Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Thank You Jeremy, very well explained.
Thanks for watching, sorry about the voice issues today, me and a couple of friends were out trout fishing all night!! LOL WOW i'm tired!!
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Quoting USAFwxguy:
Stranger things have happened, but should 93L stregthen into a sub 1000mb system in the western Caribbean, there is a gaping weakness for it to track into. Not saying there is any liklihood or not, just showing the potential.

Someone mentioned NAM going in that direction.
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Quoting USAFwxguy:
Stranger things have happened, but should 93L stregthen into a sub 1000mb system in the western Caribbean, there is a gaping weakness for it to track into. Not saying there is any liklihood or not, just showing the potential.



When you look at its motion zoomed out it looks to be moving North of due West now but without a definite closed circulation and coordinates to track that is hard to confirm.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3060
Link

93L is tightening up a bit this Pm.
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Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Tropical Update With Video


Thank you Jeremy!!
Member Since: May 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 118
Quoting extreme236:
17/1745 UTC 15.5N 74.5W T2.0/2.0 93L -- Atlantic


Based on the convective organization the reading is sound. Now 93L just needs to work that mlc down to the surface.
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Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Tropical Update With Video
Thank You Jeremy, very well explained.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Well, I won't bore the blog by once again responding to each item in this comment--[cue wild applause]--so I'll just say this: there's not a single issue you raised that hasn't been thoroughly addressed, responded to, and rendered scientifically invalid time and time again. WU mail me if you'd like more.

G'Day!


It's easy to ping pong theories, but as a hypersensitive I cannot stay in cities more than a few days due to pollution, while I feel wonderful taking in the clean, luxurious oxygen on a Caribbean island dot in the ocean - experience overrides every argument.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


False...


?
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Rick Perry does not believe in Global Warming..
(Maybe he should spend more time in Texas...)

Texas Gov. Rick Perry, the red-hot candidate for the Republican president nomination, scoffed at global warming at a breakfast meeting with business leaders in Bedford, N.H., this morning.

Perry said the whole concept of global warming was based on scientists manipulating data, according to the Associated Press.

That view puts Perry outside of Republican orthodoxy that recognizes the global warming phenomenon but holds that any role of human contributions to warming is still unknown.

Perry also told the gathering that the federal government shouldn’t spend a lot of money pursuing scientific theories.

Link
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POSS T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/93L
MARK
15.21N/74.78W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54616
Quoting extreme236:
17/1745 UTC 15.5N 74.5W T2.0/2.0 93L -- Atlantic


False...
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Quoting extreme236:
17/1745 UTC 15.5N 74.5W T2.0/2.0 93L -- Atlantic


Interesting.
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17/1745 UTC 15.5N 74.5W T2.0/2.0 93L -- Atlantic
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
The E Atlantic TW is beginning to flare up some convection's. Let see if this is the beginning of the system that has been called for the models. 5 days it's not that far for the island to be watching it.
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Quoting AllStar17:
Shocker:
"HOWEVER...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND PRESSURES HAVE NOT FALLEN MUCH OVER THIS REGION."

They have said that same exact sentence for about 10 consecutive TWO's now.


you are absolutely right about that
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thinking 93L will go north of Nic/Hon and towards the yucatan.
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I say if there is any LLCOC it on the NW side of the system
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Anyway, I'm out for a while. 93L may not be closed at the surface yet, but it's going to get really close by the end of the day if not before then.


I agree. Have a good day!
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Mississippiwx,
+1, agreed... Though it will Form, if any formation occurs, Tomorrow or AM Friday, thats the time frame...

Harvey possible out of 93L...
Irene Possible out of pre-97L/Tropical Wave...
Jose could be right before August ends...
Katia probably in September...
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Anyway, I'm out for a while. 93L may not be closed at the surface yet, but it's going to get really close by the end of the day if not before then.
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huge!
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Tropical Update With Video
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Quoting MississippiWx:
If or when a closed low develops, it's going to be above 15N. Assuming that occurs, it might could sneak north of Honduras and Nicaragua.



I get the same feeling about it developing above 15N, just hard to call right now, time will tell!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3060
Quoting MississippiWx:
If or when a closed low develops, it's going to be above 15N. Assuming that occurs, it might could sneak north of Honduras and Nicaragua.



Yes that's still possible, which is why Belize should keep monitoring the system. However, the low-level steering flow does turn more WSW after 78W. We'll see how 93L responds. Without significant strengthening, it will likely succumb to that flow.

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Hows life in the South Gro?
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NASA101,
Well first of all there's no mention of the the Tropical wave by the NHC becuase there outlooks are for 48 HOURS OUT, not 120 or MORE out... It will likely be mentioned on Saturday or Sunday...
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If or when a closed low develops, it's going to be above 15N. Assuming that occurs, it might could sneak north of Honduras and Nicaragua.

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Quoting hydrus:
The CMC has the wave further south than the other models..

At 144 hours it is near Hispaniola seems similar to me?
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Quoting Levi32:
Definitely not looking good for a surface circulation.



Well, there certainly is nothing to find where they are going! LOL.
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Quoting NASA101:
The FACT here is that the AOI in the eastern ATL is not even hatched by the NHC and so all these talks about model runs 240+ hours out is a little non-sensical..

Remember what models were initially predicting with 92L and 93L..!!



It is most definitely not non-sensical, regardless of how far out it may be. A model run displays features for good reason, so cannot be discounted.

Also, 92L and 93L never had all of the reliable models forecasting development into at least a strong TS consistently, which this wave does have. Forecasts are used because they are needed to give adequate warning to residents.
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Quoting Grothar:


AAAHH. That's too far out! (How you doing PP?)


Doing well Gro. Yeah it is too far out however, there are several accomplices showing the same crazy wacky forecast. Doom meter is a little higher than normal.
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93L Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128865
Definitely not looking good for a surface circulation.

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Quoting scott39:
Then why do models simulate TCs developing past 3 to 5 days? Are they going off the current conditions? TIA for your help.


Models are initialized off of current conditions and then use physics to predict how those conditions will evolve in the future. Sometimes those predictions will support a TC, and thus a TC will develop. Obviously, these predictions are not always right.
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Quoting audreyritalillyLa44:
WELL said Grothar. I have been following this blog for a couple years and really loved watching and hearing others predictions. I FOUND SOMETHINGS rather boring and some very intelligent. So I decided to join this blog a week ago and post a few things and low and behold someone was mocking my handel. Im a big boy and can handel all that silliness.but im still going to take someone to task on personal insults. Most on here are not like that and provide helpful, and informed info,but the 10 percent personal attackers please go on facebook and do your thing there. Thats more of your forte anyway.


theres a lot of kids in here. just so you know
Quoting Patrap:
There is a tingling going up my leg as I write

Maybe urine Luck ?


if its going up, maybe hes upside down
Quoting NASA101:
The FACT here is that the AOI in the eastern ATL is not even hatched by the NHC and so all these talks about model runs 240+ hours out is a little non-sensical..

Remember what models were initially predicting with 92L and 93L..!!

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Quoting Levi32:
Strange is that the recon is reporting a dewpoint of -8C at 300 geopotential meters, which is 11% relative humidity at the 23C air temperature. I question that the atmosphere is actually that dry.
Well if it is, good luck to try getting convection to fire in that air mass.
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Quoting Levi32:


Yes. Upper-level features in the tropics are something that global models struggle with, and only so much can be discerned about the future from looking at current water vapor imagery.
Then why do models simulate TCs developing past 3 to 5 days? Are they going off the current conditions? TIA for your help.
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The CMC has the wave further south than the other models..
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Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128865
Quoting Levi32:


Well it's a tropical wave so some kind of pressure fall along a latitudinal line is to be expected. It has been an area of low pressure for a while. What we're looking for is for it to close off a circulation.


Thank you
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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