Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Clearwater, SPLBeater...
Both of you guys are suggesting the Obvious and Non-Obvious,
First of all 93L is a WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, though it DOESNT have a LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION... Its just a mid level circulation...


Weak Low...
No LLC, which means NO TC... this also means 93L may look good, but it has much more work to do than we realize...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
12z ECMWF pretty much destroys the wave signature over DR and Cuba.

Quiet for the next week.
What website are you using, on Raleigh it says updates don't began until 3:20PM?
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Quoting WxLogic:


Where you get those... I take from a paying site?


From the old PSU site.
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12Z EURO - 120 hrs
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 276
Quoting zparkie:
African dust storms? they just fizzle out, looks good one day, then scatters out and just becomes a bunch of rain storms, if this keeps up no hurricanes this year ya hoo, just imagine how embarassed the NHC will be spending millions to tell us how many hurricanes this year? They just might make a couple of them up just for the hell of it to save face.
yep we are going to make up that 13 hurricanes formed in 2011 but nobody saw them for they were invisible hurricanes hey maybe we can overlay sat image with a hurricane 13 times before nov 30 just to fulfill the forecast

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
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Quoting Levi32:


Yup. Gotta love it when the ECMWF takes us on a rollercoaster.



Where you get those... I take from a paying site?
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Quoting FLdewey:


heh heh... heh heh heh.

(That was my GWB laugh... sounded better over here)
Gee, it sounded like Beavis to me...
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12z ECMWF pretty much destroys the wave signature over DR and Cuba.

Quiet for the next week.
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12Z ECMWF running
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Cloudburst2011,
im suggesting that 93L misses Honduras(Just scrapes the northern coast then head WSW into Southern Yucatan area... my time frame would be correct from what im suggesting...
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
12z ECMWF does not develop the African wave through 150 hours.

Drags it over Hispaniola.


Yup. Gotta love it when the ECMWF takes us on a rollercoaster.

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Quoting presslord:


he's the perfect candidate for all those who thought George W. Bush was just a little too cerebral....


roflmao!!! bahahha!
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It has sort of become an instant gratification world with our younger generations in this new era of information and constant statistics and the Blog is no exception.......Some of our bloggers want "instant" hurricanes, or instant cat 5 landfalls, and some of our bloggers actually sound more like computers than human beings...........Go figure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ATCF says 93L's pressure has, er, risen 1 MB again:

AL, 93, 2011081718, , BEST, 0, 150N, 752W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13537
Quoting SPLbeater:
how are they not seeing a LLC? clearly visible on satellite imagery, with thunderstorms rotating aboutLink
I wonder how one can see a surface circulation on "Visible Satelite Imagery" According to NHC, no low pressure either. But, I will give you that it does indeed look good.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
12z ECMWF does not develop the African wave through 150 hours.

Drags it over Hispaniola.
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Quoting presslord:


he's the perfect candidate for all those who thought George W. Bush was just a little too cerebral....


oh, press, I love that response! +++1000
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Quoting tampahurricane:
Interesting the 10 day forecast for the Tampa Bay area has some kind of low of our cost bringing 30 MPH winds to the whole area.
Link



That would be a tropical storm.



Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5405
93L is officially passed 75W now...
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Timeline for the next 7 days:
Today:
93L continues to organize and is upped to 50% at 8PM TWO
pre97L makes it's way toward the Caribbean islands

Tomorrow:
93L organizes further, is upped to 70%, and recon finds a closed low, TD 8 forms Parallel to 16 N 250 Miles ENE of Honduras Coastline.
Pre97l continues toward the Caribbean islands

Friday:
TD 8 is Named Harvey and peaks out as a 65 mph while scraping the northern Coast of honduras, then begins to turn WSW and goes into Central America...
pre97L is 300 Miles to the east of the caribbean islands

Saturday:
Harvey Dies out...
pre97L is given a 10% by the NHC as it sits just east of the Islands

Sunday:
Pre97L becomes 97L, is given a 20% chance... It begins to moisten it's enviroment and flares up disorganized convection during DMAX and begins to steadily Organize...

Monday: 97L continues to organize and is given a 40% chacne by the NHC, and that night is upped further to 50%

Tuesday: 97L makes it's way between PR and Hispanoila, still at 50%... It downgraded to 40% that night...

Wednesday: 97L Begins to deeply organize and it appears that a LLC has formed... its given a 70% chance...

Thursday: 97L is given a 90%, recon flies into it and finds a Closed low... Td 9 Forms... TS Irene is named shortly after over the eastern Bahamas....

Friday:
Irene continues to strengthen as it nears the SE Coast...


Saturday: Catergory 5 Irene heads directly to Miami FLORIDA (I said FLORIDA, everyone panic)

Sunday: WE ARE ALL DOOM!
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i think they'll find something south of Haiti/Jamaica
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Quoting tampahurricane:
Interesting the 10 day forecast for the Tampa Bay area has some kind of low of our cost bringing 30+ MPH winds to the whole area.
Link
,you mean this????
img src="map wnd day10 3usse enus 440x297">
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Quoting tampahurricane:
Interesting the 10 day forecast for the Tampa Bay area has some kind of low of our cost bringing 30+ MPH winds to the whole area.
Link


That would probably be Irene ...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
African dust storms? they just fizzle out, looks good one day, then scatters out and just becomes a bunch of rain storms, if this keeps up no hurricanes this year ya hoo, just imagine how embarassed the NHC will be spending millions to tell us how many hurricanes this year? They just might make a couple of them up just for the hell of it to save face.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting uptxcoast:
Rick Perry does not believe in Global Warming..
(Maybe he should spend more time in Texas...)

Texas Gov. Rick Perry, the red-hot candidate for the Republican president nomination, scoffed at global warming at a breakfast meeting with business leaders in Bedford, N.H., this morning.

Perry said the whole concept of global warming was based on scientists manipulating data, according to the Associated Press.

That view puts Perry outside of Republican orthodoxy that recognizes the global warming phenomenon but holds that any role of human contributions to warming is still unknown.

Perry also told the gathering that the federal government shouldn’t spend a lot of money pursuing scientific theories.

Link


he's the perfect candidate for all those who thought George W. Bush was just a little too cerebral....
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Quoting tampahurricane:
Interesting the 10 day forecast for the Tampa Bay area has some kind of low of our cost bringing 30+ MPH winds to the whole area.
Link
That seems reasonable, since the latest model runs have whatever develops from our AOI off the East Coast of FL. hence the Northeast winds.
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426. Gorty
Next system is the one to watch for the east coast. Heck, I even have to watch it and I am in New England.
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Quoting tampahurricane:
Interesting the 10 day forecast for the Tampa Bay area has some kind of low of our cost bringing 30 MPH winds to the whole area.
Link
I wonder what model they use to get the forecast... I imagine it's NOGAPS
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Quoting wolftribe2009:
thinking 93L will go north of Nic/Hon and towards the yucatan.
its heading straight for nic hon region of central america its moving fast and therefore time is not on its side at the moment regardless of dev heavy rains gusty winds will impact the region this is not the one
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
You didn't have to be a meteorologist to know the dry air in the Caribbean was going to give 93L problems. Looks can be deceiving.
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Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Thanks for watching, sorry about the voice issues today, me and a couple of friends were out trout fishing all night!! LOL WOW i'm tired!!
That's ok, I understand every word you said, I would have the same issues if I did a video since I have bad allergies and sinus, trout fishing aye, man I haven't been fishing since last year.
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Interesting the 10 day forecast for the Tampa Bay area has some kind of low of our cost bringing 30+ MPH winds to the whole area.
Link
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

You mean to tell me you have no more desire to thoroughly push your personal agenda upon people who happen to disagree with your ideology? Really?

Sounds like someone might be throwing in the towel for the day.

Experience tells me that when you retreat from a discussion about AGW with others, you simply fell short of the task.

You can't measure up with everyone, as much as you think you can.

My "personal agenda" is to leave the planet a better place than it was when I received it, or at least no worse. What's yours?

P.S.-I'm flattered, as always, by your continuing obsession attention to my every comment; it lets me know how much you truly care. ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13537
Timeline for the next 7 days:
Today:
93L continues to organize and is upped to 50% at 8PM TWO
pre97L makes it's way toward the Caribbean islands

Tomorrow:
93L organizes further, is upped to 70%, and recon finds a closed low, TD 8 forms Parallel to 16 N 250 Miles ENE of Honduras Coastline.
Pre97l continues toward the Caribbean islands

Friday:
TD 8 is Named Harvey and peaks out as a 65 mph while scraping the northern Coast of honduras, then begins to turn WSW and goes into Central America...
pre97L is 300 Miles to the east of the caribbean islands

Saturday:
Harvey Dies out...
pre97L is given a 10% by the NHC as it sits just east of the Islands

Sunday:
Pre97L becomes 97L, is given a 20% chance... It begins to moisten it's enviroment and flares up disorganized convection during DMAX and begins to steadily Organize...

Monday: 97L continues to organize and is given a 40% chacne by the NHC, and that night is upped further to 50%

Tuesday: 97L makes it's way between PR and Hispanoila, still at 50%... It downgraded to 40% that night...

Wednesday: 97L Begins to deeply organize and it appears that a LLC has formed... its given a 70% chance...

Thursday: 97L is given a 90%, recon flies into it and finds a Closed low... Td 9 Forms... TS Irene is named shortly after over the eastern Bahamas....

Friday:
Irene continues to strengthen as it nears the SE Coast...
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The tropical wave located near 35W continues to become very slowly better organized.
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HH is starting there aproach to the NW sector of the system
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notice that both Franklin and Gert started with a pressure of 1012 mb
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how are they not seeing a LLC? clearly visible on satellite imagery, with thunderstorms rotating aboutLink
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hey guys now lok at the TWD tis is what WALTON had to say
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING S OF HAITI ALONG 18N72W TO 12N74W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CLEAR MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AROUND
THE AXIS NEAR 15N...BUT A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS
NOT FORMED AT THIS TIME
. ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE BETWEEN 71W-77W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN
72W-78W. A SMALL CLUSTER OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS S OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 17N-18N BETWEEN 70W-71W. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

ok that bit
"BUT A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS
NOT FORMED AT THIS TIME"
this mean that it has a surface circulation but it not well defined hmm quite diffrent from the TWO

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION
AND PRESSURES HAVE NOT FALLEN MUCH OVER THIS REGION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT
IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH.

"THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION"

I think I would go with WALTON's TWD

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TCU going up near the COC. That RHU reading must have been false.

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Thank You Jeremy, very well explained.
Thanks for watching, sorry about the voice issues today, me and a couple of friends were out trout fishing all night!! LOL WOW i'm tired!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.