Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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93L is passing thru a frontal boundary.
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Quoting USAFwxguy:


if it happens to go sub-1000mb, then you can see how the BoC is blocked by the flow around the high over TX... that would suggest a path north into the weakness over the Eastern GoM. Please note this is just the current map, and I haven't yet looked at any forecast products.

..maybe the boc,i'd guess ino hondorus as a 65mph ts ,next to no chance of it heading north into the gom as the weakness oiver the gom is lifting to the north and the high is begining to bridge
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2757. zawxdsk
Quoting Matt74:
For a small system that was a pretty intense storm. For the people that have never been through a hurricane i don't think they realize how rough even a cat 1 can be. That being said I still would take one as long as it brings a good amount of rain.


Maybe a Tropical Storm like Allison would help you out. 45 inches of rain just might catch Texas back up to normal levels...
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Quoting Matt74:
Don't the intensity models always seem to overdue systems? Or do they generally give a pretty good idea?


The SHIPS at least tends to overdue intensity for invests, but once a system develops it is more accurate.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting AussieStorm:

Good Evening :-)


Good evening Aussie. :)
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2753. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
2752. MahFL
Quoting islander101010:
surfing a bit did anyone see gov perry from texas (wears alot of makeup) is now bringing the anti global warming to his platform? think its bad in here wait to the debates upcoming


He's from the State that produces the most CO2, so what do you expect him to say ? It would cost that State more $ than any other State to slowdown/reduce the emissions, which would mean higher taxes.
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2751. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
SHIPS still forecasting a reduction in forward speed for 93L...well, sort of, anyway.

TIME (HR)
0...12 kt
6...10 kt
12...9 kt
18...8 kt
24...7 kt
36...6 kt
48...6 kt
60...6 kt
72...6 kt
84...7 kt
96...7 kt
108...8 kt
120...8 kt

Prob of RI (rapid intensification) for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%)

12z SHIPS has landfall as an 80 knot hurricane. I'm not making heads or tails of that, make what you will of it. Link
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Quoting weathers4me:
Link


If a storm churns into the GOM there most likely will be a mess along some major coast lines.


There is a better chance a hurricane would churn up the waters and help to break up and dissipate the oil sheen.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2996
2748. Matt74
Quoting extreme236:
12z SHIPS run for 93L shows the DSHPS peaking at 80kts in 72 hr and the LGEM at 89kt...
Don't the intensity models always seem to overdue systems? Or do they generally give a pretty good idea?
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2747. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125575
Quoting USAFwxguy:


Hi David... what worries me is the weak flow out there north of Honduras. if 93L slows significantly, a ramp-up greater than anticipated isn't out of the question, which subsequently has an effect on steering.

I agree that it will miss Honduras.


Hi, I don't think it will head to the WNW though. The GOM high is a blocker and the motion has been a steady 275 degrees which is due West .

The steering has been rock steady for days and I do not see a material change in that before 93L would reach Belize
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Quoting odinslightning:



oh :) ok cool i was just fishing for some good news. sorry about that :)


Ah, no problem. :) I hope you do get some good news.
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Quoting kshipre1:
I will start worrying for Florida if by Tuesday and Wednesday the global model guidance is still in agreement


By Tues Wednesday it will be sitting right off Florida if that is where it is going, and you better worry before then.
:-)
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2743. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
INV/AOI/XXL
MARK
13.89N/39.93W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
does anyone else see 06z GFS hr 156 to hr 174. could that represent the land shear effect you are all mentioning? it does look like in those runs the storm loses convection then regains it and becomes a bull in a china shop within the next 24 hrs of runs.


Link
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2741. Patrap
The USA uses the Air Force Reserve HH outta Keesler AFB in Biloxi,,and the NOAA Teams fly's outta McDill, AFB in Fla.

Both can forward the FLight to St, Croix for Logistical reason to fly a Atlantic Spinner.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125575

CATL wave putting together some vorticity this morning around 12N 38W

Link
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Quoting USAFwxguy:


Hi David... what worries me is the weak flow out there north of Honduras. if 93L slows significantly, a ramp-up greater than anticipated isn't out of the question, which subsequently has an effect on steering.

I agree that it will miss Honduras.


A slow down is definitely possible. SHIPS gradually slows it down to as low as 5kts.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting TerraNova:


This might help -



Thanks to both of you!
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Quoting mcluvincane:


23 is way out of touch if he thinks its going to be an Emily scenario with all due respect. I use to respect his analysis but here lately he is one of the biggest downcasters around.


LOL....dont know what 23 said but how can you be a "downcaster" on a wave thats over 1700 miles away and hasn't for all practical purposes even formed "yet"?
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Quoting Neapolitan:
I was greeted this morning by a healthy CB (w/ pileus) percolating over Florida Bay. If I had the time, I'd have gone 'spout hunting, but, alas, duty calls...

Neapolitan

Expect TD8 no later than this afternoon, if not this morning.


That's a beauty. Great shot. I'm hoping to get some nice convection pics on a trip to the grand canyon next week - they've had a healthy monsoon this year.

Maybe down to 1008 but 93L still hasn't pulled the non-linear dp/dt trigger...yet.
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Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

93l appears to be on the verge of being classified as a TD. Pressure is down to 1008 mbs.

At a present latitude of 15.8 N the system will probably skirt the Honduras coast and impact Belize as a TS. There is a lot of heat content between where it is now and Belize and if it takes that track it could be a moderate to strong TS upon landfall.

Meanwhile, out in the Atlantic the wave we have been watching is holding its own this morning. Shear is still on the high side so no major changes likely in the near term.


That's exactly what the SHIPS is showing other then the SHIPS has it as a CAT1
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Good morning kman and all. Looks like monitoring is the key for several more days. Hopefully 93 l will be a easy rain maker and nothing more for ca.
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I will start worrying for Florida if by Tuesday and Wednesday the global model guidance is still in agreement
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2732. Patrap
Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125575
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
I know we cant trust the models totally but what Category is pressure of 982




Well, it sorta depends in a couple different ways.


A global model typically has a very poor resolution, so a 982mb representation of a tropical cyclone on a global model is more likely to be a sub-960mb major hurricane.



But taken at face value a 982mb storm is likely to be a strong cat1.
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Quoting TerraNova:
Somebody on canetalk.com just noted that the best performing model on 93L has, in fact, been XTRP :P

LOL, XTRP is just the direction it takes, doesn't bring into steering or anything else.
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2728. Matt74
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yeah. I thought it was too early to make a call like that too. Can't remember when we had a decent cold front that early either. I can vividly remember a strong cold front on Halloween maybe 15 years ago. But usually it's pretty hot then too. Who knows about the tropics. A surprise Humberto in the middle of September would be ok. He put down an insane amount rainfall for a cat 1. Something like 14 inches. Guess we'll see.
For a small system that was a pretty intense storm. For the people that have never been through a hurricane i don't think they realize how rough even a cat 1 can be. That being said I still would take one as long as it brings a good amount of rain.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
They can fly over it. Permission from the Cuban Govt. was granted many years ago. Only stipulation is that they share info with them.
The HH aircraft is "civilian" and are allowed. (Correct me if I am wrong) Cuba allows it because it benefits their safety.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

High Cat 1 or low Cat 2. But it more depends on wind speed.


This might help -

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Good morning all!
Have a bad feling about this one! Marco's not got a chance against a cat 4/5 hit.

Been down to the beach early this morning and went for a swim waters are sooooo hot. Anything passing near here is gonna blow up big time!
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2724. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125575
2723. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/93L
16.06N/79.83W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Whoa! Hang on. I was just saying/posting what one of my local mes said a few days ago. I don't think it will go out to sea unless it starts developing big time and immediately. Haven't looked at steering lately. If the BH is in the right or (wrong) place it'll get steered into the SE US or Florida I would assume. I'm hoping it won't wait to develop into a monster farther west like is what's being shown. But I'm a big enough weather "Dork" as someone said earlier, to hang around and watch what happens. :) Phew! Tough crowd this morning. I'm gonna start all over again.

Good Morning Everyone! Lol.

Good Evening :-)
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Link


If a storm churns into the GOM there most likely will be a mess along some major coast lines.
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Good morning

93l appears to be on the verge of being classified as a TD. Pressure is down to 1008 mbs.

At a present latitude of 15.8 N the system will probably skirt the Honduras coast and impact Belize as a TS. There is a lot of heat content between where it is now and Belize and if it takes that track it could be a moderate to strong TS upon landfall.

Meanwhile, out in the Atlantic the wave we have been watching is holding its own this morning. Shear is still on the high side so no major changes likely in the near term.
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Somebody on canetalk.com just noted that the best performing model on 93L has, in fact, been XTRP :P
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:
I know we cant trust the models totally but what Category is pressure of 982

High Cat 1 or low Cat 2. But it more depends on wind speed.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Whoa! Hang on. I was just saying/posting what one of my local mes said a few days ago. I don't think it will go out to sea unless it starts developing big time and immediately. Haven't looked at steering lately. If the BH is in the right or (wrong) place it'll get steered into the SE US or Florida I would assume. I'm hoping it won't wait to develop into a monster farther west like is what's being shown. But I'm a big enough weather "Dork" as someone said earlier, to hang around and watch what happens. :) Phew! Tough crowd this morning. I'm gonna start all over again.

Good Morning Everyone! Lol.



oh :) ok cool i was just fishing for some good news. sorry about that :)
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ALERT ATCF MIL 93X XXX 110818060000
2011081806
16.0 280.4
16.0 274.2
100
15.5 282.0
181200
1108181200
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT21 KNGU 181200
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0N 79.6W TO 16.0N 85.8W WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED 155NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS AND PRODUCING MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE
REGION. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO INDICATIONS OF A CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION,
HOWEVER SURFACE PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS. CURRENT DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION AS OF 18/0545Z IS T1.5/2.0. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 83
TO 85 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS MAY
ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
BY 191200Z.//
9311081000 96N 135W 20
9311081006 98N 150W 20
9311081012 99N 165W 20
9311081018 100N 180W 20
9311081100 102N 195W 20
9311081106 104N 210W 20
9311081112 106N 228W 25
9311081118 108N 246W 25
9311081200 110N 265W 25
9311081206 112N 284W 25
9311081212 113N 300W 25
9311081218 113N 315W 25
9311081300 116N 326W 25
9311081306 117N 339W 25
9311081312 120N 370W 20
9311081318 122N 395W 20
9311081400 123N 425W 20
9311081406 125N 454W 20
9311081412 128N 481W 20
9311081418 130N 506W 20
9311081500 132N 529W 20
9311081506 134N 551W 20
9311081512 135N 573W 25
9311081518 136N 593W 25
9311081600 136N 613W 25
9311081606 137N 634W 25
9311081612 138N 654W 25
9311081618 141N 674W 25
9311081700 144N 694W 25
9311081706 147N 713W 25
9311081712 149N 733W 25
9311081718 151N 749W 25
9311081800 153N 765W 25
9311081806 155N 780W 25

The system is not making that anticipated "slow down" as some people thought yesterday. Still going at a good clip.
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Quoting odinslightning:
athomeintx where are you seeing a trough dropping down to pull the pre-97L away from land? all models I have seen have lined up showing a neutral environment with no troughs. Thats why predictions are for an eastern seaboard runner as a major cat making landfall twice (fla and s. carolina/ga). in addition steering wind models on all levels suggest the eastern seaboard solution. just curious to know how you are determining this is going to recurve away from land and go extra-trop?


Whoa! Hang on. I was just saying/posting what one of my local mets said a few days ago. I don't think it will go out to sea unless it starts developing big time and immediately. Haven't looked at steering lately. If the BH is in the right or (wrong) place it'll get steered into the SE US or Florida I would assume. I'm hoping it won't wait to develop into a monster farther west like is what's being shown. But I'm a big enough weather "Dork" as someone said earlier, to hang around and watch what happens. :) Phew! Tough crowd this morning. I'm gonna start all over again.

Good Morning Everyone! Lol.
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I know we cant trust the models totally but what Category is pressure of 982
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.
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ty keeper and orca. good to see u all are still around. i have been gone for a year. good to see nea is still around. im glad the wishcasters and trollers haven't run off the talent in this blog :)
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2711. NASA101
Look at the 850 mb vorticity with the wave just exiting Africa at 10N..
Link
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.