Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I say 93L becomes a TD/or TS at 11pm tonight



olny if it can close off that low
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I say 93L becomes a TD/or TS at 11pm tonight
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
OK... looks like I may be in business again. I find it amazing this problem is still going on after weeks of the ISP techs trying to solve it...

To answer my own question, Greg does't look like a hurricane yet to me...

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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
looks like something going on in there!! DOOM!...lol


whats going on where
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Quoting robert88:
Not bad...might be a TD tomorrow.

looks like something going on in there!! DOOM!...lol
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Pipejazz you need firefox 6
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Quoting Drakoen:


The large gyre in the central atlantic near 35W will be there. NHC keeping tabs on it



oh ok
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
I don't think it likes the new memory chips...lol


yeah...i couldn't get on early...take back the new chips and give it back the Doritos....
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Is it me or do things seem rather "slow" for August?
Just seems there should be more activity now.
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Quoting Pipejazz:
blog always goes bonkers after PRWeathercenter enbeds the YouTube videos.


Let me guess, you're using Internet Explorer?
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New wave?


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Quoting Tazmanian:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 171545
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT WED 17 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-078

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 18/1800Z
B. AFXXX 02FFA INVEST
C. 18/1430Z
D. 15.0N 80.0W
E. 18/1730Z TO 18/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 19/1200Z,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0308A CYCLONE
C. 19/0800Z
D. 15.0N 82.50W
E. 19/1130Z TO 19/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITINOAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST AT
20/1800Z NEAR 15.0N 56.0W.




i dont get it whats at 15N 56W?


The large gyre in the central atlantic near 35W will be there. NHC keeping tabs on it
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Anyone have a forecast for the GOM? a "front" passed through I believe last night, water vapor had a "blob" in the GOM- any thoughts?
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blog always goes bonkers after PRWeathercenter enbeds the YouTube videos.
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Not bad...might be a TD tomorrow.

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Quoting Neapolitan:

I assume nothing of the sort; the comment was a self-contained factoid. In fact, it warrants repeating: it's going to cost vastly larger sums of money to repair the damage caused by ACC than it would cost now to avoid it. My only real assumption is that, people being people, no one will do a thing until it's too late.

Which, by the way, in some ways it already is.
What the hell does the Atlantic Coast Conference have to do with tropical storms, weather or economic crises caused by "global warming?" Just a question.................fading away
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GREG ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072011
200 PM PDT WED AUG 17 2011

...GREG CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN...FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 106.5W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
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Quoting wn1995:


Yes, that would make it a closed circulation, but NOT a depression until it has winds of at least 30 mph.


HH top surface winds are at 39mph
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I am convinced that this year CONUS will not go unscathed. The clock is ticking for CV season to yield impacts to the Carribean, Bahamas, and the US.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
if 93L is starting too go under a RI that could really help close off that low


wrong, has to be a developed, closed low for that
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000
NOUS42 KNHC 171545
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT WED 17 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-078

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 18/1800Z
B. AFXXX 02FFA INVEST
C. 18/1430Z
D. 15.0N 80.0W
E. 18/1730Z TO 18/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 19/1200Z,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0308A CYCLONE
C. 19/0800Z
D. 15.0N 82.50W
E. 19/1130Z TO 19/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITINOAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST AT
20/1800Z NEAR 15.0N 56.0W.




i dont get it whats at 15N 56W?
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What's new in the tropics?.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
How's Greg, btw? Any sign of a hurricane yet?


Looks like an eye feature is popping out.

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How's Greg, btw? Any sign of a hurricane yet?
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There is another bouy that 93L should passover at
17.003 N 81.501 W, Station 42057
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I want to sincerely apoligize to all I offended for my political remarks.There is no excuse for it and it will not ever happen again.Sometimes I allow my buttons to get pushed, again please except my apology!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Rapid Intensification is a process limited strictly to well-developed tropical storms, nothing less. Given that 93L is an invest with relatively high pressures and no surface circulation, the chances of 93L undergoing rapid intensification is nil.





ok but i do think that 93L is starting too rapidey ORGANIZED
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Quoting OviedoWatcher:
So, just to be clear, a closed circulation is when winds are found in all directions, but of any speed? So you could have 1 mph winds out of the west and that would still count?


Yes, that would make it a closed circulation, but NOT a depression until it has winds of at least 30 mph.
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Interestingly, the ECMWF ensembles also keep 93L north of Honduras, which is still possible, but will depend on a couple of things, namely the location of its surface circulation if it forms one, and how strong the system gets before 83W.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Caribbean Update*Informe de Huracanes y Tormentas en Español



Caribbean Hurricane Update

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I hope all you guys reporting and poofing the democratic supporter are also reporting and poofing twincomanche, who made the republican supporting comments that caused the democratic supporter to support in the first place....

Be fair in your poofing, now....

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726. srada
Quoting WxLogic:
12Z ECMWF Ensemble:



hmmm, that speaks east coast
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The 500mb pattern depicted by the 12z ECMWF ensembles in 9 days is classic for a southeast U.S. hurricane landfall.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting Tazmanian:
if 93L is starting too go under a RI that could really help close off that low


Rapid Intensification is a process limited strictly to well-developed tropical storms, nothing less. Given that 93L is an invest with relatively high pressures and no surface circulation, the chances of 93L undergoing rapid intensification are nil.

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Quoting Tazmanian:
if 93L is starting too go under a RI that could really help close off that low



I think it's getting there !!!
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Not sure how it will affect the tropics but I am hearing the High Pressure that has been over Texas forever will move Northwest to Colorado and Wyoming areas in 7 to 10 days?
I think that would open up the western part of the gulf.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


There are no indications of any surface circulation developing. This is accurate considering there is a buoy in the vicinity of 93L that does not reflect any lowering pressures indicative of a developing tropical system.

It is in an environment where it has at least a chance to work one down, especially since it is out of the strong trade winds in the Eastern and Central Caribbean.

Shouldn't go up any at the 8PM TWO.

OK.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



not from what i can tell from the HH reports
what altitude did they get to when they were pulling out and then turned around to go back in? it doesn't seem like they have been in for the usual time?
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Quoting vince1:

You assume any action we take here in the states will have a net worldwide benefit, much less will China and India see it the same way.

I assume nothing of the sort; the comment was a self-contained factoid. In fact, it warrants repeating: it's going to cost vastly larger sums of money to repair the damage caused by ACC than it would cost now to avoid it. My only real assumption is that, people being people, no one will do a thing until it's too late.

Which, by the way, in some ways it already is.
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if 93L is starting too go under a RI that could really help close off that low
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good Afternoon.
Does 93L have ANY surface reflection?


...only if the ocean is smooth as a mirror.

heh heh heh
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good Afternoon.
Does 93L have ANY surface reflection?


There are no indications of any surface circulation developing. This is accurate considering there is a buoy in the vicinity of 93L that does not reflect any lowering pressures indicative of a developing tropical system.

It is in an environment where it has at least a chance to work one down, especially since it is out of the strong trade winds in the Eastern and Central Caribbean.

Shouldn't go up any at the 8PM TWO.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Please tell me the blog isn't having problems again...
I don't think it likes the new memory chips...lol
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Quoting utilaeastwind:


Looks like it is closing up now at 15.1 N 75.1W



not from what i can tell from the HH reports
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Quoting sarahjola:
how so??? tia
colored water vapor loop might be causing alittle shear on 93 the tw at 32 is slowly organizing not sure how its going to interact with the ull to its nw
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Quoting Tazmanian:



nop no close low


Looks like it is closing up now at 15.1 N 75.1W
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12Z ECMWF Ensemble:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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