Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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Quoting jpsb:
Sadly politics has perverted government science. A carbon tax would meant billions if not trillions of dollars for government. I think gov just can't resist the temptation of trillions in new revenue. So I tend to go with the scientists that do not have a dog in the fight, so to speak.

There are a number of natural mechanisms that can explain the little warming we saw 10 years ago without inventing a crisis that gives gov more power and more of our hard earned monies.

Just my 2 cents but I think this is all about power and money and has very little to do with climate.
aleays the conspiracy theory!
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Finally getting to the top half.

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Quoting Waltanater:

Saturday: Irene becomes a Category 5 Hurricane and completely devastates Miami...then New Orleans!
Kinda like Katrina...
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
soon you will tell us its going to 18 81 but its not it will not pass 17 n and it will be impacting coast of nic/hon within next 24 hrs if it don't slow down and i mean slow down right now not 12 or 24 hrs from now

how do you know that stop putting word in my mouth
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Quoting hydrus:
My thoughts exactly Pulse..I do believe whatever becomes of this wave will hit the U.S.


That ridge on the 12Z is a B*&#*.! Looking beyond the models, the now positive NAO backs it up.
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looks are so deceiving, actually looks like it could be minimal hurricane
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7702
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


There is no real "swing". The track has shifted only slightly causing it to not develop.


That is not my point. You said the Euro is insisting on not developing this when it has been swinging back and forth on development from run to run.

I am more concerened about the pattern the Euro is showing which would put the U.S. (Florida and Gulf) in danger

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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Clearwater, sorry didnt read post right...
I get that way when im in here too long.
Imma Gonna Take a Break...


Itsa ME Luigi??


NP, thanks for the acknowledgment.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
All due respect however, the 12Z ECMWF is not too far off from it's 00Z run, difference being that it goes over Hispaniola instead of just North of it. In the grand scheme of things the islands are rather small and only a slight change can have huge implications.

00Z run

My thoughts exactly Pulse..I do believe whatever becomes of this wave will hit the U.S.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
It's now at 216 hrs. still waiting to see where its at 240hrs.





so it went from a possibility of 973 mb to nothing in the 216 frame..thats comforting..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14606
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
All due respect however, the 12Z ECMWF is not too far off from it's 00Z run, difference being that it goes over Hispaniola instead of just North of it. In the grand scheme of things the islands are rather small and only a slight change can have huge implications.

00Z run



Exactly, and the latest gfs 00z, has it in about the same general area (of course may not develop at all). My thought is that now two, maybe three models (I think the NAM) is on board well, have a tc near the island and either on off the coast of FL in about 8 or 9 day. GFS has been east and west of FL on the last several runs, but keeps in the general area. Interesting to watch, in any event.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
HH is flying Nward now stronger winds recorded
all ive seen so far is a swath of 15 mph winds as they head north where are you seeing these "stronger " winds
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POSS T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/93L
MARK
15.21N/75.13W
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Quoting ncstorm:


I already saw the run and it did not produce a 973mb..is there a glitch in the run perhaps?
It's now at 216 hrs. still waiting to see where its at 240hrs.



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Quoting Ivanhater:


The Euro has been swinging back and forth. Last night's 00z run developed it as well as the night before. The GFS has been the consistent one so far.


There is no real "swing". The track has shifted only slightly causing it to not develop.
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Pretty scary pattern for Florida and the Gulf being advertised on the 12z Euro

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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Timeline for the next 7 days:
Today:
93L continues to organize and is upped to 50% at 8PM TWO
pre97L makes it's way toward the Caribbean islands

Tomorrow:
93L organizes further, is upped to 70%, and recon finds a closed low, TD 8 forms Parallel to 16 N 250 Miles ENE of Honduras Coastline.
Pre97l continues toward the Caribbean islands

Friday:
TD 8 is Named Harvey and peaks out as a 65 mph while scraping the northern Coast of honduras, then begins to turn WSW and goes into Central America...
pre97L is 300 Miles to the east of the caribbean islands

Saturday:
Harvey Dies out...
pre97L is given a 10% by the NHC as it sits just east of the Islands

Sunday:
Pre97L becomes 97L, is given a 20% chance... It begins to moisten it's enviroment and flares up disorganized convection during DMAX and begins to steadily Organize...

Monday: 97L continues to organize and is given a 40% chacne by the NHC, and that night is upped further to 50%

Tuesday: 97L makes it's way between PR and Hispanoila, still at 50%... It downgraded to 40% that night...

Wednesday: 97L Begins to deeply organize and it appears that a LLC has formed... its given a 70% chance...

Thursday: 97L is given a 90%, recon flies into it and finds a Closed low... Td 9 Forms... TS Irene is named shortly after over the eastern Bahamas....

Friday:
Irene continues to strengthen as it nears the SE Coast...

Saturday: Irene becomes a Category 5 Hurricane and completely devastates Miami...then New Orleans!
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1455
All due respect however, the 12Z ECMWF is not too far off from it's 00Z run, difference being that it goes over Hispaniola instead of just North of it. In the grand scheme of things the islands are rather small and only a slight change can have huge implications.

00Z run

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
The run is not finish yet.


I already saw the run and it did not produce a 973mb..is there a glitch in the run perhaps?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14606
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Clearwater, SPLBeater...
Both of you guys are suggesting the Obvious and Non-Obvious,
First of all 93L is a WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, though it DOESNT have a LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION... Its just a mid level circulation...


Weak Low...
No LLC, which means NO TC... this also means 93L may look good, but it has much more work to do than we realize...
Pretty sure I wrote the same thing in reply the post from splbeater.
No surface circulation. I was just commenting on the idea that one cannot determine a surface circulation from visible satellite imagery.
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Quoting ncstorm:
this image keeps popping up in todays run for the ECWMF at 216 hour and then it will say file not found..anyone else seeing this?

The run is not finish yet.
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Quoting hydrus:
Would you provide a link if you have time please...


You can use this one:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwf.html
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


I think 93L COC is just NNE of there near 15.9N 75.1W
soon you will tell us its going to 18 81 but its not it will not pass 17 n and it will be impacting coast of nic/hon within next 24 hrs if it don't slow down and i mean slow down right now not 12 or 24 hrs from now
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this image keeps popping up in todays run for the ECWMF at 216 hour and then it will say file not found..anyone else seeing this?

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14606
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
If the ECMWF insists on the system not developing, I'd keep an eye on it. This was the same situation many other times this season with the GFS forecasting a monster system and the ECMWF showing virtually nothing.


The Euro has been swinging back and forth. Last night's 00z run developed it as well as the night before. The GFS has been the consistent one so far.
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If the ECMWF insists on the system not developing, I'd keep an eye on it. This was the same situation many other times this season with the GFS forecasting a monster system and the ECMWF showing virtually nothing.
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HH is flying Nward now stronger winds recorded
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Quoting robert88:
Hispaniola tearing it up...

Windshield wipers on.
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they'll be something to look at tomorrow
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4362
Quoting FLdewey:


Ahhh... so you see the similarity between the two.
More than I could possibly describe! LOL!!!
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Quoting WxLogic:


Where you get those... I take from a paying site?


Nope. Plymouth State Model Graphics - Make your own
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These models have been spitting out numerous possible solutions for the African wave. The 12z ECMWF run just exhibits another possibility.
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Quoting WxLogic:
12Z ECMWF running
Would you provide a link if you have time please...
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I beleive the ecmwf did the same thing on yesterdays 12z run but on the 00 run last night it showed the storm again..computer models gotta love em lol
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
What website are you using, on Raleigh it says updates don't began until 3:20PM?
Disregard, it updated early.
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Hispaniola tearing it up...

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Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF says 93L's pressure has, er, risen 1 MB again:

AL, 93, 2011081718, , BEST, 0, 150N, 752W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,


I think 93L COC is just NNE of there near 15.9N 75.1W
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Repost:

Tropical Weather Update with Video

In case anyone missed the first post!!! Thanks for everyone who has checked it out and offered kind words, it is appreciated!!! See you guys later!!
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Clearwater, SPLBeater...
Both of you guys are suggesting the Obvious and Non-Obvious,
First of all 93L is a WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, though it DOESNT have a LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION... Its just a mid level circulation...


Weak Low...
No LLC, which means NO TC... this also means 93L may look good, but it has much more work to do than we realize...



and may run out of time be for it runs in too land
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12Z EURO - 168 hrs

Remaining weak and look at the high pressure (1016 mb contour) extending over SE USA

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Quoting USAFwxguy:
850 vort looks a bit elongated:


And look at the Atlantic tropical wave.
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Be back later...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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