Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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NHC preliminary track on 93L is just north of the coast of Honduras.
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2809. xcool
angiest- Some bring in to Gulf
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Quoting islander101010:
some people say the haiti side of hispanola is cursed i dont think so. the reason its so bad is the island happens to be in the course of the cape verde systems. year after year decade after decade centuries as soon as they recover somewhat another storm moves in no wonder they cant get on their feet. so here we go again



storms also make huge catastrophes in Haiti because the Haitians have cut down 98%+ of all of the trees to use for firewood and to make things. Landslides cause huge fatalities and the D.R. still has it's trees, so they don't have as bad of a problem when alot of rain falls in a short time.
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Dr. Masters has those on this site somewhere.


Just found them. You're right, they are here. I should have snooped around for them in advance... Thanks!!
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2806. Matt74
Quoting TerraNova:


For Matt - keep in mind that SHIPS specifically has two runs: one that takes into account land interaction (DSHIPS) and one that completely ignores it (SHIPS). The model graph below shows that difference pretty well:

Thanks. I did not know that. I learn something everyday on here.
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2805. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
2804. MahFL
Pre 97L is coming onto the main Tropical sat page now.





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2803. angiest
Quoting xcool:


00z Euro Ensemble mean



Does that show the TC in the central GOM? Or is it the low just off the coast of Florida?
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CMC, GFDL and GFS all take Fernanda into Hawaii as a TD in 4 days. At least they'll enjoy the rain.
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Mid Level Shear.


Current Wind Shear.


Shear Tendency.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Im out for now..
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Quoting redwagon:

There actually is a tiny naked swirl directly N of the Yucatan. TCFP has colored the area purple. Not a lot of moisture to work with, plus that 10K ft high wall of pressure, but it's cute anyway.
Could be a Hermine if not for all the GOM problems.



maybe a record breaker for the smallest known hurricane on record diameter wise? lol
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some people say the haiti side of hispanola is cursed i dont think so. the reason its so bad is the island happens to be in the course of the cape verde systems. year after year decade after decade centuries as soon as they recover somewhat another storm moves in no wonder they cant get on their feet. so here we go again
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Quoting whepton3:


I noticed you guys discussing surge zones... where can I find those maps? Curious as to how Palm Beach Co. sets up.


Dr. Masters has those on this site somewhere.
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2796. xcool


06z GFS Ensemble
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2795. angiest
Quoting USAFwxguy:
Cold cloudtops near suspected area of LLC



The TWOAT indicates it is moving around 15-20kts, but it seems like it has slowed more than that. Has it or do I need more caffeine?
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2794. Patrap
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting Neapolitan:

That's pretty amazing. It's hard to imagine a saltwater surge ruining the tomato fields near Immokalee, but I suppose it's hypothetically possible...

FWIW, I'm in a 'B' (Cat 2) zone.


I noticed you guys discussing surge zones... where can I find those maps? Curious as to how Palm Beach Co. sets up.
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2792. xcool


00z Euro Ensemble mean
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I am off for now. Have a nice morning
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Quoting MarcoIslandCat5:
WOW this surprised me look how far inland Collier County could be affected in a worst case storm surge senario Scary Stuff!!!

That's pretty amazing. It's hard to imagine a saltwater surge ruining the tomato fields near Immokalee, but I suppose it's hypothetically possible...

FWIW, I'm in a 'B' (Cat 2) zone.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13803
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
INV/AOI/XXL
MARK
13.89N/39.93W


That is a monster wave. If and when it sheds that Sal it has scary potential! Size wise
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Quoting 69Viking:


There is a better chance a hurricane would churn up the waters and help to break up and dissipate the oil sheen.

There actually is a tiny naked swirl directly N of the Yucatan. TCFP has colored the area purple. Not a lot of moisture to work with, plus that 10K ft high wall of pressure, but it's cute anyway.
Could be a Hermine if not for all the GOM problems.
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I took this picture last week when a storm rolled through.
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Quoting ncstorm:


LOL..it was a rough morning wasnt it?


Lol. Yeah. Good Morning NC. :)
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Slowly getting better organized.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
93L looks to be movin WNW condition here should get worse as the hours pass by


No more than the odd rain shower we always get. This is way South of us by about 200 miles
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



I don't like he timing its around August 24th-25th time, Andrew 8/24/92, Katrina 8/25/2005 we have bad luck on those days!
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Quoting kshipre1:
not to touch on this topic again but if someone does disagree with me, please let me know.

does anyone see a strong enough trough about mid to late week next week?

you would think even Dr. Masters would have mentioned something about that if it were the in case (in relation to potential future Irene and landfall threat)

I reiterate again....if the pattern does set up the way it is supposed to about a week to 10 days from now and if the models into next week continue to converge on a Florida hit..... THEN FLORIDA IS IN TROUBLE no matter how you look at it

not trying to jump ahead or freak anyone out of course :)



what i have heard is the prevailing expected overall north atlantic trend is for a neutral environment. la nina is for all intents and purposes not in effect, and neither is el nino. usually forecast models historically show that when we have an environment like we have and what is expected to set up over the next 10-14 days (if not longer) historically sends disturbances directly west if they are weak, and they tend to recurve near the islands towards fla if they are stronger in nature. i believe thats one of the main reasons the models are lining up.

i also saw some runs of expected jet stream interaction and there weren't any expected troughs in the next week or two, so everyone....is kinda getting itchy down here in the deep southeast on the coastline....lol
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2780. MahFL
The extreme drought areas in TX went down a bit, to 74.5% from 78.26%, but the overall moderate % of dought went up from 99.48% to 99.72%.




Link
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2779. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
2778. Patrap
93L still,as it always has,,struggles with the Dry environment around it.


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2777. Matt74
Quoting extreme236:


The SHIPS at least tends to overdue intensity for invests, but once a system develops it is more accurate.
Ok Thanks.
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93L looks to be movin WNW condition here should get worse as the hours pass by
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12717
2775. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting Orcasystems:


That's exactly what the SHIPS is showing other then the SHIPS has it as a CAT1


I think that is a little on the strong side as proximity to the coast of Honduras will initially interfere with strengthening. In any event we don't have a TD yet so let's see what happens today.
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Quoting Matt74:
For a small system that was a pretty intense storm. For the people that have never been through a hurricane i don't think they realize how rough even a cat 1 can be. That being said I still would take one as long as it brings a good amount of rain.


You're not alone there. I'm sure many of us in the drought zone wouldn't mind that trade off. Nothing monstrous, just a good tropical soaker. And boy you're not lying about him being a rough one! I think he would've have done a lot more damage if he hadn't come on the tails of Hurricane Rita. A cat one is nothing to mess with.
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Morning.

I see we have some non-contributors here attacking people again....

Folks. There is a possibility of a major storm in the ATL which is likely to impact the basin with multiple landfalls. Why are we talking about blogger spelling?

May I ask, kindly, that you find something else to do in life. There are storms to talk about, I believe.

And a word on Taz. A lot of the negative comments attacking him are coming from newbies or, frankly, non-contributors. Nobody's perfect. If you have a problem with his spelling to the point that you have to waste 30 blog posts on it, [Ignore] is your friend. However, Taz has earned his stripes on this blog. His contributions here may not seem like much to you, but those of us who have been around long enough have learned there is value to them.
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2771. SLU
Inspite of the higher chances of development stated by the NHC, 93L looks in poor condition this morning. There is no evidence of a low level circulation in satellite imagery and the system which had a strong circulation aloft over the last few days has had the mid level low disintegrate overnight. This is why it no longer has the cyclonic appearance on satellite pictures and looks more like a shapeless blob of convection now.

I find it hard to see the recon finding a closed circulation today ....
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Quoting extreme236:


The SHIPS at least tends to overdue intensity for invests, but once a system develops it is more accurate.


For Matt - keep in mind that SHIPS specifically has two runs: one that takes into account land interaction (DSHIPS) and one that completely ignores it (SHIPS). The model graph below shows that difference pretty well:

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WOW this surprised me look how far inland Collier County could be affected in a worst case storm surge senario Scary Stuff!!!
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2767. Patrap
There are no US Landfall threats..

There isnt even a Depression in the Basin.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
2766. ncstorm
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Whoa! Hang on. I was just saying/posting what one of my local mets said a few days ago. I don't think it will go out to sea unless it starts developing big time and immediately. Haven't looked at steering lately. If the BH is in the right or (wrong) place it'll get steered into the SE US or Florida I would assume. I'm hoping it won't wait to develop into a monster farther west like is what's being shown. But I'm a big enough weather "Dork" as someone said earlier, to hang around and watch what happens. :) Phew! Tough crowd this morning. I'm gonna start all over again.

Good Morning Everyone! Lol.


LOL..it was a rough morning wasnt it?
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Quoting USAFwxguy:


I mean if it goes sub-1000mb ... weakness is more of a player



I looked at that but it is along way from sub 1000. By the time the pressure gets to that, if it does, the system will be committed to a track just N of W into Belize. It will also be reasonably close to the coast. If anything the worst case track would be the Mexican Yucatan but I do not see that at this time
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not to touch on this topic again but if someone does disagree with me, please let me know.

does anyone see a strong enough trough about mid to late week next week?

you would think even Dr. Masters would have mentioned something about that if it were the in case (in relation to potential future Irene and landfall threat)

I reiterate again....if the pattern does set up the way it is supposed to about a week to 10 days from now and if the models into next week continue to converge on a Florida hit..... THEN FLORIDA IS IN TROUBLE no matter how you look at it

not trying to jump ahead or freak anyone out of course :)
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1133
Quoting Patrap:



look at how pre-97L has chewed through the SAL in front of it within the past 24 hrs. Also a pronounced enhancement in rotation in the broad area of low pressure. when this thing starts winding up it has a ton of low pressure to consolidate, and here comes the nitro-85 degree waters soon.....


kinda reminds me of the broad basin of low pressure that formed Igor last year.
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2762. Matt74
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Whoa! Hang on. I was just saying/posting what one of my local mets said a few days ago. I don't think it will go out to sea unless it starts developing big time and immediately. Haven't looked at steering lately. If the BH is in the right or (wrong) place it'll get steered into the SE US or Florida I would assume. I'm hoping it won't wait to develop into a monster farther west like is what's being shown. But I'm a big enough weather "Dork" as someone said earlier, to hang around and watch what happens. :) Phew! Tough crowd this morning. I'm gonna start all over again.

Good Morning Everyone! Lol.
Lol. Athome They obviously didn't read your post too good.
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2761. angiest
Quoting zawxdsk:


Maybe a Tropical Storm like Allison would help you out. 45 inches of rain just might catch Texas back up to normal levels...


That would fall too fast and run off. But it would help lake levels if it fell inland.
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93L is passing thru a frontal boundary.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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