Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
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Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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Quoting hydrus:
All the models have grabbed this wave, intensified it, and move it into our general direction. The pattern and climatology alone is reason enough to be concerned. The models are just possible scenarios.


In that case I concur.
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I don't think I've ever seen anything bigger than this spinning in the Atlantic. Compare with 93L on the extreme left.


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on the TX drought--even our wetlands have dried up. I haven't seen it like this in so many years. Our birds really depend on the wetlands for fish, shrimp, crabs, etc. and there's nothing for them. It's pretty sad because we had so many birds nesting here this spring.
I don't want a hurricane, but right now I think we'd take a Cat 1 if it brought some rain. We're desperate.
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Lets see today is wednesday..the system should be affecting the islands by Sunday..shouldnt a hurricane reconnaisance plan be set in motion for the AOI in the eastern atlantic?
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I was hoping that Tx might get some relief from 93. Doesn't look like that's going to happen.
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Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
sorry for this crazy question and if someone can answer it, that would be great.

I do not have access to the models you all see but do any of the models see a trough say approx 10-12 days from now (the time when the current african wave is supposed to strike the SE CONUS?)

I have only been hearing things about a building high and not so much about upcoming troughs about 240 hours from now, thanks
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
yea 600 miles over very warm waters combined with no wind shear to speak of look out central america ,cause its spinning up real fast and tight
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101. JRRP
114h

126
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Quoting Grothar:
Since no one believes in any of the models, tracks, forecasts, data, etc. I say we post cartoons until a system is 2 hours off of the coast before posting anything. This way conjecture, thoughts, ideas, progession and can be removed from the equation and we can all be surprised.



:-)
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Quoting kshipre1:
entering the caribbean? interesting. models must see it as a weaker system pushing further south

it's always showed it entering the Caribbean then heading wnw towards PR and Hispanoila.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

SAL is getting patchy. Note that really clear area between 45W and 60W....

How many runs is this now that several models have shown something running PR/DR/TCI/Bahamas? 4 or 5 in a row???

Also noting the interesting ridge feature extending across the FL Straits practically to the Yucatan. Sho' nuff going to keep anything from going to the Gulf in the sort term. I'm starting to think 93L's best chance of hurricane is in the southern GoM...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21899
Quoting CorneliaMarie:
Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.



when did Texas start keeping records?



Official records have been kept since 1895.
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96. jpsb
Quoting Neapolitan:
From the previous blog entry:

If it's true that land masses rise and fall, doesn't that make it all the more intriguing, then, that sea levels are predominantly rising? That is, wouldn't one expect rises and falls to be roughly equal over time?

Anyway, here's some satellite data for you. Now, this obviously only goes back to 1993, of course, so I suppose it's possible global sea levels suddenly started moving up that year after many decades of being level, but I'm doubting it... ;-)

Uh-oh

Lots of great info here.


Not sure about world wide, but North America is still rebounding from the last ice age (rising). I suspect that sea levels rise and fall too, in cycles for various reasons. I think it is a good bet that the climate is changing, I think it is a good bet that the climate is always changing. Warming would not surprise me or worry me since we are in an inter glacial.

I fear cooling much more then warming. In earths history there has never been a case of run away global warming but there has been a case of runaway global cooling (Snow Ball Earth). Now we did come close to runaway global warming 225 million years ago, but that took 1 million years of the most massive volcanic activity we know about (see Siberian Flats). However only 25,000 years ago we had mini runaway cooling. I also note the massive snowfalls in North America in recent years and lack of complete melting this spring and wonder if maybe we are really looking at a cooling.

Seems the heat is mainly at lower latitudes while the higher latitudes are cooling. It is all very confusing :)

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12Z GFS 102HR (affecting the norther Leeward Islands) by Sunday afternoon:

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93. LBAR
Quoting GTcooliebai:


You mean this:



here is the loop Link


It's morphing the ITCZ. Will be huge.
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Quoting Grothar:


Thanks, hydrus. But why should we be concerned with a little cloud 3,000 miles away. It means nothing. Why should we even look when it doesn't affect us? Oops, I lost my sarcasm flag.
All the models have grabbed this wave, intensified it, and move it into our general direction. The pattern and climatology alone is reason enough to be concerned. The models are just possible scenarios.
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entering the caribbean? interesting. models must see it as a weaker system pushing further south
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, August 17th, with Video
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Here's some not-so-great nearly apocalyptic news for Texas from NWS:
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
500 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2011

...HEAT BAKES NORTH TEXAS AS DROUGHT WORSENS...

------------------------------------------------- -------------------
SYNOPSIS...

OCTOBER 2010 TO JULY 2011 WAS THE DRIEST OF ANY 10-MONTH PERIOD ON
RECORD FOR TEXAS. (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS JUNE 1917 TO MARCH 1918.)
THE STATEWIDE EXTENT OF EXTREME (D3) AND EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) IS
CURRENTLY AT ALL-TIME RECORD LEVELS.

THE PARCHED EARTH HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO SOAR...RESULTING IN
ONE OF THE HOTTEST SUMMERS ON RECORD. JUNE AND JULY WERE BOTH THE
WARMEST ON RECORD FOR THE STATE. WACO RECORDED ITS LONGEST EVER
STREAK OF CONSECUTIVE TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGHS...AND DALLAS/FORT WORTH IS
ON PACE TO ECLIPSE THE HOTTEST SUMMER ON RECORD...1980.

ALL OF NORTH TEXAS IS NOW IN AT LEAST SEVERE DROUGHT (D2)...WITH THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN EXTREME OR EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT. WATER
RESOURCES HAVE DECREASED DRAMATICALLY THIS SUMMER...AND CROP LOSSES
WILL LIKELY SET RECORD DOLLAR AMOUNTS.

THE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE SUMMER...WITH
THE DROUGHT CONTINUING UNABATED WELL INTO THE UPCOMING AUTUMN. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER DRY LA NINA WINTER...THERE IS LITTLE TO
SUGGEST ANY END TO THE DROUGHT.
- - - - - - - - - -
PASTURE AND RANGELAND CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ACROSS THE
STATE...WITH 94 PERCENT NOW RATED AS POOR OR VERY POOR. HAY
SUPPLEMENTATION IS WIDESPREAD...WITH NEARLY ALL HAY IMPORTED FROM
OTHER STATES. IN ADDITION TO ADEQUATE FORAGE...CATTLE REQUIRE
SEVERAL GALLONS OF DRINKING WATER A DAY. NOT SURPRISINGLY...HERDS
CONTINUE TO BE CULLED...WITH SOME RANCHERS REPORTING COMPLETE
LIQUIDATION. SOME CATTLE HAVE BEEN RELOCATED TO GREENER PASTURES AS
FAR AWAY AS WYOMING.

WARM SEASON CROPS CONTINUE TO SUFFER. STATEWIDE...ONLY 8 PERCENT OF
CORN IS IN GOOD CONDITION. IN THE IMPORTANT CORN-GROWING REGION OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...MOST CORN HAS FAILED. IN ADDITION...MOST OF THE
COTTON PLANTED IN TEXAS THIS YEAR HAS BEEN ABANDONED...AN ESTIMATED
LOSS IN EXCESS OF 2 BILLION DOLLARS. DROUGHT-TOLERANT SORGHUM WAS
MOSTLY IN FAIR CONDITION OR BETTER. FARMERS CONTINUE TO REPORT CROP
DAMAGE FROM FERAL HOGS AND OTHER ANIMALS. IN SEARCH OF WATER...
ANIMALS AND INSECTS ARE INCREASINGLY ENCROACHING ON URBAN AREAS AND
IRRIGATED LAND. STATEWIDE AGRICULTURAL LOSSES THIS YEAR MAY BE
DOUBLE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 4.1 BILLION DOLLARS IN 2006.
- - - - - - - - - -
FOR MANY NORTH TEXAS RESIDENTS...THE TRANSITION FROM VOLUNTARY
CONSERVATION TO WATER RESTRICTIONS HAS ALREADY BEGUN.

Read the complete and unedited piece here.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
Quoting CorneliaMarie:
28. angiest 11:42 AM EDT on August 17, 2011 +1
Quoting CorneliaMarie:
Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.



when did Texas start keeping records?



Houston's records go back to the 1880's or 1890's as I recall.





And is this new record attributed to Manmade Global Warming?


Fact is, it wouldn't make any difference if the records went back a thousand years. You'd still quibble about it.
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Quoting AussieStorm:


Time: 15:46:30Z
Coordinates: 17.2167N 66.2W
Acft. Static Air Press: 392.9 mb (~ 11.60 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,740 meters (~ 25,394 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 428 meters (~ 1,404 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 90 at 7 knots (From the E at ~ 8.0 mph)
Air Temp: -18.0C* (~ -0.4F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 7 knots (~ 8.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -


Time: 15:56:30Z
Coordinates: 16.9833N 67.1W
Acft. Static Air Press: 392.7 mb (~ 11.60 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,744 meters (~ 25,407 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 429 meters (~ 1,407 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 120 at 2 knots (From the ESE at ~ 2.3 mph)
Air Temp: -17.5C* (~ 0.5F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 2 knots (~ 2.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
(*) Denotes suspect data
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting hydrus:


Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


I like the plan.



LOL. Yes, at least that is informative.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
CPC Tropical Hazards

Maybe they'll mention it in the TWO, and even bring out the crayons.
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Quoting kmanislander:
Shear in the Atlantic over that wave is now up to 30 knots. Nothing of consequence is going to happen out there any time soon.


Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
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all I can say is that if that High that the guy at Crown Weather is talking about actually positions itself where it is supposed to, that could be trouble for florida

I know things can change this far out but since most of those systems move westward up until at least Puerto Rico or Haiti, with a strong high above it, hard to see any other direction other than westward potentially threatening land
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
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Quoting hydrus:


Thanks, hydrus. But why should we be concerned with a little cloud 3,000 miles away. It means nothing. Why should we even look when it doesn't affect us? Oops, I lost my sarcasm flag.
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Quoting hydrus:
System off of Africa 240 hours out...


CLinkcheck out the 06 gfs, similar in about 8 days, only little more west. basic track several runs in a row. The 00z just now coming out. But the model you posted is now on board as well. And another one just off africa as well. Could be an interesting two weeks ahead. . . . and beyond
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Quoting SCwannabe:


Ehhh, like your picture!


Same back at you!

Glad to see the HH heading out there, this thing looks to be in the process of starting to wrap up into a storm but doesn't look like it will be a problem for the U.S. or blessing for TX if it keeps chugging straight West.
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CPC Tropical Hazards

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
GFS seems to have more convection with the CATL wave this go around.



In this run... yes. It sure does look it has a better moisture content than past runs and if that keeps up... then it could be portrayed as a deeper system as it enters the Carib.
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Shear in the Atlantic over that wave is now up to 30 knots. Nothing of consequence is going to happen out there any time soon.

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
93L appears to be very close to a tropical depression. It should become one later today.

Doesn't have much time to strengthen though.


632 Miles to the Nic/Hond border and 955 miles to central Yucatin i dunno just sayin!!
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Quoting Grothar:


Hi, hydrus. Someone posted a link right before the update of the large swirl in the Atlantic associated with the wave. I wish they could repost it. As the Doc mentioned, it may not have much convection, but a lot of spin. As you know, those usually turn out to be the bad ones when the come pat 60W. Usually I step out on a limb, but I am going to wait until there is a little more convection building. I do feel it might run alittle higher than 93L did, because of its possible strength.


You mean this:



here is the loop Link
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Quoting Grothar:
Since no one believes in any of the models, tracks, forecasts, data, etc. I say we post cartoons until a system is 2 hours off of the coast before posting anything. This way conjecture, thoughts, ideas, progession and can be removed from the equation and we can all be surprised.


I like the plan.

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thanks Dr. Masters

btw @ post#63
I can't resist but in reading your post, I keep thinking you're calling Dr. M, "Dr. Pretty" lol!
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
93L appears to be very close to a tropical depression. It should become one later today.

Doesn't have much time to strengthen though.

I disagree (somewhat). Wilma went to TS to Cat 5 virtually overnight, around the same area, so I would say yes it is possible for this system to get its act together. (But I understood what you meant..running out of water area...approaching land quickly)
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GFS seems to have more convection with the CATL wave this go around.

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Quoting Grothar:


Hi, hydrus. Someone posted a link right before the update of the large swirl in the Atlantic associated with the wave. I wish they could repost it. As the Doc mentioned, it may not have much convection, but a lot of spin. As you know, those usually turn out to be the bad ones when the come pat 60W. Usually I step out on a limb, but I am going to wait until there is a little more convection building. I do feel it might run alittle higher than 93L did, because of its possible strength.
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Since no one believes in any of the models, tracks, forecasts, data, etc. I say we post cartoons until a system is 2 hours off of the coast before posting anything. This way conjecture, thoughts, ideas, progession and can be removed from the equation and we can all be surprised.
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Thanks Dr. Pretty amazing to note how you have to look at all of the types Satt loops to get a good handle on a disturbance. Pursuant to your comment as to the wave out at 34W, if you just look at the rainbow loops, you would think that the wave is centered down near the convection below 10N but the vis loops are invaluable in determining the location of a lower level center of circulation as well as upper level features such as approximate sheer values.
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Looks like we are going to have a depression soon. HH should go out to investigate.
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93L appears to be very close to a tropical depression. It should become one later today.

Doesn't have much time to strengthen though.

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Nobody's talking about this???





Well, that seems to put paid to 93Ls chances to be more than a TS....... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21899

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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