!!!! what makes you ask that question????


Either a lack of medication or a close proximity to stormtop...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
3106. Floodman
4:14 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey mate, How you going. How's the old back going?


Going good...90 to nothing!

The back is great; I had a spectacular surgeon and I hammered my way through recovery and PT. I'm at 98% of where I was prior to the back being really bad, which is amazing, considering the shape the rest of me is in...if I died tomorrow my back would keep on going another 20 years

LOL

And you? How are you doing?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
3105. Floodman
4:09 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
Quoting Patrap:


The Floodman is a wise owl,,Ferris say's.


All of that and I have some really spectacular friends too...thanks, brother!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
3104. Floodman
4:08 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
Quoting Slamguitar:
Man, I go out for a few groceries to pass some time till recon gets there, and the HH barely moved. It's gonna be another half hour until the HH gets to 93L's environment. Guess that means I got time to cook some of those groceries. Honey ham anyone?


And some eggs maybe? Hey, you know waht? Slide over and let Flood make you some of my world famous french toast...where's the nutmeg?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
3102. Slamguitar
3:57 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
Man, I go out for a few groceries to pass some time till recon gets there, and the HH barely moved. It's gonna be another half hour until the HH gets to 93L's environment. Guess that means I got time to cook some of those groceries. Honey ham anyone?
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
3099. Barbados
3:35 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
Looks like 97L is already 14N. By the time is gets to the islands looks like 18N-20N maybe even higher depending on strength at that time.

Member Since: August 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
3098. wxmobilejim
3:28 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
Quoting tropicfreak:
Wait has 97L already been designated??
yes
Member Since: May 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 231
3097. hulazigzag
3:27 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
very boring season so far. some barely storms need more action
Member Since: July 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 240
3095. odinslightning
3:09 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
one advantage to being in the south is Golden Flake chips. Frito Lay cant match up. lol.
Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 514
3094. stormwatcherCI
3:09 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
Quoting tropicfreak:



No he was talking about 93L, and he quoted someone's post about 93L's lifespan so far.
Ok. Sorry, my mistake. I am at work so mostly lurking on a verrry slow computer.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8399
3093. tropicfreak
3:07 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Who cares, she's over the mountains to the Pacific. It's like watching the ball game you've recorded, after you already know who has won.



Apologize, did not read it carefully enough.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
3092. OracleDeAtlantis
3:06 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
Quoting tropicfreak:


Have to strongly disagree, convection has consolidated, pressures are dropping, I see no reason why this wouldn't be declared TD 8 or Harvey later on today, only thing that stands in the way is recon and NHC.
Who cares, she's over the mountains to the Pacific. It's like watching the ball game you've recorded, after you already know who has won.
Member Since: August 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 525
3091. tropicfreak
3:06 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
He was speaking about the one in the Pacific I believe.



No he was talking about 93L, and he quoted someone's post about 93L's lifespan so far.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
3090. Floodman
3:06 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
Quoting tropicfreak:


I do the same thing, and apparently some people have a problem with it.


Mistakenly hoping that some pearl of wisdom wil fall from his lips, apparently
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
3089. kshipre1
3:06 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
ok, thanks. so, in short, you are indicating a recurve as of now is a very low chance

that is scary. upper level pattern shaping like 2004 path storms... High stationed in the west atlantic with storms steering right into Florida

once can only hope the circulation goes over land and mountains long enough but for some reason I have a little heightened fear about this one

maybe I am crazy because it is still an invest and not a storm

Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
3088. Neapolitan
3:05 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
NEW BLOG ENTRY

Sorry; just didn't want any to miss it. ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13579
3087. HurricaneDean07
3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
The storms this season that came close to hurricane status:
1. Gert~ nearly closed Eyewall, though couldn't get winds high enough

2. Arlene~ Had winds ramping up, though didnt have enough time over water to develop an eyewall

3. Cindy~ Developed an Eye like feature and it appeared to have an eyewall though not fully closed, and winds only reached 60 Mph

4. Bret~ Developed an "Eye like" feature though there was now indication of an eyewall, and winds only peaked around 65 mph. In addition the Eye feature fell apart quickly after the formation of the Eye

5. Harvey could make a run for Hurricane Status though I put the odds of achieving hurricane status at around 30%

6. 97L Could be a threat to become a hurricane sometime Early next week

Don, Emily, and Franklin all did not even near hurricane status whatsoever...

Don~ 50 Mph, very disorganized
Emily~ 50 Mph, had organization troubles along with Dry air, and rugged terrain of Hispanoila/Cuba
Franklin~ 45 Mph, was a shallow warm core system, and had little time to strengthen before becoming extratropical
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
3086. AussieStorm
3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
Quoting CorneliaMarie:
When is 93L set to hit New Orleans?

TIA

Seriously!!!! what makes you ask that question????
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
3085. stormwatcherCI
3:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
Quoting tropicfreak:


Have to strongly disagree, convection has consolidated, pressures are dropping, I see no reason why this wouldn't be declared TD 8 or Harvey later on today, only thing that stands in the way is recon and NHC.
He was speaking about the one in the Pacific I believe.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8399
3084. RitaEvac
3:03 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
lol, looks like Rick Perry's statement about global warming is having affects on the market.

10,972.76
-437.45 (-3.83%
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
3083. AussieStorm
3:02 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
Time: 14:49:00Z
Coordinates: 16.85N 67.7167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 392.6 mb (~ 11.59 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,729 meters (~ 25,358 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 416 meters (~ 1,365 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 42° at 5 knots (From the NE at ~ 5.8 mph)
Air Temp: -18.7°C (~ -1.7°F)
Dew Pt: -22.8°C (~ -9.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 6 knots (~ 6.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
3082. beell
3:02 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
Quoting kshipre1:
accuweather mentioning that system in central atlantic could possibly recurve in or around Bahamas

that would be great news but again, I am stunned. With a High that big projected by the end of next week, what the heck could barrell through that thing!


I held that hope for a while. But no longer. We have had a weak one the last 2-3 weeks. The A/B ridge is now being modeled almost as strong (height-wise) as the one setting over Texas. And this would apply to almost any degree of storm organization. A deep layer ridge.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16767
3080. tropicfreak
3:01 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
Wait has 97L already been designated??
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
3079. AussieStorm
3:01 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 14:46Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fifth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 01

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Thursday, 14:40Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 17.1N 66.9W
Location: 106 miles (171 km) to the SSW (211°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,320 meters
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -19°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Not available, probably because the dew point hygrometer was not working.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,590 geopotential meters
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
3078. Patrap
3:01 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
Hard to miss that Blue, "Rules of the Road" icon right bove the comment box below.

Read it sometimes.

And maybe check out the community standards as well.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
3077. kshipre1
3:01 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
am curious to see the model consensus on direction and intensity as we get into next week

incredible global agreement so far on a florida hit... not good

not panicked yet but can not recall a system that has had consistent track record agreement on cyclone formation and potential landfall point

i tell ya... when the GFS and EURO come into agreement, that could mean something

then again, maybe I am wrong
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
3076. tropicfreak
3:00 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
I see outflow boundaries, which means she's sucking up some dry air.

A little help from the MJO, won't come in time. This one is bye bye to Hawaii.


Have to strongly disagree, convection has consolidated, pressures are dropping, I see no reason why this wouldn't be declared TD 8 or Harvey later on today, only thing that stands in the way is recon and NHC.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
3075. yesterway
2:59 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
Accuwx video discussion regarding current African wave to follow Hurricane Donna's path making east coast landfall next week as Hurricane or strong T.S.

Link
Member Since: October 26, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 363
3074. AussieStorm
2:59 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
Quoting Floodman:



Hey mate, How you going. How's the old back going?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
3073. Patrap
2:59 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
Quoting Floodman:


Use the ignore function...it works perfectly. I should know. Everytime this guys rears his head, I add his latest handle to the list.


The Floodman is a wise owl,,Ferris say's.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
3071. xtremeweathertracker
2:58 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
Quoting tropicfreak:
Levi, Misswx, miami, any experts on here think once Harvey develops, could it make it to hurricane status?

If 93L continues on its westward to west northwestward track it will start interacting with the northern coast of Honduras in 24 to 36 hours which could limit intensity; however if it turns slightly more northwestward toward Belize it misses the interaction and its time over warm water increases dramatically. It is approximately 600 miles from the center of 93L to the coast of Belize!!!
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 57 Comments: 572
3070. Dennis8
2:58 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
Quoting JasonCoolMan2012:
I dont like this at all!


THANKS!
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 446
3069. tropicfreak
2:58 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
Quoting Floodman:


Use the ignore function...it works perfectly. I should know. Everytime this guys rears his head, I add his latest handle to the list.


I do the same thing, and apparently some people have a problem with it.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
3067. tropicfreak
2:57 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Jrweatherman,
Don't jump the gun yet, there is still no major details on possible Harvey, and those are key to knowing if Hurricane status is achievable with Harvey... My guess is a 70 Mph storms unless something were to occur... RI


Which most certainly wouldn't be out of the question, especially in the NW Caribbean.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
3066. 7544
2:57 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
97l is shaping up good
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6862
3064. Floodman
2:56 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


hey Jason please stop it. It may seem funny to you but to other its not don't worry we will have a renumber soon and when it happen you can post it till your computer breaks but until then please please please stop please


Use the ignore function...it works perfectly. I should know. Everytime this guys rears his head, I add his latest handle to the list.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
3063. OracleDeAtlantis
2:56 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
For a little fun, evolution of 93L over the last three days:

8/16 1815Z:


8/17 1315Z:


8/18 1415Z:


I see consolidation and organization.
I see outflow boundaries, which means she's sucking up some dry air.

A little help from the MJO, won't come in time. This one is bye bye to Hawaii.
Member Since: August 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 525
3062. PaulinJax
2:56 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
93L should be coming close to a bouy 17.003 N 81.501 W

It does seem to be tracking a little farther to the north
Member Since: August 3, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 52
3061. WxLogic
2:56 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
12Z NAM:



500MB:

Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
3060. Gumbogator
2:56 PM GMT on August 18, 2011
The annual drought map is a good source but, it doesn't even come close to telling the harsh reality of where the true drought is ?? From the "Golden Triangle"(SE TX) to SW and Central LA to NW LA over the last 20 months there are places like Newton TX, De Ridder LA, Orange TX and Alexandria LA that are -37 to -49 inches of rain down since January 2010 thru Mid August 2011 !! Am praying for any tropical system to break the climate cycle that has been so badd****
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 106

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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