Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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Quoting AllStar17:


Can it be inferred then that it is trying to work down to the surface? Excuse my ignorance.


Well it's a tropical wave so some kind of pressure fall along a latitudinal line is to be expected. It has been an area of low pressure for a while. What we're looking for is for it to close off a circulation.
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The NHC has a reasoning behind every move they make, and if one of the forecasters Fart, there's a reasoning behind that(Too many bean burritos while watching 93L). Anyhow 40% is slightly Conservative if you ask me, but the NHC has many more tools they can use which allowed them to concur that 40% is reasonable, i would've said 50%, though there could've been something I'm not capable of using(only the NHC can), that screamed out 40%!!!
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there's a low now attached to the front off of SC..

click on NCEP Fronts..

GOES Eastern US Visible Imagery
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14416
Strange is that the recon is reporting a dewpoint of -8C at 300 geopotential meters, which is 11% relative humidity at the 23C air temperature. I question that the atmosphere is actually that dry.
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Quoting Levi32:
Recon is at least finding a sharp pressure drop from 1013mb to 1010mb on the southern side of the mid-level circulation.
Which would further suggest this moving into Nicaragua/Honduras
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Quoting Levi32:
Recon is at least finding a sharp pressure drop from 1013mb to 1010mb on the southern side of the mid-level circulation.


Can it be inferred then that it is trying to work down to the surface? Excuse my ignorance.
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Quoting angiest:


Houston's records go back to the 1880's or 1890's as I recall. So we have a little over a century of instrumented records.


Houston - 1895
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Hey guys.. I know some of u follow WUindergoung and Accuweather on Twitter. Catch me @AFAcostaPA
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Looks to have a LITTLE more convection then it did yesterday.
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348. jpsb
Quoting Patrap:


Its just me maybe,,but Im gonna go with NOAA on Climate Change.

Plus I dont ski.
Sadly politics has perverted government science. A carbon tax would meant billions if not trillions of dollars for government. I think gov just can't resist the temptation of trillions in new revenue. So I tend to go with the scientists that do not have a dog in the fight, so to speak.

There are a number of natural mechanisms that can explain the little warming we saw 10 years ago without inventing a crisis that gives gov more power and more of our hard earned monies.

Just my 2 cents but I think this is all about power and money and has very little to do with climate.
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The FACT here is that the AOI in the eastern ATL is not even hatched by the NHC and so all these talks about model runs 240+ hours out is a little non-sensical..

Remember what models were initially predicting with 92L and 93L..!!

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Recon is at least finding a sharp pressure drop from 1013mb to 1010mb on the southern side of the mid-level circulation.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Even still, only a 40% chance? So, by looking at this system, the NHC is only giving it a 40% chance of developing in 48 hours? We'll see, but I still think it should be at least 20% higher.


Even the pathetic looking 92L had 40% for a couple days.
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93L seems to be living up to the general conditions this season has produced repeatedly. Weak storms that never achieve much above TD or TS status. Plus, this one looks to be in a hurry to bury itself into Central America. So, no relief for Texas and we move on to the next Apocalyptocane predicted by the models. Maybe this one will verify.
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Well now we wait.... Going to lurk, will return to posting later...
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Even still, only a 40% chance? So, by looking at this system, the NHC is only giving it a 40% chance of developing in 48 hours? We'll see, but I still think it should be at least 20% higher.
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93L needs a big burst of convection to help the MLC work down to the surface.
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Quoting jpsb:

We have seen periods of much greater temp changes in the last 2,000 years then we are seeing now. Someone has been lying to you. The Romans grew grapes in the UK, Greenland was once green, there were villages in the high Alps.

The temps we have today are not out of the ordinary. The sea level we have to day is not out of the ordinary.

AGW depends on a feed back mechanism, Hot Spots, that despite years of searching has not once, not one single time been found to exist. For those interested AGW admits that small increases in CO2 will not cause runaway warming all by itself. But the CO2 will cause local hot spots in the tropical atmosphere. A hot spot in warming due to water vapor action which is a much more potent warming gas then CO2. So without the hot spots, and no one has ever found one, there is no AGW and no runaway warming.

In order to be science a theory has to be predictable and verifiable. AGW fails at both, the predicted warming has not happened and the mechanism claimed to do the warming has not been verified.

What I find amusing is that every summer the AGW people point to record heat someplace on the Earth and say "See GLOBAL WARMING!". But every winter when people like me point to record cold we get told "it's just weather". lol, too funny.

Well, I won't bore the blog by once again responding to each item in this comment--[cue wild applause]--so I'll just say this: there's not a single issue you raised that hasn't been thoroughly addressed, responded to, and rendered scientifically invalid time and time again. WU mail me if you'd like more.

G'Day!
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13455
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hello!!!! it's in it right now, geez, open Google earth and watch it yourselves. LOL.

Why didn't they wait till recon was finished before doing a TWO?

maybe cause FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN had to run to the lew
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10936
Quoting AllStar17:


Yes. I didn't say it wasn't factual.



Nothing. I was not bashing them...I was just stating a fact.


And I didn't say you didn't. LOL
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Quoting Drakoen:


10 consecutive factual TWO.


Yes. I didn't say it wasn't factual.

Quoting Hurricanes12:


What else would you expect them to say? Lol.


Nothing. I was not bashing them...I was just stating a fact.
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Quoting Drakoen:


10 consecutive factual TWO.


Yeah, despite my beliefs earlier, that statement is correct so far.
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Both Gert and Greg have both choked off fellow disturbances:
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS MOVING SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
REMAINS MINIMAL...AND DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF TROPICAL STORM GREG.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
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that should change at the 8pm TWO and maybe as the HH continues there mission maybe they may find a closed LLCOC
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10936
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Those graphs that you have been posting are really exciting Pat.

The graphs clearly indicate that the programmers at NOAA and elsewhere are accomplished to an impressive degree when it come to displaying information in graph form.

I can hardly wait until they are allowed apply their graph making talents on true and complete data as opposed to the altered and tweaked data that they are compelled to use now.

Fiction sometimes makes for an interesting read; yet the truth is so much more fun and exciting.

There is a tingling going up my leg as I write.

I can hardly wait.


It's fact. Really, grow up and quit being ignorant.
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Well, 93L is the most beautiful mid-level cyclone I've seen...Lol. Recon still needs more time to investigate.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND PRESSURES HAVE NOT FALLEN MUCH OVER THIS REGION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT
IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM

HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH.

Hello!!!! it's in it right now, geez, open Google earth and watch it yourselves. LOL.

Why didn't they wait till recon was finished before doing a TWO?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
In Memorium,..

For the Lost and the suffered, 42 years ago tonight.




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Quoting AllStar17:
Shocker:
"HOWEVER...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND PRESSURES HAVE NOT FALLEN MUCH OVER THIS REGION."

They have said that same exact sentence for about 10 consecutive TWO's now.


What else would you expect them to say? Lol.
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Quoting AllStar17:
Shocker:
"HOWEVER...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND PRESSURES HAVE NOT FALLEN MUCH OVER THIS REGION."

They have said that same exact sentence for about 10 consecutive TWO's now.


10 consecutive factual TWO.
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allan huffman (Raleigh, NC tropical forecaster) from his tropical post today sees a trough building in great lakes region and northeast around mid week next week before lifting out and being replaced by an increasingly stronger High building into the western atlantic

will be interesting to see the timing of this along with how strong and big the next big storm (Irene?) could be
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
Quoting AllStar17:
Shocker:
"HOWEVER...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND PRESSURES HAVE NOT FALLEN MUCH OVER THIS REGION."

They have said that same exact sentence for about 10 consecutive TWO's now.
BUT acdcording to how that is worded they have no info from HH as yet. Time will tell.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Allstar if Winds are from the SE,ESE that far south in 93L, you're not gonna find a closed circulation in the north


I'm not that stupid. But they still should go to the north and see what they find there...because there isn't anything south of 15N.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Taz, does it have an "eye" yet. LOL.

Night mate! keep those pesky trolls at bay.



lol
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Allstar if Winds are from the SE,ESE that far south in 93L, you're not gonna find a closed circulation in the north
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CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND PRESSURES HAVE NOT FALLEN MUCH OVER THIS REGION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT
IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH.
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Shocker:
"HOWEVER...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND PRESSURES HAVE NOT FALLEN MUCH OVER THIS REGION."

They have said that same exact sentence for about 10 consecutive TWO's now.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



if it has a close low then yes

Taz, does it have an "eye" yet. LOL.

Night mate! keep those pesky trolls at bay.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
WELL said Grothar. I have been following this blog for a couple years and really loved watching and hearing others predictions. I FOUND SOMETHINGS rather boring and some very intelligent. So I decided to join this blog a week ago and post a few things and low and behold someone was mocking my handel. Im a big boy and can handel all that silliness.but im still going to take someone to task on personal insults. Most on here are not like that and provide helpful, and informed info,but the 10 percent personal attackers please go on facebook and do your thing there. Thats more of your forte anyway.
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Quoting scott39:
Thanks, I wasnt thinking about the MJO being more of a factor. I must have missed the part about the wave having a more defined circulation. Is wind shear hard to forecast more than 5 days out?


Yes. Upper-level features in the tropics are something that global models struggle with, and only so much can be discerned about the future from looking at current water vapor imagery.
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Quoting Levi32:


Yeah, there isn't one that far south.


Recon. needs to go north and see what is going on above 15N.
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Quoting stillwaiting:
sat prsentation suggests atleast a td right now



if it has a close low then yes
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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