Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
18/1145 UTC 15.8N 78.7W T2.0/2.0 93L -- Atlantic
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Quoting FLdewey:


Ummmm... both Major League Baseball and the tropics are forecast to be on steroids this season?


LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2706. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
2705. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT21 KNGU 181200
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0N 79.6W TO 16.0N 85.8W WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED 155NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS AND PRODUCING MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE
REGION. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO INDICATIONS OF A CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION,
HOWEVER SURFACE PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS. CURRENT DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION AS OF 18/0545Z IS T1.5/2.0. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 83
TO 85 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS MAY
ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
BY 191200Z.//

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting Autistic2:
Do our HH have to fly around cuba or are they allowed to fly over it?
They can fly over it. Permission from the Cuban Govt. was granted many years ago. Only stipulation is that they share info with them.
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Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





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2701. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
ALERT ATCF MIL 93X XXX 110818060000
2011081806
16.0 280.4
16.0 274.2
100
15.5 282.0
181200
1108181200
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT21 KNGU 181200
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0N 79.6W TO 16.0N 85.8W WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED 155NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS AND PRODUCING MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE
REGION. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO INDICATIONS OF A CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION,
HOWEVER SURFACE PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS. CURRENT DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION AS OF 18/0545Z IS T1.5/2.0. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 83
TO 85 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS MAY
ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
BY 191200Z.//
9311081000 96N 135W 20
9311081006 98N 150W 20
9311081012 99N 165W 20
9311081018 100N 180W 20
9311081100 102N 195W 20
9311081106 104N 210W 20
9311081112 106N 228W 25
9311081118 108N 246W 25
9311081200 110N 265W 25
9311081206 112N 284W 25
9311081212 113N 300W 25
9311081218 113N 315W 25
9311081300 116N 326W 25
9311081306 117N 339W 25
9311081312 120N 370W 20
9311081318 122N 395W 20
9311081400 123N 425W 20
9311081406 125N 454W 20
9311081412 128N 481W 20
9311081418 130N 506W 20
9311081500 132N 529W 20
9311081506 134N 551W 20
9311081512 135N 573W 25
9311081518 136N 593W 25
9311081600 136N 613W 25
9311081606 137N 634W 25
9311081612 138N 654W 25
9311081618 141N 674W 25
9311081700 144N 694W 25
9311081706 147N 713W 25
9311081712 149N 733W 25
9311081718 151N 749W 25
9311081800 153N 765W 25
9311081806 155N 780W 25

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting FLdewey:
Morning ProgressivePulse... from drought to flood!



Huh... from MLB north they chat about it which is a little strange this far out.



Strange yes, but, deep layer steering doesn't give the storm too many options ya know? This ridge will be all the way up. Wherever the weakness goes, yabang... Flat troughing could yield a rather slow storm motion as well.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
The main inhibiting factor for the development of pouch 17L / pre97L, whatever the heck you want to call is, is dry air. P17L's circulation has a huge zone of domination which is dragging in dry air from the north. Wind shear is currently a modest 10-15 knots over a majority of said circulation and falling out in the path ahead due to a anticyclonic flow above 17L, which most models predict will persist and guide the system to manhood.

Relative humidity (analysis) reveals a lot about P17L's current environment, including an up-welling of unstable air from the south and stable air wrapping from the west, forming something that looks like a beach wave. The GFS RH forecast shown at 72h below (loop it all here) confirms that dry air will remain a problem until around the Eastern Caribbean, which is where most models end up predicting genesis anyway.

That's my quick analysis. Now, back to lurking.

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Quoting odinslightning:



the weatherunderground 06z run doesn't show a cuban solution/landfall. i do see it brushing west side against d.r. but staying offshore.

Link
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Quoting odinslightning:



?? a cuban solution? it looks like the gfs runs keep this over the bahamas. flat tiny isles, and it will have blown up so large that the land shear would be like a drop in a bucket.


do u guys have a link to the 06z run you are referencing?


In terms of ernesto. I think this will eventually will go ahead and develope close to 50w BUT i still think hispaniola is the wild card.
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Quoting USAFwxguy:


If the LLC centers a bit north, then that is more likely; however, if it centers on further south, imbedded more in wsw flow then not so much. Flow should gradual become weaker, either way.

I expect wnw, north of Honduras.
Thanks. It does actually look like it wants to form a little further North to me.
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Do our HH have to fly around cuba or are they allowed to fly over it?
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Quoting odinslightning:



?? a cuban solution? it looks like the gfs runs keep this over the bahamas. flat tiny isles, and it will have blown up so large that the land shear would be like a drop in a bucket.


do u guys have a link to the 06z run you are referencing?



the weatherunderground 06z run doesn't show a cuban solution/landfall.

Link
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12z SHIPS run for 93L shows the DSHPS peaking at 80kts in 72 hr and the LGEM at 89kt...
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Quoting hurricane23:


Those cuban mountains don't mess around. This mornings european ensembles came in with a pretty significant cyclone clusterd in the bahamas vicinity.



?? a cuban solution? it looks like the gfs runs keep this over the bahamas. flat tiny isles, and it will have blown up so large that the land shear would be like a drop in a bucket.


do u guys have a link to the 06z run you are referencing?
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Quoting kshipre1:
thanks,

I hope I did not sound rude. I was just saying it seemed strange

have a nice day!


Didn't sound rude to me. (Hope I didn't either.) I've made my share of "WHAT IS THIS GUY?/MODEL THINKING???" posts. Lol. And it did seem an odd statement this far out and this time of year. Have a nice day too. :)
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Interesting that the 06z SHIPS run for 93L that the DSHPS keeps it strengthening for the next 72 hours.
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Quoting PaulinJax:


I the warm waters in the Gulf made me have to work harder for scallops this year..


Took that family from Orlando FL to Clearwater a couple of weeks ago... It was so so hot outside we all decided to go for a dip.... What do you know, It was the most unrefreshing swim I have ever taken. The water was so hot!
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Quoting hurricane23:


Those cuban mountains don't mess around. This mornings european ensembles came in with a pretty significant cyclone clusterd in the bahamas vicinity.



Yeah, we're in trouble if it misses, that I think we can agree on.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Your exactly right. The same dissipation scenario exists anytime a storm traverses Hispaniola. I've seen them kill the best of them. Look at Ernesto, supposed to reform as a big cane and hit FL, got stuck on Cuba. Lake O drained, big hoopla, nadda...


Those cuban mountains don't mess around. This mornings european ensembles came in with a pretty significant cyclone clusterd in the bahamas vicinity.
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Quoting FLdewey:
NWS offices throughout the SE are caving to DOOM pressure... starting to mention Florida's strategic removal from the states in a week.

Unda pressha!


Oddly though, the 7:24 S. FL area NWS discussion doesn't mention it.

Weird.
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Quoting FLdewey:
NWS offices throughout the SE are caving to DOOM pressure... starting to mention Florida's strategic removal from the states in a week.

Unda pressha!


Morning Dewey, the threat won't end with the C-Atl aoi either.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 181124
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
724 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2011

AS THE E FLOW BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED LATER IN THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, IT LOOKS LIKE A LONG PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL
ACTIVITY ALONG THE E CST WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ALONG
THE FAR WESTERN INTERIOR AND THE COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY AREAS.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
Quoting Jax82:
Gettin Toasty.



I the warm waters in the Gulf made me have to work harder for scallops this year..
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Quoting mcluvincane:


23 is way out of touch if he thinks its going to be an Emily scenario with all due respect. I use to respect his analysis but here lately he is one of the biggest downcasters around.

He does bring up a valid point on land interaction so I agree with him there. Until we have a developed system it is hard to figure how factors such as land would effect it. It is worrisome to see similar tracks by the major models. Right now there is no invest and no developed system. That is a good thing, but that could be changing over the weekend.
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Quoting USAFwxguy:
1200 CIMMS update:

I really think 93L will not landfall in Honduras, and am worried about its potential for development north of Honduras



Shear is light to moderate (at most), so a non-issue really



It will be a close call, but I don't think it landfalls in Honduras.
Looking at the latest steering(and please correct me if I am wrong) it looks like 93L should(maybe) start moving wnw ?
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2675. jpsb
Quoting FLdewey:
NWS offices throughout the SE are caving to DOOM pressure... starting to mention Florida's strategic removal from the states in a week.

Unda pressha!



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Could 93L pull a Matthew?
Forecasted to become a hurricane, but hit CA as a TS then dissipate.
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Parched Houstonian here....am I seeing a mirage or could we be getting some tropical moisture forming in the gulf? Please say yes....not wishcasting for something damaging....just a little rain. Our luck it'll get pushed south again. Have a great day all!
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Quoting hurricane23:


Take a look closely @ the 06z GFS run it takes the storm through most of the island of hispaniola which would act to disrupt any circulation. land interaction will be key here similar to that of emily. Again Life in the USA would be a weekly disaster movie if you lived in the world of the GFS 8-day forecast.





Your exactly right. The same dissipation scenario exists anytime a storm traverses Hispaniola or Eastern Cuba. I've seen them kill the best of them. Look at Ernesto, supposed to reform as a big cane and hit FL, got stuck on Cuba. Lake O drained, big hoopla, nadda...
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
strange how models are now saying a major hurricane in the Tampa area.

with the tight agreement in the models of a florida hit (eventhough it is early), the Tampa thing just sounds a bit far fetched...... even though it could happen
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Quoting hotrods:
Sorry about the miss spelling, see my grammer isn,t that great in the morning either! I also enjoy reading Taz's comments as well, i don't post to much but been here for a while.


I've been here since almost the begnning and taz is a good guy. I don't have a problem with him at all. He has the same passion as I do for the tropics. I was fortunate enough to be able to afford an education. We are here to talk about the tropics right? Lets get back on it!
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athomeintx where are you seeing a trough dropping down to pull the pre-97L away from land? all models I have seen have lined up showing a neutral environment with no troughs. Thats why predictions are for an eastern seaboard runner as a major cat making landfall twice (fla and s. carolina/ga). in addition steering wind models on all levels suggest the eastern seaboard solution. just curious to know how you are determining this is going to recurve away from land and go extra-trop?
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2668. DDR
Good morning all
Looking at an inch or 2 of rain today in Trinidad

Link
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Quoting mcluvincane:


23 is way out of touch if he thinks its going to be an Emily scenario with all due respect. I use to respect his analysis but here lately he is one of the biggest downcasters around.


Take a look closely @ the 06z GFS run it takes the storm through most of the island of hispaniola which would act to disrupt any circulation. land interaction will be key here similar to that of emily. Again Life in the USA would be a weekly disaster movie if you lived in the world of the GFS 8-day forecast.


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thanks,

I hope I did not sound rude. I was just saying it seemed strange

have a nice day!
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morning,
i am lost to the forecast track by most of the reliable models for what may be designated 97L in the central atlantic. The models are working on the assumption that the catl area of disturbed weather will strenghened and moved along the 500-850 mb steering current. looking at the disturbance this morning it does appear, that it is moving west with the 700-850 mb steering current. This will bring the disturbance perilously close to the cental antilles, and move into the caribbean and track south of the greater antilles,in atrack similiar to Emily.
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Quoting Matt74:
Thanks for that post At Home.I just think that is a little too far out to be speculating like that. I gotta think that he knows that too. Our season usually ends by the beginning of october. When is the last time we had a decent cold front in early September?


Yeah. I thought it was too early to make a call like that too. Can't remember when we had a decent cold front that early either. I can vividly remember a strong cold front on Halloween maybe 15 years ago. But usually it's pretty hot then too. Who knows about the tropics. A surprise Humberto in the middle of September would be ok. He put down an insane amount rainfall for a cat 1. Something like 14 inches. Guess we'll see.
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Morning All.

GFS still status quo I see.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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