Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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Quoting Grothar:
Since no one believes in any of the models, tracks, forecasts, data, etc. I say we post cartoons until a system is 2 hours off of the coast before posting anything. This way conjecture, thoughts, ideas, progession and can be removed from the equation and we can all be surprised.


chuckle for the day
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Quoting Grothar:
I am just posting an image. I did not take the picture personally. It is from the NOAA site. I have no opinion of 93L either way. I don't know where it it going or how strong it will be. As far as I know the coloring was not done by Ted Turner. I just thought someone might like to see a close up of what 93L looks like. I also do not claim the accuruacy of this image.



I must have missed what has angered you, but I like hearing your opinions and would like for you to start sharing them again. :-)
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new member of the asylum here. hi everyone
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I think the HH might find 93L LLCOC further N maybe near 15.6N 74.2W moving W-WNW


Quoting Levi32:
The steering currents have bent more WSW in the western Caribbean ahead of 93L, and are looking to bring it into central America farther south than expected. Honduras and Nicaragua may now be the ones that have to deal with 93L. The good news is that a landfall there would reduce the system's time over water, and thus it would be weaker at landfall. Belize should still be on the lookout in case 93L strengthens and tracks a tad farther north, but a landfall in Honduras could still bring effects to Belize as it tracks westward and inland.

The models have also been forced to shift south and are in agreement with this scenario.



with that models run I would go with the CLP5
I really don't think to continued W-WSW track will follow through I say maybe even a bit further N than the CLP5 would be the track
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Quoting CorneliaMarie:
28. angiest 11:42 AM EDT on August 17, 2011 +1
Quoting CorneliaMarie:
Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.



when did Texas start keeping records?



Houston's records go back to the 1880's or 1890's as I recall.





And is this new record attributed to Manmade Global Warming?


According to most people.

Of course, these records don't mention the heat waves of the 1700's.
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Quoting fsumet:


NOGAPS is no longer considered a reliable model. It has been taken off the list at the NHC from the TVCN for the Atlantic. It still has some skill for the Pacific, so it remains there. So now the TVCN is now the TVCA for the Atlantic.


Dr. Masters thinks its reliable, so I'm rolling with the DOC on this one..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14581
Quoting WarEagle8:

Could this mean rut row?


Yes it does for sure....

"Rut Row"

Taco :o)
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Quoting Grothar:


E. No opinion
Why you dont have opinion on anything?
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Quoting Levi32:


It's a front, and a large one. It's supposed to stick around for a few days so we should probably warily watch it, but I don't really see anything significant coming out of it in terms of tropical development.


Thanks Levi!!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14581
93l looks like it might have slowed some and moving more north of west now, jmo
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Quoting ncstorm:
12Z NOGAPS is running now and its now developing the African wave..so that pretty much has all the reliable models predicting development..


NOGAPS is no longer considered a reliable model. It has been taken off the list at the NHC from the TVCN for the Atlantic. It still has some skill for the Pacific, so it remains there. So now the TVCN is now the TVCA for the Atlantic.
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Quoting winter123:

As long as that high is over tx storms will either move due west into Mexico or be caught up in the east coast trough and miss land entirely.


Have to disagree, the high is built in far enough west that it would steer storms inland.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
Quoting jpsb:


Not sure about world wide, but North America is still rebounding from the last ice age (rising). I suspect that sea levels rise and fall too, in cycles for various reasons. I think it is a good bet that the climate is changing, I think it is a good bet that the climate is always changing. Warming would not surprise me or worry me since we are in an inter glacial.

I fear cooling much more then warming. In earths history there has never been a case of run away global warming but there has been a case of runaway global cooling (Snow Ball Earth). Now we did come close to runaway global warming 225 million years ago, but that took 1 million years of the most massive volcanic activity we know about (see Siberian Flats). However only 25,000 years ago we had mini runaway cooling. I also note the massive snowfalls in North America in recent years and lack of complete melting this spring and wonder if maybe we are really looking at a cooling.

Seems the heat is mainly at lower latitudes while the higher latitudes are cooling. It is all very confusing :)



Unless there was an iceage in the last 100 years, I don't believe there ever was one.
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Quoting Levi32:
The steering currents have bent more WSW in the western Caribbean ahead of 93L, and are looking to bring it into central America farther south than expected. Honduras and Nicaragua may now be the ones that have to deal with 93L. The good news is that a landfall there would reduce the system's time over water, and thus it would be weaker at landfall. Belize should still be on the lookout in case 93L strengthens and tracks a tad farther north, but a landfall in Honduras could still bring effects to Belize as it tracks westward and inland.

The models have also been forced to shift south and are in agreement with this scenario.


If it hits south Belize then moves wsw it could be yet another epac storm!
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ok, thanks. lol
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145. JRRP
max winds 85.4073kt

06z GFS
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GFS 12Z 168 hours (Wind Shear)

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Quoting ncstorm:


Hey Levi,

What do you think of the area off the SE coast currently and if that develops, would that play a role in the african wave track?


It's a front, and a large one. It's supposed to stick around for a few days so we should probably warily watch it, but I don't really see anything significant coming out of it in terms of tropical development.
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12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127628
That ULL to the East of 93L is rapidly retro-grading and moving in tandem with it.......Follow the low and that is where 93L is probably going to end up..
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12Z NOGAPS is running now and its now developing the African wave..so that pretty much has all the reliable models predicting development..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14581
137. jpsb
Quoting Levi32:
The steering currents have bent more WSW in the western Caribbean ahead of 93L,
That sucks! I was so hoping 93L might bring us some rain here in Texas. Oh well, be back later, hoping some miracle happens and Texas gets some rain.
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Quoting usa777:
I was hoping that Tx might get some relief from 93. Doesn't look like that's going to happen.

As long as that high is over tx storms will either move due west into Mexico or be caught up in the east coast trough and miss land entirely. This has been the pattern for a number of years. Since 06 basically.
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Quoting gugi182:
If this system in the Atlantic actually develops into something before this Sunday or gets classified by the NHC where do you think it will head and what classification do you give it?

A. Invest
B. Tropical Depression
C. Tropical Storm
D. Hurricane


E. No opinion
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Quoting gugi182:
I was watching the local news here where i live in Puerto Rico and they just started to say to keep in eye on the tropics this week because many models are picking up on a wave in the Atlantic is there any truth about that i just don't want to be alarmed on something that might not develop. As we see there is something destroying this storms and i won't believe this information until at least i see another invest classified in the Atlantic.
This is the time of year when keeping an eye on the tropics is a good thing. This year it seems like a fairly good chance that we will have some kind of tropical wx impact the Greater Antilles and Bahamas, so the news people aren't far off. Stay tuned, I guess.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21517
According to Google Earth, recon has been in SE winds for awhile. If what I am seeing is current, that at least appears to be the correct direction if 93L has a large circulation.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting Levi32:
The steering currents have bent more WSW in the western Caribbean ahead of 93L, and are looking to bring it into central America farther south than expected. Honduras and Nicaragua may now be the ones that have to deal with 93L. The good news is that a landfall there would reduce the system's time over water, and thus it would be weaker at landfall. Belize should still be on the lookout in case 93L strengthens and tracks a tad farther north, and a landfall in Honduras could still bring effects to Belize as it tracks westward and inland.

The models have also been forced to shift south and are in agreement with this scenario.



Hey Levi,

What do you think of the area off the SE coast currently and if that develops, would that play a role in the african wave track?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14581
The forecast is for fernanda to dissipate but the satellite presentation is fantastic and a new burst of convection right over the center. I think Hawaii should keep an eye out!
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ok thanks for your help. no, you are not being rude.. did not take it that way

I was just asking because I did not see model runs from the ECMWF and UKMET. only GFS
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I am just posting an image. I did not take the picture personally. It is from the NOAA site. I have no opinion of 93L either way. I don't know where it it going or how strong it will be. As far as I know the coloring was not done by Ted Turner. I just thought someone might like to see a close up of what 93L looks like. I also do not claim the accuruacy of this image.

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If this system in the Atlantic actually develops into something before this Sunday or gets classified by the NHC where do you think it will head and what classification do you give it?

A. Invest
B. Tropical Depression
C. Tropical Storm
D. Hurricane
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Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127628
The steering currents have bent more WSW in the western Caribbean ahead of 93L, and are looking to bring it into central America farther south than expected. Honduras and Nicaragua may now be the ones that have to deal with 93L. The good news is that a landfall there would reduce the system's time over water, and thus it would be weaker at landfall. Belize should still be on the lookout in case 93L strengthens and tracks a tad farther north, but a landfall in Honduras could still bring effects to Belize as it tracks westward and inland.

The models have also been forced to shift south and are in agreement with this scenario.

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00z CMC

Landfall in FL

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ok thanks
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Quoting kshipre1:
sorry for this crazy question and if someone can answer it, that would be great.

I do not have access to the models you all see but do any of the models see a trough say approx 10-12 days from now (the time when the current african wave is supposed to strike the SE CONUS?)

I have only been hearing things about a building high and not so much about upcoming troughs about 240 hours from now, thanks




if you loook at the commets on the blogs when evere new mode runs comes out we post them here on the blogs all you have too do is follow the blogers and there commets when evere they post the mode runs here in the blog all so if you look at commet post 101 you see some mode runs posted and most of your ?s will be ander when you look at the mode run and read the bloger commets under them


i hop this helps and i hop i was not being rude
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Quoting Grothar:


In that case I concur.


I agree as well. It's that time of year, but I fear this one may be a monster.
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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, August 17th, with Video


Good analysis, Thank You.
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Quoting kshipre1:
sorry for this crazy question and if someone can answer it, that would be great.

I do not have access to the models you all see but do any of the models see a trough say approx 10-12 days from now (the time when the current african wave is supposed to strike the SE CONUS?)

I have only been hearing things about a building high and not so much about upcoming troughs about 240 hours from now, thanks


Here is a good link to some of the models but a bit of advise. Do not obsess over every run on any particular system 5-10 days out; it will drive you mad......

Link
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To further illustrate how hot it is in Austin, the local Austin/San Antonio NWS set up a page detailing the records. The thing that caught my eye was the range withing the top ten lists. Now remember, these records go back many years. The magnitude of the records this year is just astounding...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx/?n=100degreedays.htm.
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Quoting yonzabam:
I don't think I've ever seen anything bigger than this spinning in the Atlantic. Compare with 93L on the extreme left.




One word "Massive"
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Quoting yonzabam:
I don't think I've ever seen anything bigger than this spinning in the Atlantic. Compare with 93L on the extreme left.



Could this mean rut row?
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I was watching the local news here where i live in Puerto Rico and they just started to say to keep in eye on the tropics this week because many models are picking up on a wave in the Atlantic is there any truth about that i just don't want to be alarmed on something that might not develop. As we see there is something destroying this storms and i won't believe this information until at least i see another invest classified in the Atlantic.
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Quoting hydrus:
All the models have grabbed this wave, intensified it, and move it into our general direction. The pattern and climatology alone is reason enough to be concerned. The models are just possible scenarios.


In that case I concur.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.