Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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Quoting kmanislander:
The HH is climbing out now. Frankly, I never understood why it went in in the first place.

nope there not
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I bet 93L will work the MLC down to the surface tonight and be upgraded tomorrow.
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What a difference a couple of hours make!
93 and dry this morning, now it's----

Temp 77F
Humid 94%
Winds WEST 18 mph
THUNDERSTORM.

Got to love Tropical Weather.

Have not had one of these for weeks!
NICE!
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Quoting kmanislander:
The HH is climbing out now. Frankly, I never understood why it went in in the first place.


They need the overtime.
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I starting to wonder now about the "no evidence of surface circulation".... I mean, not a kink in the flow? This seems a bit different to me from "no West winds"....

On top of that, this seems very much a problem this year with systems we have been tracking. What seems to be vigorous midlevel activity is not complemented by surface circulation. What do you think is causing that???
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The HH is climbing out now. Frankly, I never understood why it went in in the first place.
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i have also noticed that the weather channel is over cautius with the models output ,only saying that the models want to develop this african wave, but it is to early to say what may happen
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Please correct me if im wrong but the 00 run of ecmwf showed the system out in atlantic forming and movin north of the islands and becoming a hurricane heading for the SE coast//// on the 12z run it shows it moving across the islands passing south of cuba and re forming as it heads thru yucatan channel?? So IMO it didnt drop it.. it just weakens it because of land interaction and starts developin it in the channel right???
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1386
Quoting SWLACajun:
Taz, what exactly does that mean for the Gulf Coast? Still learning.



likey more dry weather
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115256
Time: 19:06:30Z
Coordinates: 15.7333N 76.0167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.2 mb (~ 20.56 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,199 meters (~ 10,495 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1011.9 mb (~ 29.88 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 48° at 15 knots (From the NE at ~ 17.2 mph)
Air Temp: 8.6°C (~ 47.5°F)
Dew Pt: -20.1°C (~ -4.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 15 knots (~ 17.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 21 knots (~ 24.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Altitude ( on the way home already?
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7930
Quoting USAFwxguy:
12Z Euro is unsetlling actually.

You see the 850mb vort just near the west tip of Cuba, after having gone through the Yucutan Channel



Meanwhile you see the weakness in the 588 height contour that put the North and Western GoM at risk:



can you tell me please if this model was updated 8pm last night? i think that is when it happens...trying to see how many days in a row it is calling for this, TIA

Link
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The models are like a circus this year. i have never seen so many inconsistencies. is it that the information they are get from the deep tropics are not reliable? there is another chance to make it right with the african wave. we will know in a few days.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I see what you mean, ultimately I think it will depend on the strength of the storm, since the Euro shows a weaker storm it will go west, a stronger storm would go more north west.


it basically show two different scenarios with the islands and went with the west option..LOL..interesting week ahead..
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Quoting USAFwxguy:
Coordinates: 15.4N 76.5W
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1010 mb (extrapolated)
Estimated Surface Wind: From 50° at 20 knots (From the NE at ~ 23.0 mph)

NE winds there suggest maybe some circulation back the east of that spot, maybe near 75W, 15N



Just trying to understand, in relation to the system where would you expect to find west winds ? Also, in order for it to be considered closed would you have to find winds from N, NE, E, SE, S,SW,W etc ?
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Quoting twincomanche:
That ain't exactly a conspiracy theory. There are billions out there to be siphoned off. How about we do what makes sense not artificially raising the cost to force people to do things.

It's gonna cost a heckuva lot more to deal with the issue later than the relative pittance it would cost to avoid it now.
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Quoting sarahjola:
boy you just gotta love the global warming crowd. they get so upset at those who don't believe in global warming, but never seem to care about those who do believe yet continue to trash this planet more than anyone else. as long as they admit it exsist right??? lol! i'll be back later when people might be talking tropics instead of crap!

To whom are you referring?
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Quoting ncstorm:
I really think the latest ECWMF run is tampered..I saw that image where it posted a 973mb on the coast of florida and then it went to absolute nothing..If the 18Z GFS shows nothing then I might be inclined to believe the ECWMF run..
I see what you mean, ultimately I think it will depend on the strength of the storm, since the Euro shows a weaker storm it will go west, a stronger storm would go more north west.
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Taz, what exactly does that mean for the Gulf Coast? Still learning.
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Quoting uptxcoast:
Rick Perry does not believe in Global Warming..
(Maybe he should spend more time in Texas...)

Texas Gov. Rick Perry, the red-hot candidate for the Republican president nomination, scoffed at global warming at a breakfast meeting with business leaders in Bedford, N.H., this morning.

Perry said the whole concept of global warming was based on scientists manipulating data, according to the Associated Press.

That view puts Perry outside of Republican orthodoxy that recognizes the global warming phenomenon but holds that any role of human contributions to warming is still unknown.

Perry also told the gathering that the federal government shouldn’t spend a lot of money pursuing scientific theories.

Link
hahahahaahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahhahahahahahahahhahahahhahahahahahahhahaha hahaha,that was a good belly laugh, the things that come out of the Gov of Texas mouths.
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La Niña Watch Issued
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115256
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Euro 00z:



Euro 12z:


I don't understand how the Euro goes from one run showing the Subtropical Ridge hanging off the East Coast, to the ridge extending into the Central Plains, how many times has it done that already?
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I really think the latest ECWMF run is tampered..I saw that image where it posted a 973mb on the coast of florida and then it went to absolute nothing..If the 18Z GFS shows nothing then I might be inclined to believe the ECWMF run..
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:
all ive seen so far is a swath of 15 mph winds as they head north where are you seeing these "stronger " winds
The decoded Hurricane Hunter info is actually showing winds of 21-23 kts.
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Quoting USAFwxguy:
starting to get that look
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Euro 00z:



Euro 12z:




12Z builds in much stronger ridging which likely causes the cyclone to move over the islands, remain weak and on a more westward course. However, and again, not too much different track wise with the exception of the end result.
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Quoting presslord:


he's the perfect candidate for all those who thought George W. Bush was just a little too cerebral....

I can't stop laughing....
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525. beell
Dropsonde
Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
1013mb (Surface) 28.4C (83.1F) 24.9C (76.8F)
948mb 23.2C (73.8F) 22.2C (72.0F)
885mb 19.4C (66.9F) 16.7C (62.1F)
850mb 18.6C (65.5F) Approximately 9C (48F)
797mb 16.4C (61.5F) Approximately 0C (32F)
755mb 13.8C (56.8F) Approximately 4C (39F)
746mb 13.6C (56.5F) Approximately -3C (27F)
730mb 12.6C (54.7F) Approximately -3C (27F)

697mb 9.4C (48.9F) Approximately 2C (36F)
675mb 7.4C (45.3F) Approximately -2C (28F)
669mb 7.0C (44.6F) Approximately 1C (34F)
638mb 4.8C (40.6F) Approximately -2C (28F)
625mb 4.0C (39.2F) Approximately -9C (16F)
615mb 3.2C (37.8F) Approximately -8C (18F)
597mb 2.2C (36.0F) Approximately -16C (3F)
590mb 1.4C (34.5F) -3.5C (25.7F)

A few HDOBS at flight level
Time: 17:25:00Z
Coordinates: 14.8333N 74.1333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 977.2 mb (~ 28.86 inHg)
Air Temp: 23.0C (~ 73.4F)
Dew Pt: -8.1C (~ 17.4F)

Time: 17:49:30Z
Coordinates: 13.85N 74.95W
Acft. Static Air Press: 977.3 mb (~ 28.86 inHg)
Air Temp: 23.7C (~ 74.7F)
Dew Pt: -6.8C (~ 19.8F)

Time: 18:41:00Z
Coordinates: 14.8167N 76.5W
Acft. Static Air Press: 976.8 mb (~ 28.84 inHg)
Air Temp: 23.9C (~ 75.0F)
Dew Pt: -5.0C (~ 23.0F)
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Quoting USAFwxguy:
12Z Euro is unsetlling actually.

You see the 850mb vort just near the west tip of Cuba, after having gone through the Yucutan Channel



Meanwhile you see the weakness in the 588 height contour that put the North and Western GoM at risk:



Will be interesting to see how the 12Z UKM does.
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Quoting USAFwxguy:
12Z Euro is unsetlling actually.

You see the 850mb vort just near the west tip of Cuba, after having gone through the Yucutan Channel



Meanwhile you see the weakness in the 588 height contour that put the North and Western GoM at risk:

Uh oh, this could get interesting.

The overall  pattern (not necessarily the specifics mind you) still remind me of the setup for Ike (and probably Gustav to an extent as well).  That is, a weakness in the ridge gives the storm a chance to start moving more north, or northwest, then the weakness closes off and the storm gets pushed back generally westwards until it finds another opening to go north.
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Euro 00z:



Euro 12z:

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

how do you know that stop putting word in my mouth
ok iam wrong you are right so is it heading to the caymans yet or do u think it will go into nic/hon where its forecasted by the NHC to go
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does anyone know the last time this was updated please?

Link
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boy you just gotta love the global warming crowd. they get so upset at those who don't believe in global warming, but never seem to care about those who do believe yet continue to trash this planet more than anyone else. as long as they admit it exsist right??? lol! i'll be back later when people might be talking tropics instead of crap!
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Quoting Levi32:


Nope. Plymouth State Model Graphics - Make your own


Thanks
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The solutions put out by the models will change over the next few days. Hispaniola can not afford a direct impact; nevertheless, it seems the Carribean is in for a wild ride the rest of this season.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


From the old PSU site.


Thanks
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Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7930
Quoting jpsb:
Sadly politics has perverted government science. A carbon tax would meant billions if not trillions of dollars for government. I think gov just can't resist the temptation of trillions in new revenue. So I tend to go with the scientists that do not have a dog in the fight, so to speak.

There are a number of natural mechanisms that can explain the little warming we saw 10 years ago without inventing a crisis that gives gov more power and more of our hard earned monies.

Just my 2 cents but I think this is all about power and money and has very little to do with climate.
aleays the conspiracy theory!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.