Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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Quoting kmanislander:


Sorry, I have not been on for a few hours. Was he expecting the HH to find a TD out there ?


Yep.

Prime example of why you can't take a satellite image and make a claim. I'm more experienced than that and I shouldn't have made that statement, but I was too short on time to look at other observations.

It appears to be a TD on satellite, but it's apparently not even close at the present time.
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Quoting JeffMasters:
Sorry about that, we were upgrading some memory on a few key servers, and had a bit of a rough time for a few minutes with the blogs as a result.

Jeff Masters


Thanks, Doc. Happy to hear of the upgrades. Have a nice day!
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608. JRRP
Quoting WxLogic:


Will be interesting to see how the 12Z UKM does.

ukm
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607. Jax82
Order is Restored, thanks :)
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Quoting IKE:
10 day 12Z ECMWF....




While everone else is looking for "DOOM", I am still hoping for a little aquatic gift of love for us over in Texas. Even if it is just a few stray showers.....
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Quoting twincomanche:
Whatever. More official talking points. It's always somebody else fault. The problem is I don't see any answers from the Professor just adding to the problems. Out with all the rascals!


Must.......not........say......anything........
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604. JeffMasters (Admin)
Sorry about that, we were upgrading some memory on a few key servers, and had a bit of a rough time for a few minutes with the blogs as a result.

Jeff Masters
598

The HH is on the way home at cruise altitude. I posted that some time ago.
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Did the blog die? I was locked out for 5 whole minutes (panic!) and got the following message

Error 64: The specified network name is no longer available.

Lurking here is like watching "Real Housewives of xxx" is for my wife - addictive.

OK, back to lurking
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what is up with the blog today. couldn't post a minute ago and now its posting twice? also only half the screen showing.
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Does anybody think we'll have a new invest in the ATL very soon? Soon = Not later than tomorrow.
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Can someone please tell me what in the world the HH are doing they looked like they where heading home but now the back in the system
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12024
Don't forget the 00Z ECMWF Ensemble:

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Quoting Neapolitan:

To whom are you referring?
the al gore's, and obama's of this great nation. put it this way, there is only one man that believes in global warming and lives like he believes in it, and that is that actor guy. all the politicians who stand to make money off global warming have huge homes that burn all kinds of energy, ride in huge vehicles that burn all kinds of energy, leave their vehicles idoling while they are giving a speach about global warming(al gore)so its nice and cold when they get back in, don't shut off their lights for earth day like the people who follow these liars do. every single politician who claims to believe in global warming do nothing in the way of proving it or do nothing except try to pass bills that only call for more revenue.how about these politicians who care so much live by what they preach? maybe if they acted as if they believed in what they were saying people might start to take them seriously. but beyound that there is plenty studies that say global warming does not exsist, just as there are studies that say it does. no one can tell me that only the studies that claim it exsist are right, and the ones that claim it does not are wrong. that is a childish and senseless argument.
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Quoting pottery:

Not liking what I'm seeing.
I might have to change some Logistics......


You wanna talk tropical weather, we've had almost every morning in the 80's for weeks up here on the west Coast of Florida, and now over 30 inches of rain has fallen since late June. The ground is quite saturated as you might expect.
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there finding S too SSE winds
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115100
593. IKE
10 day 12Z ECMWF....


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Caribbean Hurricane Update for August 17th 2011.
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i think the HH is still in there
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115100
I guess the blog went down
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Quoting kmanislander:


Sorry, I have not been on for a few hours. Was he expecting the HH to find a TD out there ?


Yep.

Prime example of why you can't take a satellite image and make a claim. I'm more experienced than that and I shouldn't have made that statement, but I was too short on time to look at other observations.

It appears to be a TD on satellite, but it's apparently not even close at the present time.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
It has sort of become an instant gratification world with our younger generations in this new era of information and constant statistics and the Blog is no exception.......Some of our bloggers want "instant" hurricanes, or instant cat 5 landfalls, and some of our bloggers actually sound more like computers than human beings...........Go figure.
Did anybody read the link to astroturfing I posted yesterday? It was pretty informative...
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Quoting Neapolitan:

To whom are you referring?
the al gore's, and obama's of this great nation. put it this way, there is only one man that believes in global warming and lives like he believes in it, and that is that actor guy. all the politicians who stand to make money off global warming have huge homes that burn all kinds of energy, ride in huge vehicles that burn all kinds of energy, leave their vehicles idoling while they are giving a speach about global warming(al gore)so its nice and cold when they get back in, don't shut off their lights for earth day like the people who follow these liars do. every single politician who claims to believe in global warming do nothing in the way of proving it or do nothing except try to pass bills that only call for more revenue.how about these politicians who care so much live by what they preach? maybe if they acted as if they believed in what they were saying people might start to take them seriously. but beyound that there is plenty studies that say global warming does not exsist, just as there are studies that say it does. no one can tell me that only the studies that claim it exsist are right, and the ones that claim it does not are wrong. that is a childish and senseless argument.
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maybe later late night we may get an Upgrade from 93L or early morn by that time I think it should be near 17N 78W possibly moving WNW
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12024
If this kind of a pattern verifies in the tropics over the next couple of weeks, the Atlantic won't be able to help lighting up in a colorful fashion, as if the Pacific is void of activity, the air in the tropics has to rise somewhere, and that place is the Atlantic basin.

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Quoting kmanislander:


Sorry, I have not been on for a few hours. Was he expecting the HH to find a TD out there ?


Yep.

Prime example of why you can't take a satellite image and make a claim. I'm more experienced than that and I shouldn't have made that statement, but I was too short on time to look at other observations.

It appears to be a TD on satellite, but it's apparently not even close at the present time.
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Quoting pottery:

Not liking what I'm seeing.
I might have to change some Logistics......
Cross those fingers and toes...and have some faith
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Quoting pottery:

Not liking what I'm seeing.
I might have to change some Logistics......


It's all ball bearings these days.. hope you have nice weather :)
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Quoting cloudburst2011:



sometimes i cant figure those guys out ..a total waste of money..this wont amount to anything..
they were blogging this morning here on weather underg
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4589
Quoting tropicfreak:


Is misswx going to have crow?


Sorry, I have not been on for a few hours. Was he expecting the HH to find a TD out there ?
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Quoting barbados246:
Hope you love our tropical weather this weekend :)

Not liking what I'm seeing.
I might have to change some Logistics......
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I starting to wonder now about the "no evidence of surface circulation".... I mean, not a kink in the flow? This seems a bit different to me from "no West winds"....

On top of that, this seems very much a problem this year with systems we have been tracking. What seems to be vigorous midlevel activity is not complemented by surface circulation. What do you think is causing that???


Probably a number of factors some of which I will list but not in order of importance.

1. Dry air, a plague in nearly every early season. That has been a big factor this year.

2. Fast forward speed.

3. Stable atmospheric conditions aloft ( both the Caribbean and the Atlantic are presently below average for atmospheric instability ) and this also inhibits development.

Starting in a few days with the return of the MJO which promotes rising air the instability levels should increase along with atmospheric moisture content. We already have high SST and TCHP so I am expecting a period of heightened activity to run from the third week of August onwards.
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Link
check it out looks like invest93 is making a northwest turn
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Quoting pottery:
What a difference a couple of hours make!
93 and dry this morning, now it's----

Temp 77F
Humid 94%
Winds WEST 18 mph
THUNDERSTORM.

Got to love Tropical Weather.

Have not had one of these for weeks!
NICE!
Hope you love our tropical weather this weekend :)
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Time: 19:16:00Z
Coordinates: 15.5167N 75.3W
Acft. Static Air Press: 695.3 mb (~ 20.53 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,207 meters (~ 10,522 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1011.9 mb (~ 29.88 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 73° at 16 knots (From the ENE at ~ 18.4 mph)
Air Temp: 8.2°C (~ 46.8°F)
Dew Pt: -23.2°C (~ -9.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 17 knots (~ 19.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 34 knots (~ 39.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr (~ 0.16 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
Quoting hydrus:
Howdy Pott..Possible big storm brewing..

And about time, too!!
As long as I get a Sunny Saturday 20th, (crosses fingers, toes, eyebrows...)
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Quoting kmanislander:
The HH is climbing out now. Frankly, I never understood why it went in in the first place.


Is misswx going to have crow?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Problem is that this time around the ECMWF is developing it then not developing it, its flipfloping. The only reason it doesn't develop is due to interaction with Hispaniola, just like yesterday, if it shows a more northern path at the 00z you'll see a stronger system.


I don't think it has anything to do with Hispaniola. The lack of development relative to the other runs is noticeable long before the system reaches Hispaniola. The ECMWF is truly being a flopper right now. It will be interesting to see which solution it finally commits to. It is true that we have had long-range model consensus for development before, and it didn't happen. We won't really be able to say whether it will for ourselves until we see the wave west of 50W over the warm water.
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Quoting ncstorm:


18Z run means 5:30est when it was ran..


just found the start date and time on bottom, ty... it is strange to me...1800 when i was in the navy was 6pm not 5:30...but what is getting me is i have this particular loop in my favs on the puter...very similar run for last several days on that wave... i know it is way out there but not liking this scenerio
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I starting to wonder now about the "no evidence of surface circulation".... I mean, not a kink in the flow? This seems a bit different to me from "no West winds"....

On top of that, this seems very much a problem this year with systems we have been tracking. What seems to be vigorous midlevel activity is not complemented by surface circulation. What do you think is causing that???



The waves have usually been travelling at a good clip, sometimes in excess of 20 mph. That could interfere with development.
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Quoting pottery:
What a difference a couple of hours make!
93 and dry this morning, now it's----

Temp 77F
Humid 94%
Winds WEST 18 mph
THUNDERSTORM.

Got to love Tropical Weather.

Have not had one of these for weeks!
NICE!
Howdy Pott..Possible big storm brewing..
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
If the ECMWF insists on the system not developing, I'd keep an eye on it. This was the same situation many other times this season with the GFS forecasting a monster system and the ECMWF showing virtually nothing.


Problem is that this time around the ECMWF is developing it then not developing it, its flipfloping. The only reason it doesn't develop is due to interaction with Hispaniola, just like yesterday, if it shows a more northern path at the 00z you'll see a stronger system.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24021
Quoting tiggeriffic:


can you tell me please if this model was updated 8pm last night? i think that is when it happens...trying to see how many days in a row it is calling for this, TIA

Link


18Z run means 5:30est when it was ran..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15288

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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